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Kozakken Boys v Spakenburg

Kozakken Boys

2–0Full time

Spakenburg

Tweede Divisie · SAT 10 OCT · De Zwaaier

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Kozakken Boys 2–0 Spakenburg SPAKENBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spakenburg win~~40%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.593

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.466

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spakenburg win at 40%.
4′KICK-OFF Kozakken Boys v Spakenburg
5′A goal for Kozakken Boys on 5′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 37–23–39
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Kozakken Boys 1–0 Spakenburg · Z. Deurloo
22′We said Spakenburg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 63–21–17
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Spakenburg win: 40% at kick-off, 17% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Kozakken Boys win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Spakenburg win 17%)
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Spakenburg
38′⚽ GOAL · 5' Kozakken Boys 1–0 Spakenburg · Z. Deurloo
38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Spakenburg
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Kozakken Boys
44′We said Spakenburg at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 1–0 · 66–22–12
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Spakenburg
45′HALF-TIME Kozakken Boys 1–0 Spakenburg
48′46′ and it is 2–0: M. van den Berg on the scoresheet for Kozakken Boys. 2–0 · 89–8–3
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spakenburg · On: D. Kunst · Off: O. Kok
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Spakenburg · On: M. Afaker · Off: A. el Azzouti
48′⚽ GOAL · 46' Kozakken Boys 2–0 Spakenburg · M. van den Berg (assist D. Versluis)
48′SECOND HALF Kozakken Boys 2–0 Spakenburg
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Spakenburg win: 40% at kick-off, 3% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kozakken Boys · On: S. Jalloh · Off: M. van den Berg
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Kozakken Boys · On: S. Martina · Off: J. Giebels
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Spakenburg · On: N. Verhagen · Off: S. Lever
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Spakenburg · On: J. Guiting · Off: M. Veenhoven
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Spakenburg · On: F. Quaedvlieg · Off: S. Hage
84′🟥 RED CARD · 83' Kozakken Boys
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kozakken Boys · On: M. Maletic · Off: D. Versluis
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Kozakken Boys · On: M. Hassan · Off: Z. Deurloo
FTFULL TIME Kozakken Boys 2–0 Spakenburg
FTKozakken Boys 2–0 Spakenburg · Spakenburg win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Kozakken Boys win38%

Draw22%

Spakenburg win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · De Zwaaier

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Kozakken Boys

Formation not confirmed

1 R. ten Hove

20 D. den Besten

6 T. Sas

23 J. Giebels

17 D. Pedro

12 G. Stout

3 S. Hop

24 G. Damen

21 Z. Deurloo

9 D. Versluis

15 M. van den Berg

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · J. Koorevaar

4 · S. Martina

18 · Y. Taytay

11 · S. Jalloh

14 · M. Maletic

7 · M. Hassan

Spakenburg

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Damkalis

16 O. Kok

15 H. van Lopik

18 T. Linthorst

5 D. Green

8 S. van Huffel

34 S. Lever

26 M. Veenhoven

14 S. Hage

9 M. van der Weijden

7 A. el Azzouti

Coach · Chris de Graaf

Substitutes

77 · J. Houweling

44 · J. Guiting

17 · R. Kroeze

2 · N. Verhagen

10 · D. Kunst

20 · F. Quaedvlieg

27 · M. Afaker

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Kozakken Boys

Formation not confirmed

1 R. ten Hove

20 D. den Besten

6 T. Sas

23 J. Giebels

17 D. Pedro

12 G. Stout

3 S. Hop

24 G. Damen

21 Z. Deurloo

9 D. Versluis

15 M. van den Berg

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · J. Koorevaar

4 · S. Martina

18 · Y. Taytay

11 · S. Jalloh

14 · M. Maletic

7 · M. Hassan

Spakenburg

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Damkalis

16 O. Kok

15 H. van Lopik

18 T. Linthorst

5 D. Green

8 S. van Huffel

34 S. Lever

26 M. Veenhoven

14 S. Hage

9 M. van der Weijden

7 A. el Azzouti

Coach · Chris de Graaf

Substitutes

77 · J. Houweling

44 · J. Guiting

17 · R. Kroeze

2 · N. Verhagen

10 · D. Kunst

20 · F. Quaedvlieg

27 · M. Afaker

Our number · spakenburg winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

40% The market33%

Us40%

~~Market~~33%

We make Spakenburg a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · spakenburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kozakken Boys win	38%	45%	−7
Draw	22%	23%	0
Spakenburg win	40%	33%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	65%	66%	−1
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	48%	−4
Kozakken Boys or draw	60%	67%	−7
Kozakken Boys clean sheet	18%	–	–
Spakenburg clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.5 6.0 5.0 2.9 1 5.9 9.6 8.2 4.7 2.0 2 4.8 8.0 6.7 3.9 3 2.7 4.4 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kozakken Boys down, Spakenburg across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,685 Tweede Divisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 4.88 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kozakken Boys at home: 2.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Spakenburg away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Kozakken Boys, 1.71 for Spakenburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.88

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~7 of 8

~~Last meetings~~SPA 3–4 KOZ · KOZ 1–2 SPA · KOZ 0–3 SPA · SPA 3–1 KOZ

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie

KOZAKKEN BOYS

WWWWDW3–2 · 2–1 · 6–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 5–1

SPAKENBURG

WLWDLW2–0 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	8	+16	21
2	Kozakken Boys	8	+11	17
3	De Treffers	8	+11	15
4	Barendrecht	8	+3	14
5	HHC	8	+3	14
6	Ijsselmeervogels	7	+5	13
7	Spakenburg	8	−1	13
8	Sparta Rotterdam II	8	+8	12
9	Katwijk	8	−2	11
10	AFC Amsterdam	8	−2	10
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	8	−7	10
12	Hoek	8	−2	9
13	GVVV Veenendaal	7	−3	9
14	RKAV Volendam	8	−7	9
15	Almere City II	8	−2	7
16	Koninklijke HFC	8	−5	6
17	Kloetinge	8	−10	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	8	−16	1