Koninklijke HFC v Kloetinge prediction · Tweede Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Koninklijke HFC 2–1 Kloetinge KONINKLIJKE HFC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Koninklijke HFC win~~51%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.366

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.478

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Koninklijke HFC win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Koninklijke HFC 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–26
1′KICK-OFF Koninklijke HFC v Kloetinge
8′Kloetinge find the net on 7′. 0–1. 0–1 · 26–23–51
8′We said Koninklijke HFC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–1 · 26–23–51
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Koninklijke HFC 0–1 Kloetinge
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Koninklijke HFC win: 51% at kick-off, 26% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Kloetinge win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Koninklijke HFC win 26%)
14′We said Koninklijke HFC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–24–52
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Koninklijke HFC win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
30′We said Koninklijke HFC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–25–55
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 19–25–55
45′We said Koninklijke HFC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
45′HALF-TIME Koninklijke HFC 0–1 Kloetinge
46′SECOND HALF Koninklijke HFC 0–1 Kloetinge
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Koninklijke HFC · On: R. Heeremans · Off: M. Ploem
51′A goal for Koninklijke HFC on 51′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 38–40–22
51′We said Koninklijke HFC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 38%. 1–1 · 38–40–22
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Koninklijke HFC 1–1 Kloetinge
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Koninklijke HFC win: 51% at kick-off, 38% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Kloetinge win 22%)
58′We said Koninklijke HFC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–45–21
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Koninklijke HFC win: 51% at kick-off, 31% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kloetinge · On: E. Franse · Off: J. Dijkstra
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Kloetinge · On: L. Admiraal · Off: D. Wissel
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Koninklijke HFC · On: J. Kors · Off: F. Klomp
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Koninklijke HFC win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Kloetinge
79′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Koninklijke HFC
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kloetinge · On: A. de Waal · Off: S. Schalkwijk
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Kloetinge · On: Y. Azzagari · Off: G. Vandepitte
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Koninklijke HFC win: 51% at kick-off, 10% now
86′We said Koninklijke HFC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–85–6
92′We said Koninklijke HFC at 51%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–3
101′Koninklijke HFC score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
101′⚽ GOAL · 90+11' Koninklijke HFC 2–1 Kloetinge
101′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+11' Koninklijke HFC win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
101′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+11' Koninklijke HFC win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
FTFULL TIME Koninklijke HFC 2–1 Kloetinge
FTKoninklijke HFC 2–1 Kloetinge · Koninklijke HFC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Koninklijke HFC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Koninklijke HFC 51%, draw 23%, Kloetinge 26%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Koninklijke HFC v KloetingeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Koninklijke HFC win51%

Draw23%

Kloetinge win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSportpark Spanjaardslaan

Line-ups

Koninklijke HFC

Kloetinge

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Koninklijke HFC

Kloetinge

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Kloetinge	9	−10	7
17	Koninklijke HFC	9	−7	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Koninklijke HFC

Formation not confirmed

1 J. van der Sar

77 A. Morgan

2 M. Ploem

4 J. van der Weijden

14 J. Kranthove

20 T. de Boer

8 M. Fichtinger

12 L. Klaasen

7 F. Klomp

10 D. Ladan

9 N. Donker

Coach · –

Substitutes

44 · L. d. Meza

40 · O. Diallo

6 · F. Gemmel

3 · R. Heeremans

15 · J. Kors

11 · R. Mwenda

19 · T. Ras

Kloetinge

Formation not confirmed

1 T. van Remortel

12 K. van Hecke

16 T. Lijbers

4 J. Theunisse

8 D. van den Berg

10 G. Vandepitte

6 V. van Keulen

21 D. Wissel

7 J. Dijkstra

20 S. Schalkwijk

9 R. de Jager

Coach · –

Substitutes

31 · M. Lentink

22 · R. van Gogh

14 · Y. Azzagari

37 · L. Admiraal

17 · E. Franse

11 · A. de Waal

Our number · koninklijke hfc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

51% The market44%

Us51%

~~Market~~44%

We make Koninklijke HFC a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Koninklijke HFC v Kloetinge~~1.76 – 1.19

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 6 v 7~~17 v 16

~~The market · Koninklijke HFC win~~44% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Koninklijke HFC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Koninklijke HFC win	51%	44%	+7
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Kloetinge win	26%	32%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	56%	62%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	64%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	82%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	41%	−7
Koninklijke HFC or draw	74%	68%	+6
Koninklijke HFC clean sheet	31%	–	–
Kloetinge clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.4 6.4 3.8 1 9.4 10.7 6.4 2.6 2 8.1 9.4 5.6 2.3 3 4.7 5.5 3.3 4 2.1 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Koninklijke HFC down, Kloetinge across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,695 Tweede Divisie matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Koninklijke HFC at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Kloetinge away: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 4).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Koninklijke HFC, 1.19 for Kloetinge. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~KLO 1–3 KON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

KONINKLIJKE HFC

DDLDLL2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–2

KLOETINGE

LDLDLD0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	9	+22	24
2	Kozakken Boys	9	+13	20
3	De Treffers	9	+15	18
4	Ijsselmeervogels	9	+4	16
5	GVVV Veenendaal	9	+3	15
6	HHC	9	+3	15
7	Barendrecht	9	−1	14
8	AFC Amsterdam	9	0	13
9	Spakenburg	9	−3	13
10	Sparta Rotterdam II	9	+5	12
11	RKAV Volendam	9	−1	12
12	Katwijk	9	−8	11
13	Almere City II	9	+1	10
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	9	−10	10
15	Hoek	9	−4	9
16	Kloetinge	9	−10	7
17	Koninklijke HFC	9	−7	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	9	−22	1