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Quick Boys v Hoek

Quick Boys

3–1Full time

Hoek

Tweede Divisie · SAT 24 OCT · Sportpark Nieuw Zuid

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Quick Boys 3–1 Hoek QUICK BOYS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Quick Boys win~~60%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.237

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.272

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Quick Boys win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: Quick Boys was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 60–21–19
1′KICK-OFF Quick Boys v Hoek
11′A goal for Hoek on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 33–25–42
11′We said Quick Boys at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–1 · 33–25–42
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Quick Boys 0–1 Hoek
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 11' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, 33% now
11′THE CALL SWINGS · 11' Hoek win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Quick Boys win 58%)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, 30% now
20′We said Quick Boys at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–26–44
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 25–27–47
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Quick Boys
33′We said Quick Boys at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–27–48
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, 20% now
43′We said Quick Boys at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–28–52
45′HALF-TIME Quick Boys 0–1 Hoek
46′SECOND HALF Quick Boys 0–1 Hoek
50′Quick Boys score on 49′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 44–38–18
50′We said Quick Boys at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–38–18
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Quick Boys 1–1 Hoek
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, 44% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Quick Boys win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Hoek win 55%)
53′50′: K. van Mil on the scoresheet for Quick Boys, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 43–40–17
54′Quick Boys find the net on 54′. 2–1. 2–1 · 83–14–3
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Quick Boys 2–1 Hoek
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
55′We published Quick Boys at 60%. Our model now makes it 83%. 2–1 · 83–14–3
55′That is 3, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–14–3
57′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Quick Boys
63′We published Quick Boys at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Hoek · On: A. Jalloh · Off: J. Pengel
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Hoek · On: M. Bostdorp · Off: K. Hebbelinck
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Hoek · On: T. Boere · Off: C. Van Daele
77′We published Quick Boys at 60%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–1 · 90–9–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
78′A goal for Quick Boys on 77′ — 3–1. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′We published Quick Boys at 60%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 99–1–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Quick Boys · On: N. Broekhuizen · Off: L. Hamann
78′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Quick Boys · On: R. Doesburg · Off: K. van Mil
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Quick Boys 3–1 Hoek
80′We published Quick Boys at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Quick Boys win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hoek · On: M. Steenpoorte · Off: H. Bouihrouchane
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Hoek · On: D. Demuynck · Off: R. Van Hauter
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Quick Boys · On: L. van Duijn · Off: T. Drexhage
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Quick Boys · On: F. van den Bosch · Off: L. de Beste
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Quick Boys · On: J. Reinders · Off: R. Boakye
FTFULL TIME Quick Boys 3–1 Hoek
FTQuick Boys 3–1 Hoek · Quick Boys win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Quick Boys are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Quick Boys 60%, draw 21%, Hoek 19%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Quick Boys v HoekBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Quick Boys win60%

Draw21%

Hoek win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportpark Nieuw Zuid

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Quick Boys

Hoek

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · quick boys winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

60% The market57%

Us60%

~~Market~~57%

We make Quick Boys a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Quick Boys v Hoek~~1.98 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 25 v 10~~1 v 15

~~The market · Quick Boys win~~57% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Quick Boys win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Quick Boys win	60%	57%	+3
Draw	21%	22%	−1
Hoek win	19%	20%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	56%	60%	−4
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	79%	80%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	34%	41%	−7
Quick Boys or draw	81%	80%	+1
Quick Boys clean sheet	38%	–	–
Hoek clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 10.4%

0123450 5.4 5.3 2.6 1 10.4 9.9 4.9 2 10.1 9.7 4.7 3 6.6 6.3 3.1 4 3.4 3.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Quick Boys down, Hoek across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,704 Tweede Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Quick Boys at home: 3.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Hoek away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.98 goals for Quick Boys, 0.98 for Hoek. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HOE 1–1 QUI · QUI 2–0 HOE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

QUICK BOYS

WLWWWD3–1 · 1–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 6–0 · 1–1

HOEK

DDLWLD1–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	10	+22	25
2	De Treffers	10	+16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	+13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	+5	19
5	HHC	10	+4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	+2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	+2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	−3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	−3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	−9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	+4	12
13	Katwijk	10	−9	11
14	Almere City II	10	0	10
15	Hoek	10	−4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	−6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	−11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	−23	1