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Quick Boys v Katwijk

Quick Boys

6–0Full time

Katwijk

Tweede Divisie · SAT 10 OCT · Sportpark Nieuw Zuid

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:10

Quick Boys 6–0 Katwijk QUICK BOYS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quick Boys win~~60%

~~The market said~~58%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.236

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.270

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quick Boys win at 60%.
1′KICK-OFF Quick Boys v Katwijk
2′Little has changed for our model: Quick Boys 60% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Quick Boys
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Quick Boys 1–0 Katwijk
23′20′ and it is 1–0: T. Drexhage on the scoresheet for Quick Boys. 1–0 · 80–14–6
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Katwijk
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Quick Boys 2–0 Katwijk · L. de Beste
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Quick Boys 3–0 Katwijk
43′L. Hamann scores for Quick Boys on 32′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, 99% now
45′HALF-TIME Quick Boys 3–0 Katwijk
46′We said Quick Boys at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
46′SECOND HALF Quick Boys 3–0 Katwijk
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Katwijk · On: G. Tiebosch · Off: O. van der Meer
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Katwijk · On: B. Sinteur · Off: K. van der Veldt
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Katwijk · On: G. Tiebosch · Off: O. van der Meer
52′⚽ GOAL · 51' Quick Boys 4–0 Katwijk
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Katwijk
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Quick Boys 5–0 Katwijk
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Quick Boys · On: J. Reinders · Off: T. Noordhoff
64′Quick Boys ahead on 58′ through L. Hamann. 5–0. 5–0 · 100–0–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Katwijk · On: F. Janmaat · Off: D. van Wageningen
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, 100% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Quick Boys · On: N. Broekhuizen · Off: L. Hamann
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Quick Boys · On: R. Doesburg · Off: K. van Mil
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Quick Boys · On: L. van Duijn · Off: T. Drexhage
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Quick Boys · On: G. Kuisch · Off: J. van Kaam
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Katwijk
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Katwijk
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Quick Boys
83′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Katwijk
83′🟥 RED CARD · 82' F. Janmaat · Katwijk
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Katwijk · On: M. Jesse · Off: G. Korte
84′Katwijk are down to ten from 82′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 5–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Quick Boys 6–0 Katwijk
FTFULL TIME Quick Boys 6–0 Katwijk
FTQuick Boys 6–0 Katwijk · Quick Boys win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Quick Boys win60%

Draw20%

Katwijk win20%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 12:30

Venue · Sportpark Nieuw Zuid

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Quick Boys

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Jansen

2 J. van Kaam

3 S. Kroon

14 R. Burger

5 T. Bouwman

6 L. de Beste

30 T. Noordhoff

11 L. Hamann

17 K. van Mil

9 T. Drexhage

21 K. Slor

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · Q. van der Helm

25 · R. Boakye

15 · G. Kuisch

7 · N. Broekhuizen

8 · J. Reinders

10 · L. van Duijn

22 · R. Doesburg

Katwijk

Formation not confirmed

41 S. van Bladeren

25 C. Toure

4 D. Maatsen

5 D. Warmerdam

14 K. van der Veldt

22 M. Brenna

20 O. van der Meer

16 D. van Wageningen

7 G. Korte

24 I. el Moussaoui

10 M. Suleiman

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · J. Van der Zon

26 · J. Bakker

15 · B. Sinteur

8 · F. Janmaat

17 · G. Tiebosch

11 · M. Jesse

40 · A. Moes

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Quick Boys

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Jansen

2 J. van Kaam

3 S. Kroon

14 R. Burger

5 T. Bouwman

6 L. de Beste

30 T. Noordhoff

11 L. Hamann

17 K. van Mil

9 T. Drexhage

21 K. Slor

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · Q. van der Helm

25 · R. Boakye

15 · G. Kuisch

7 · N. Broekhuizen

8 · J. Reinders

10 · L. van Duijn

22 · R. Doesburg

Katwijk

Formation not confirmed

41 S. van Bladeren

25 C. Toure

4 D. Maatsen

5 D. Warmerdam

14 K. van der Veldt

22 M. Brenna

20 O. van der Meer

16 D. van Wageningen

7 G. Korte

24 I. el Moussaoui

10 M. Suleiman

Coach · –

Substitutes

27 · J. Van der Zon

26 · J. Bakker

15 · B. Sinteur

8 · F. Janmaat

17 · G. Tiebosch

11 · M. Jesse

40 · A. Moes

Our number · quick boys winPublished 10 Oct 12:19

60% The market58%

Us60%

~~Market~~58%

We make Quick Boys a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · quick boys win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 58% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quick Boys win	60%	58%	+3
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Katwijk win	20%	20%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	44%	−2
Quick Boys or draw	80%	80%	+1
Quick Boys clean sheet	33%	–	–
Katwijk clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.9 4.5 2.5 1 8.3 9.1 5.2 2 8.7 9.6 5.4 2.1 3 6.2 6.8 3.8 4 3.4 3.7 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quick Boys down, Katwijk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,685 Tweede Divisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Quick Boys at home: 3.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Katwijk away: 1.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Quick Boys, 1.13 for Katwijk. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~KAT 1–2 QUI · QUI 3–0 KAT · KAT 1–4 QUI · QUI 1–1 KAT

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie

QUICK BOYS

WWWLWW4–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–2

KATWIJK

WWDLWL2–0 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	8	+16	21
2	Kozakken Boys	8	+11	17
3	De Treffers	8	+11	15
4	Barendrecht	8	+3	14
5	HHC	8	+3	14
6	Ijsselmeervogels	7	+5	13
7	Spakenburg	8	−1	13
8	Sparta Rotterdam II	8	+8	12
9	Katwijk	8	−2	11
10	AFC Amsterdam	8	−2	10
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	8	−7	10
12	Hoek	8	−2	9
13	GVVV Veenendaal	7	−3	9
14	RKAV Volendam	8	−7	9
15	Almere City II	8	−2	7
16	Koninklijke HFC	8	−5	6
17	Kloetinge	8	−10	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	8	−16	1