RKAV Volendam v Sparta Rotterdam II prediction · Tweede Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

RKAV Volendam 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam II RKAV VOLENDAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said RKAV Volendam win~~41%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.538

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.522

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said RKAV Volendam win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: RKAV Volendam was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–19–39
1′KICK-OFF RKAV Volendam v Sparta Rotterdam II
11′RKAV Volendam score on 10′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 61–18–21
11′We published RKAV Volendam at 41%. Our model now makes it 61%. 1–0 · 61–18–21
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' RKAV Volendam 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam II
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' RKAV Volendam win: 41% at kick-off, 61% now
37′Sparta Rotterdam II find the net on 36′. 1–1. 1–1 · 38–26–36
37′Goals are coming at about the 4.5 we expected. 1–1 · 38–26–36
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' RKAV Volendam 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam II
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' RKAV Volendam win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
45′HALF-TIME RKAV Volendam 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam II
46′SECOND HALF RKAV Volendam 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam II
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: L. Nieuwenhuijs · Off: J. Inocencio
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was RKAV Volendam win 32%)
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' RKAV Volendam
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' RKAV Volendam win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
66′We said RKAV Volendam at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–42–29
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: D. Jermoumi · Off: M. Gompel
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Sparta Rotterdam II
74′We said RKAV Volendam at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' RKAV Volendam win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
78′A goal for RKAV Volendam on 77′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 80–17–3
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' RKAV Volendam 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam II
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' RKAV Volendam win: 41% at kick-off, 80% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' RKAV Volendam win is now our likeliest result at 80% (was Draw 17%)
79′We published RKAV Volendam at 41%. Our model now makes it 81%. 2–1 · 81–16–2
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' RKAV Volendam win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Sparta Rotterdam II
81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' RKAV Volendam · On: D. Sier · Off: G. Vlak
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: J. Polonius · Off: V. Guit
81′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: S. Ebite · Off: D. Hanzen
82′We published RKAV Volendam at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–1
86′We published RKAV Volendam at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Sparta Rotterdam II
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' RKAV Volendam win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' RKAV Volendam · On: D. van Baarsen · Off: A. Sout
87′SUBSTITUTION · 82' RKAV Volendam · On: D. Zwarthoed · Off: P. Plugboer
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: B. Leerdam · Off: K. Sallent
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' RKAV Volendam · On: T. Smit · Off: R. Tol
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Sparta Rotterdam II
FTFULL TIME RKAV Volendam 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam II
FTRKAV Volendam 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam II · RKAV Volendam win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with RKAV Volendam just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: RKAV Volendam 41%, draw 19%, Sparta Rotterdam II 40%. Over 2.5 goals 82%, both teams to score 79%.

The AI’s read on RKAV Volendam v Sparta Rotterdam IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

RKAV Volendam win41%

Draw19%

Sparta Rotterdam II win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueHein Koning Stadion

Line-ups

RKAV Volendam

Sparta Rotterdam II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RKAV Volendam

Sparta Rotterdam II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Sparta Rotterdam II	9	+5	12
11	RKAV Volendam	9	−1	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

RKAV Volendam

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Witte

4 L. Veerman

13 P. Karregat

14 D. Steur

3 S. Schokker

10 N. Runderkamp

6 P. Kroon

5 G. Vlak

7 R. Tol

26 P. Plugboer

9 A. Sout

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · D. van Baarsen

20 · D. Zwarthoed

2 · R. Tol

21 · T. Smit

25 · D. Sier

22 · J. Kluessien

30 · W. Ait Abdellah

Sparta Rotterdam II

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Suur

2 J. Esser

3 D. Giersthove

4 T. Borrie

5 M. Gompel

10 M. Oukhattou

6 N. Sandvliet

8 V. Guit

7 J. Inocencio

9 D. Hanzen

11 K. Sallent

Coach · –

Substitutes

19 · S. Ebite

14 · L. Oetoehganal

12 · D. Jermoumi

13 · B. Leerdam

20 · D. Lindhout

16 · L. Nieuwenhuijs

15 · J. Polonius

Our number · rkav volendam winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market41%

Us41%

~~Market~~41%

We make RKAV Volendam a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.3–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · RKAV Volendam v Sparta Rotterdam II~~2.26 – 2.21

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 12 v 12~~11 v 10

~~The market · RKAV Volendam win~~41% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · RKAV Volendam win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RKAV Volendam win	41%	41%	0
Draw	19%	23%	−4
Sparta Rotterdam II win	40%	35%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	82%	72%	+10
Both teams to score	79%	72%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	93%	86%	+7
Over 3.5 goals	65%	53%	+12
RKAV Volendam or draw	60%	65%	−5
RKAV Volendam clean sheet	11%	–	–
Sparta Rotterdam II clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–2 at 6.9%

0123450 2.7 2.9 2.1 1 2.8 5.7 6.3 4.6 2.6 2 3.0 6.4 6.9 5.1 2.8 3 2.2 4.8 5.2 3.8 2.1 4 2.7 2.9 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RKAV Volendam down, Sparta Rotterdam II across0–5 goals a side shown (94.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,695 Tweede Divisie matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RKAV Volendam at home: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Sparta Rotterdam II away: 2.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.26 goals for RKAV Volendam, 2.21 for Sparta Rotterdam II. Most likely score 2–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RKA 1–1 SPA · SPA 1–5 RKA · SPA 1–3 RKA · RKA 1–3 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

RKAV VOLENDAM

WDDLLW2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 8–2

SPARTA ROTTERDAM II

DDDWLL2–2 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	9	+22	24
2	Kozakken Boys	9	+13	20
3	De Treffers	9	+15	18
4	Ijsselmeervogels	9	+4	16
5	GVVV Veenendaal	9	+3	15
6	HHC	9	+3	15
7	Barendrecht	9	−1	14
8	AFC Amsterdam	9	0	13
9	Spakenburg	9	−3	13
10	Sparta Rotterdam II	9	+5	12
11	RKAV Volendam	9	−1	12
12	Katwijk	9	−8	11
13	Almere City II	9	+1	10
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	9	−10	10
15	Hoek	9	−4	9
16	Kloetinge	9	−10	7
17	Koninklijke HFC	9	−7	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	9	−22	1