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Sparta Rotterdam II v Almere City II

Sparta Rotterdam II

1–4Full time

Almere City II

Tweede Divisie · SAT 10 OCT · Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Sparta Rotterdam II 1–4 Almere City II SPARTA ROTTERDAM II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Rotterdam II win~~44%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.622

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.823

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sparta Rotterdam II win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sparta Rotterdam II was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–19–37
1′KICK-OFF Sparta Rotterdam II v Almere City II
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sparta Rotterdam II 0–1 Almere City II
23′13′ and it is 0–1: B. Huisman on the scoresheet for Almere City II. 0–1 · 23–19–58
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Sparta Rotterdam II win: 44% at kick-off, 23% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Almere City II win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Sparta Rotterdam II win 23%)
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Almere City II
41′⚽ GOAL · 13' Sparta Rotterdam II 0–1 Almere City II · B. Huisman (assist I. Ghogli)
41′🟨 YELLOW · 30' S. Teunissen · Almere City II
44′We said Sparta Rotterdam II at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–22–61
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Sparta Rotterdam II 0–2 Almere City II
45′HALF-TIME Sparta Rotterdam II 0–2 Almere City II
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Almere City II · On: J. de Ruijter · Off: T. Vianello
47′SECOND HALF Sparta Rotterdam II 0–2 Almere City II
50′Almere City II ahead on 45′ through B. Huisman. 0–2. 0–2 · 5–11–85
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Sparta Rotterdam II win: 44% at kick-off, 5% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 50' M. Silva Neves · Sparta Rotterdam II
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Sparta Rotterdam II 0–3 Almere City II
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: L. Nieuwenhuijs · Off: M. Silva Neves
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: J. Inocencio · Off: N. Sandvliet
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: L. Oetoehganal · Off: K. Sallent
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Sparta Rotterdam II 0–4 Almere City II
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Sparta Rotterdam II
77′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Sparta Rotterdam II
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Almere City II · On: A. Bais · Off: O. de Nijs
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' R. Suur · Sparta Rotterdam II
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: E. Esievo · Off: V. Guit
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Almere City II · On: Y. Boerhout · Off: B. Huisman
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Almere City II · On: Q. van Beekveld · Off: I. Ghogli
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: J. Bogerd · Off: L. Nieuwenhuijs Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Sparta Rotterdam II 1–4 Almere City II · M. Oukhattou
FTFULL TIME Sparta Rotterdam II 1–4 Almere City II
FTSparta Rotterdam II 1–4 Almere City II · Sparta Rotterdam II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sparta Rotterdam II win44%

Draw18%

Almere City II win37%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Sportpark Nieuw Terbregge

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam II

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Suur

2 J. Esser

4 T. Borrie

3 D. Giersthove

5 M. Gompel

10 M. Oukhattou

6 N. Sandvliet

8 V. Guit

7 M. Silva Neves

9 S. Ebite

11 K. Sallent

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · T. Hitipeuw

13 · B. Leerdam

12 · E. Esievo

16 · J. Inocencio

15 · L. Oetoehganal

14 · J. Bogerd

17 · L. Nieuwenhuijs

Almere City II

Formation not confirmed

30 J. van der Wilt

32 D. Apinsa

42 C. Bos

36 M. Smit

34 S. Teunissen

33 T. Vianello

38 L. Lenssen

54 O. de Nijs

43 J. Kalisvaart

39 B. Huisman

47 I. Ghogli

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · J. van der Mark

56 · M. Haven

55 · J. de Ruijter

45 · L. Opdam

37 · Q. van Beekveld

40 · A. Bais

49 · Y. Boerhout

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam II

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Suur

2 J. Esser

4 T. Borrie

3 D. Giersthove

5 M. Gompel

10 M. Oukhattou

6 N. Sandvliet

8 V. Guit

7 M. Silva Neves

9 S. Ebite

11 K. Sallent

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · T. Hitipeuw

13 · B. Leerdam

12 · E. Esievo

16 · J. Inocencio

15 · L. Oetoehganal

14 · J. Bogerd

17 · L. Nieuwenhuijs

Almere City II

Formation not confirmed

30 J. van der Wilt

32 D. Apinsa

42 C. Bos

36 M. Smit

34 S. Teunissen

33 T. Vianello

38 L. Lenssen

54 O. de Nijs

43 J. Kalisvaart

39 B. Huisman

47 I. Ghogli

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · J. van der Mark

56 · M. Haven

55 · J. de Ruijter

45 · L. Opdam

37 · Q. van Beekveld

40 · A. Bais

49 · Y. Boerhout

Our number · sparta rotterdam ii winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

44% The market51%

Us44%

~~Market~~51%

We make Sparta Rotterdam II a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–2.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sparta rotterdam ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sparta Rotterdam II win	44%	51%	−7
Draw	18%	21%	−3
Almere City II win	37%	28%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	85%	75%	+11
Both teams to score	82%	73%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	95%	89%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	70%	57%	+13
Sparta Rotterdam II or draw	63%	72%	−9
Sparta Rotterdam II clean sheet	10%	–	–
Almere City II clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.6%

0123450 2.0 2.2 1 2.2 4.7 5.4 4.1 2.4 2 2.6 5.8 6.6 5.0 2.9 3 2.1 4.8 5.4 4.2 2.4 4 3.0 3.4 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Rotterdam II down, Almere City II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,685 Tweede Divisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sparta Rotterdam II at home: 2.67 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Almere City II away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.51 goals for Sparta Rotterdam II, 2.31 for Almere City II. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALM 3–0 SPA · SPA 2–2 ALM · SPA 3–3 ALM · ALM 3–4 SPA

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie

SPARTA ROTTERDAM II

LDDDWL1–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–3

ALMERE CITY II

LLLDLW1–2 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	8	+16	21
2	Kozakken Boys	8	+11	17
3	De Treffers	8	+11	15
4	Barendrecht	8	+3	14
5	HHC	8	+3	14
6	Ijsselmeervogels	7	+5	13
7	Spakenburg	8	−1	13
8	Sparta Rotterdam II	8	+8	12
9	Katwijk	8	−2	11
10	AFC Amsterdam	8	−2	10
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	8	−7	10
12	Hoek	8	−2	9
13	GVVV Veenendaal	7	−3	9
14	RKAV Volendam	8	−7	9
15	Almere City II	8	−2	7
16	Koninklijke HFC	8	−5	6
17	Kloetinge	8	−10	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	8	−16	1