Kozakken Boys v Barendrecht prediction · Tweede Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Kozakken Boys 0–1 Barendrecht KOZAKKEN BOYS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Kozakken Boys win~~51%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.824

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.982

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Kozakken Boys win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Kozakken Boys 51% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–21–28
1′KICK-OFF Kozakken Boys v Barendrecht
12′Barendrecht find the net on 11′. 0–1. 0–1 · 28–22–50
12′We said Kozakken Boys at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 0–1 · 28–22–50
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Kozakken Boys 0–1 Barendrecht
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Kozakken Boys win: 51% at kick-off, 28% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Barendrecht win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Kozakken Boys win 50%)
24′We said Kozakken Boys at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–23–53
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 23–24–54
30′SUBSTITUTION · 29' Barendrecht · On: M. Bakour · Off: F. Hooreman
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Kozakken Boys win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
39′We said Kozakken Boys at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
45′HALF-TIME Kozakken Boys 0–1 Barendrecht
46′SECOND HALF Kozakken Boys 0–1 Barendrecht
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kozakken Boys · On: S. Jalloh · Off: S. Martina
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kozakken Boys · On: M. Maletic · Off: M. van den Berg
52′We said Kozakken Boys at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Kozakken Boys win: 51% at kick-off, 11% now
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Kozakken Boys
63′We said Kozakken Boys at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
74′We said Kozakken Boys at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Barendrecht · On: N. Keehnen · Off: Meer Bradley
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Barendrecht · On: R. Ouali · Off: B. Vugts
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Kozakken Boys · On: F. Keukens · Off: D. Pedro
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Kozakken Boys win: 51% at kick-off, 1% now
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Barendrecht · On: O. Stewart · Off: J. Kieboom
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Barendrecht
FTFULL TIME Kozakken Boys 0–1 Barendrecht
FTKozakken Boys 0–1 Barendrecht · Kozakken Boys win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Kozakken Boys are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kozakken Boys 51%, draw 21%, Barendrecht 28%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Kozakken Boys v BarendrechtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kozakken Boys win51%

Draw21%

Barendrecht win28%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueDe Zwaaier

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kozakken Boys

Barendrecht

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Kozakken Boys	10	+13	21
6	Barendrecht	10	+2	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kozakken boys winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market57%

Us51%

~~Market~~57%

We make Kozakken Boys a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kozakken Boys v Barendrecht~~2.14 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 17~~3 v 6

~~The market · Kozakken Boys win~~57% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Kozakken Boys win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kozakken Boys win	51%	57%	−6
Draw	21%	21%	0
Barendrecht win	28%	22%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	71%	67%	+4
Both teams to score	69%	65%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	88%	84%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	50%	48%	+2
Kozakken Boys or draw	72%	78%	−6
Kozakken Boys clean sheet	22%	–	–
Barendrecht clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.7%

0123450 2.6 4.1 3.1 1 5.6 8.3 6.3 3.3 2 5.8 8.7 6.6 3.4 3 4.1 6.2 4.7 2.4 4 2.2 3.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kozakken Boys down, Barendrecht across0–5 goals a side shown (97.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,704 Tweede Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Kozakken Boys at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Barendrecht away: 2.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.14 goals for Kozakken Boys, 1.54 for Barendrecht. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~KOZ 1–0 BAR · KOZ 2–2 BAR · BAR 0–1 KOZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

KOZAKKEN BOYS

WWDWWD6–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 0–0

BARENDRECHT

DDWWLW1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	10	+22	25
2	De Treffers	10	+16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	+13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	+5	19
5	HHC	10	+4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	+2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	+2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	−3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	−3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	−9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	+4	12
13	Katwijk	10	−9	11
14	Almere City II	10	0	10
15	Hoek	10	−4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	−6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	−11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	−23	1