Spakenburg v Quick Boys prediction · Tweede Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 17:28

Spakenburg 1–1 Quick Boys QUICK BOYS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Quick Boys win~~49%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.934

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.864

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quick Boys win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Quick Boys 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 29–22–49
1′KICK-OFF Spakenburg v Quick Boys
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Spakenburg
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Quick Boys
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Spakenburg
13′Spakenburg find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 53–23–25
13′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 53–23–25
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Spakenburg 1–0 Quick Boys
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Quick Boys win: 49% at kick-off, 25% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Spakenburg win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Quick Boys win 25%)
15′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 53–23–24
24′A goal for Quick Boys on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 28–27–45
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Spakenburg 1–1 Quick Boys
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Quick Boys win: 49% at kick-off, 45% now
24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Quick Boys win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Spakenburg win 28%)
44′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 26–34–40
45′T. Drexhage scores for Quick Boys on 24′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 26–34–40
45′Little has changed for our model: Quick Boys 49% before kick-off, 40% now. 1–1 · 26–34–40
45′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 26–34–40
45′HALF-TIME Spakenburg 1–1 Quick Boys
46′SECOND HALF Spakenburg 1–1 Quick Boys
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Quick Boys win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
52′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 1–1 · 25–38–37
56′Quick Boys are down to ten from 56′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 24–41–36
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Quick Boys win 36%)
56′🟥 RED CARD · 56' Quick Boys
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Quick Boys
59′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 23–43–34
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Spakenburg · On: G. da Fonseca · Off: H. van Lopik
67′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 20–51–29
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Quick Boys win: 49% at kick-off, 29% now
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Spakenburg
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Spakenburg · On: M. Afaker · Off: A. el Azzouti
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Spakenburg · On: F. Quaedvlieg · Off: S. Hage
73′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 17–59–24
78′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 13–68–19
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Quick Boys win: 49% at kick-off, 19% now
82′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 10–76–14
86′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Quick Boys win: 49% at kick-off, 9% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Quick Boys · On: R. Boakye · Off: L. Hamann
87′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Quick Boys · On: N. Broekhuizen · Off: K. van Mil
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Quick Boys · On: L. van Duijn · Off: T. Drexhage
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Quick Boys · On: G. Kuisch · Off: K. Slor
92′We said Quick Boys at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–93–4
FTFULL TIME Spakenburg 1–1 Quick Boys
FTSpakenburg 1–1 Quick Boys · Quick Boys win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Quick Boys are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Spakenburg 29%, draw 22%, Quick Boys 49%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Spakenburg v Quick BoysBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Spakenburg win29%

Draw22%

Quick Boys win49%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSportpark De Westmaat

Line-ups

Spakenburg

Quick Boys

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Spakenburg

Quick Boys

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Spakenburg

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Damkalis

16 O. Kok

15 H. van Lopik

18 T. Linthorst

5 D. Green

14 S. Hage

34 S. Lever

26 M. Veenhoven

8 S. van Huffel

9 M. van der Weijden

7 A. el Azzouti

Coach · Chris de Graaf

Substitutes

77 · J. Houweling

44 · J. Guiting

2 · N. Verhagen

10 · D. Kunst

20 · F. Quaedvlieg

6 · G. da Fonseca

27 · M. Afaker

Quick Boys

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Jansen

2 J. van Kaam

3 S. Kroon

14 R. Burger

5 T. Bouwman

6 L. de Beste

30 T. Noordhoff

11 L. Hamann

17 K. van Mil

9 T. Drexhage

21 K. Slor

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · Q. van der Helm

25 · R. Boakye

15 · G. Kuisch

7 · N. Broekhuizen

8 · J. Reinders

10 · L. van Duijn

22 · R. Doesburg

Our number · quick boys winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

49% The market47%

Us49%

~~Market~~47%

We make Quick Boys a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Spakenburg v Quick Boys~~1.39 – 1.90

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 13 v 24~~9 v 1

~~The market · Quick Boys win~~47% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Quick Boys win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Spakenburg win	29%	28%	+1
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Quick Boys win	49%	47%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	64%	60%	+4
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	80%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	42%	40%	+2
Spakenburg or draw	51%	53%	−2
Spakenburg clean sheet	15%	–	–
Quick Boys clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.8 7.2 6.7 4.2 2.1 1 5.4 9.7 9.1 5.8 2.8 2 3.7 6.8 6.3 4.0 3 3.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Spakenburg down, Quick Boys across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,695 Tweede Divisie matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Spakenburg at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Quick Boys away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.39 goals for Spakenburg, 1.90 for Quick Boys. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPA 3–1 QUI · QUI 5–2 SPA · QUI 1–0 SPA · SPA 2–2 QUI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

SPAKENBURG

LWDLWL1–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 0–2

QUICK BOYS

WWLWWW3–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	9	+22	24
2	Kozakken Boys	9	+13	20
3	De Treffers	9	+15	18
4	Ijsselmeervogels	9	+4	16
5	GVVV Veenendaal	9	+3	15
6	HHC	9	+3	15
7	Barendrecht	9	−1	14
8	AFC Amsterdam	9	0	13
9	Spakenburg	9	−3	13
10	Sparta Rotterdam II	9	+5	12
11	RKAV Volendam	9	−1	12
12	Katwijk	9	−8	11
13	Almere City II	9	+1	10
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	9	−10	10
15	Hoek	9	−4	9
16	Kloetinge	9	−10	7
17	Koninklijke HFC	9	−7	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	9	−22	1