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Rijnsburgse Boys v RKAV Volendam

Rijnsburgse Boys

0–1Full time

RKAV Volendam

Tweede Divisie · SAT 24 OCT · Sportpark Middelmors

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Rijnsburgse Boys 0–1 RKAV Volendam RIJNSBURGSE BOYS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rijnsburgse Boys win~~57%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.941

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.906

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rijnsburgse Boys win at 57%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rijnsburgse Boys was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–19–24
1′KICK-OFF Rijnsburgse Boys v RKAV Volendam
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Rijnsburgse Boys
37′RKAV Volendam find the net on 37′. 0–1. 0–1 · 25–25–50
37′We said Rijnsburgse Boys at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–1 · 25–25–50
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Rijnsburgse Boys 0–1 RKAV Volendam
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Rijnsburgse Boys win: 57% at kick-off, 25% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' RKAV Volendam win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Rijnsburgse Boys win 50%)
40′We said Rijnsburgse Boys at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–25–51
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' RKAV Volendam
45′HALF-TIME Rijnsburgse Boys 0–1 RKAV Volendam
46′SECOND HALF Rijnsburgse Boys 0–1 RKAV Volendam
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rijnsburgse Boys · On: J. Simoes · Off: N. Klaver
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' RKAV Volendam · On: T. Smit · Off: S. Schokker
49′We said Rijnsburgse Boys at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Rijnsburgse Boys win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
57′A goal for Rijnsburgse Boys on 57′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 42–36–22
57′We said Rijnsburgse Boys at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–36–22
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Rijnsburgse Boys 1–1 RKAV Volendam
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Rijnsburgse Boys win: 57% at kick-off, 42% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Rijnsburgse Boys win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was RKAV Volendam win 58%)
59′GOAL DISALLOWED · 59' Rijnsburgse Boys
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Rijnsburgse Boys win: 57% at kick-off, 14% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' RKAV Volendam win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Rijnsburgse Boys win 41%)
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rijnsburgse Boys · On: S. Bastmeijer · Off: K. Lever
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Rijnsburgse Boys · On: B. de Bruin · Off: C. Tureaij
68′We said Rijnsburgse Boys at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Rijnsburgse Boys win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' RKAV Volendam · On: D. Zwarthoed · Off: A. Sout
77′We said Rijnsburgse Boys at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Rijnsburgse Boys · On: M. van Kempen · Off: C. Van Bohemen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 83' RKAV Volendam · On: W. Ait Abdellah · Off: N. Runderkamp
91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Rijnsburgse Boys · On: E. Broug · Off: Y. Tufi
FTFULL TIME Rijnsburgse Boys 0–1 RKAV Volendam
FTRijnsburgse Boys 0–1 RKAV Volendam · Rijnsburgse Boys win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rijnsburgse Boys are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rijnsburgse Boys 57%, draw 19%, RKAV Volendam 24%. Over 2.5 goals 77%, both teams to score 72%.

The AI’s read on Rijnsburgse Boys v RKAV VolendamBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Rijnsburgse Boys win57%

Draw19%

RKAV Volendam win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportpark Middelmors

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rijnsburgse Boys

RKAV Volendam

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	RKAV Volendam	10	0	15
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	−9	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rijnsburgse boys winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

57% The market54%

Us57%

~~Market~~54%

We make Rijnsburgse Boys a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Rijnsburgse Boys v RKAV Volendam~~2.50 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 13 v 15~~11 v 8

~~The market · Rijnsburgse Boys win~~54% · ours 57%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Rijnsburgse Boys win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Rijnsburgse Boys win	57%	54%	+3
Draw	19%	21%	−2
RKAV Volendam win	24%	25%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Both teams to score	72%	70%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	91%	88%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	58%	54%	+4
Rijnsburgse Boys or draw	76%	75%	+1
Rijnsburgse Boys clean sheet	21%	–	–
RKAV Volendam clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.2%

0123450 2.8 2.2 1 4.4 6.7 5.3 2.8 2 5.3 8.2 6.4 3.4 3 4.4 6.8 5.3 2.8 4 2.7 4.2 3.3 5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Rijnsburgse Boys down, RKAV Volendam across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,704 Tweede Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Rijnsburgse Boys at home: 3.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). RKAV Volendam away: 2.00 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.50 goals for Rijnsburgse Boys, 1.59 for RKAV Volendam. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RIJ 7–0 RKA · RKA 3–4 RIJ · RKA 2–2 RIJ · RIJ 5–1 RKA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

RIJNSBURGSE BOYS

LWLWLW1–6 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 1–4 · 1–0

RKAV VOLENDAM

DDLLWW1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 8–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	10	+22	25
2	De Treffers	10	+16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	+13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	+5	19
5	HHC	10	+4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	+2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	+2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	−3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	−3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	−9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	+4	12
13	Katwijk	10	−9	11
14	Almere City II	10	0	10
15	Hoek	10	−4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	−6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	−11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	−23	1