Feyenoord U21 v De Graafschap U21 prediction · U21 Divisie 1

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 03:35

Feyenoord U21 4–0 De Graafschap U21 FEYENOORD U21 WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Feyenoord U21 win~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.326

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Feyenoord U21 are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Feyenoord U21 54%, draw 20%, De Graafschap U21 27%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Feyenoord U21 v De Graafschap U21Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Feyenoord U21 win54%

Draw20%

De Graafschap U21 win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:15

RoundFall season · matchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Feyenoord U21

De Graafschap U21

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · U21 Divisie 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · feyenoord u21 winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:42 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Feyenoord U21 a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.4, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Feyenoord U21 v De Graafschap U21~~2.06 – 1.39

~~Form · U21 Divisie 1 this season · since 29 Aug~~W5 D0 L0 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~1 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Feyenoord U21 win

Published at 52%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Feyenoord U21 win	54%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
De Graafschap U21 win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Feyenoord U21 or draw	73%	–	–
Feyenoord U21 clean sheet	25%	–	–
De Graafschap U21 clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 2.7 5.2 3.1 1 7.3 8.4 6.2 2.9 2 6.7 9.2 6.3 3.0 3 4.6 6.3 4.3 2.0 4 2.4 3.3 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Feyenoord U21 down, De Graafschap U21 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 560 U21 Divisie 1 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: U21 Divisie 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 68.8% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Feyenoord U21 at home: 3.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). De Graafschap U21 away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Feyenoord U21, 1.39 for De Graafschap U21. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEG 3–1 FEY · FEY 1–2 DEG · FEY 4–1 DEG · DEG 0–2 FEY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · U21 Divisie 1 this season · since 29 Aug

FEYENOORD U21

WWWWW3–0 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 4–0 · 4–1

DE GRAAFSCHAP U21

LWWWLL1–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord U21	5	+14	15
2	Cambuur U21	5	+8	10
3	De Graafschap U21	6	+1	9
4	PEC Zwolle U21	6	−1	9
5	Groningen U21	6	−1	8
6	Twente / Heracles U21	6	−6	7
7	Go Ahead Eagles U21	6	−9	5
8	Willem II U21	6	−6	2