Home › Football › Tweede Divisie › Kloetinge v Katwijk

Kloetinge v Katwijk

Kloetinge

1–3Full time

Katwijk

Tweede Divisie · SAT 24 OCT · Sportpark Wesselopark

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Kloetinge 1–3 Katwijk KATWIJK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Katwijk win~~49%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.394

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.497

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Katwijk win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Katwijk was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 30–21–49
1′KICK-OFF Kloetinge v Katwijk
8′Katwijk score on 7′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–16–70
8′We published Katwijk at 49%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 14–16–70
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' Kloetinge 0–1 Katwijk
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Katwijk win: 49% at kick-off, 70% now
17′Katwijk find the net on 17′. 0–2. 0–2 · 4–8–87
17′We published Katwijk at 49%. Our model now makes it 87%. 0–2 · 4–8–87
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Kloetinge 0–2 Katwijk
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Katwijk win: 49% at kick-off, 87% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Katwijk win: 49% at kick-off, 89% now
35′We published Katwijk at 49%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–2 · 3–7–90
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Katwijk
40′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 0–2 · 2–7–90
45′HALF-TIME Kloetinge 0–2 Katwijk
46′SECOND HALF Kloetinge 0–2 Katwijk
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kloetinge · On: W. Neelen · Off: G. Vandepitte
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Kloetinge · On: L. Admiraal · Off: J. Dijkstra
55′A goal for Katwijk on 55′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Kloetinge 0–3 Katwijk
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Katwijk win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
56′We published Katwijk at 49%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
56′F. Janmaat scores for Katwijk on 54′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
58′Kloetinge score on 57′ to make it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
58′4 goals already, more than the 3.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Kloetinge 1–3 Katwijk
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Katwijk win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Katwijk · On: D. Warmerdam · Off: V. van den Bogert
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Katwijk
72′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kloetinge · On: E. Franse · Off: S. Schalkwijk
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Katwijk · On: M. Jesse · Off: I. el Moussaoui
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Katwijk win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Katwijk · On: K. van der Veldt · Off: C. Toure
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Katwijk · On: D. Maatsen · Off: F. Janmaat
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Kloetinge
84′We published Katwijk at 49%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Kloetinge
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Kloetinge · On: A. de Waal · Off: J. Theunisse
90′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Kloetinge · On: Y. Azzagari · Off: V. van Keulen
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Katwijk
FTFULL TIME Kloetinge 1–3 Katwijk
FTKloetinge 1–3 Katwijk · Katwijk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Katwijk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Kloetinge 30%, draw 21%, Katwijk 49%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 69%.

The AI’s read on Kloetinge v KatwijkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Kloetinge win30%

Draw21%

Katwijk win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportpark Wesselopark

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Kloetinge

Katwijk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Katwijk	10	−9	11
17	Kloetinge	10	−11	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · katwijk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

49% The market43%

Us49%

~~Market~~43%

We make Katwijk a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Kloetinge v Katwijk~~1.58 – 2.06

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 7 v 11~~17 v 13

~~The market · Katwijk win~~43% · ours 49%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Katwijk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Kloetinge win	30%	34%	−4
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Katwijk win	49%	43%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	70%	67%	+3
Both teams to score	69%	67%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	49%	46%	+3
Kloetinge or draw	51%	57%	−6
Kloetinge clean sheet	13%	–	–
Katwijk clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.6%

0123450 2.7 5.6 5.6 3.8 2.0 1 4.3 8.4 8.6 5.9 3.1 2 3.3 6.6 6.7 4.6 2.4 3 3.5 3.6 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Kloetinge down, Katwijk across0–5 goals a side shown (97.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,704 Tweede Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2023/24.

Home and away form

Kloetinge at home: 2.00 scored, 2.40 conceded a game (last 5). Katwijk away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Kloetinge, 2.06 for Katwijk. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2023/24

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2023/24.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

KLOETINGE

DLDLDL1–1 · 0–3 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 3–3 · 1–2

KATWIJK

DLWLLL2–2 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–5 · 0–6 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	10	+22	25
2	De Treffers	10	+16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	+13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	+5	19
5	HHC	10	+4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	+2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	+2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	−3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	−3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	−9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	+4	12
13	Katwijk	10	−9	11
14	Almere City II	10	0	10
15	Hoek	10	−4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	−6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	−11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	−23	1