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Ijsselmeervogels v Spakenburg

Ijsselmeervogels

2–1Full time

Spakenburg

Tweede Divisie · SAT 24 OCT · Sportpark De Westmaat

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Ijsselmeervogels 2–1 Spakenburg SPAKENBURG WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Spakenburg win~~40%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.624

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.571

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Spakenburg win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Spakenburg 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 36–23–40
1′KICK-OFF Ijsselmeervogels v Spakenburg
5′A goal for Spakenburg on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 17–19–64
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Ijsselmeervogels 0–1 Spakenburg
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Spakenburg win: 40% at kick-off, 64% now
6′We said Spakenburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 64%. 0–1 · 17–19–64
11′We said Spakenburg at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–1 · 16–19–65
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Ijsselmeervogels
24′Ijsselmeervogels score on 24′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 34–28–38
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Ijsselmeervogels 1–1 Spakenburg
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Spakenburg win: 40% at kick-off, 38% now
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Ijsselmeervogels
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Ijsselmeervogels
45′HALF-TIME Ijsselmeervogels 1–1 Spakenburg
46′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 31–36–33
46′SECOND HALF Ijsselmeervogels 1–1 Spakenburg
47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Spakenburg
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Ijsselmeervogels · On: J. van den Dikkenberg · Off: J. Ruizendaal
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Spakenburg win 35%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Spakenburg win: 40% at kick-off, 30% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Spakenburg
60′We said Spakenburg at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 26–45–28
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Spakenburg · On: G. da Fonseca · Off: H. van Lopik
64′Ijsselmeervogels find the net on 64′. 2–1. 2–1 · 74–21–6
64′We said Spakenburg at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–1 · 74–21–6
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Ijsselmeervogels 2–1 Spakenburg
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Spakenburg win: 40% at kick-off, 6% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Ijsselmeervogels win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 49%)
68′We said Spakenburg at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 76–20–4
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Spakenburg · On: J. Guiting · Off: T. Linthorst
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Spakenburg · On: M. Afaker · Off: A. el Azzouti
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ijsselmeervogels · On: A. Moumouh · Off: G. Robertha
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Spakenburg · On: F. Quaedvlieg · Off: S. Hage
80′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Spakenburg · On: D. Kunst · Off: M. van der Weijden
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Spakenburg win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Ijsselmeervogels · On: D. Beukers · Off: J. Mattheij Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Ijsselmeervogels · On: D. Beukers · Off: J. Beers
FTFULL TIME Ijsselmeervogels 2–1 Spakenburg
FTIjsselmeervogels 2–1 Spakenburg · Spakenburg win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Spakenburg just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ijsselmeervogels 36%, draw 23%, Spakenburg 40%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Ijsselmeervogels v SpakenburgBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ijsselmeervogels win36%

Draw23%

Spakenburg win40%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportpark De Westmaat

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ijsselmeervogels

Spakenburg

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tweede Divisie

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	+5	19
9	Spakenburg	10	−3	14

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · spakenburg winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market36%

Us40%

~~Market~~36%

We make Spakenburg a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ijsselmeervogels v Spakenburg~~1.53 – 1.63

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 19 v 14~~4 v 9

~~The market · Spakenburg win~~36% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Spakenburg win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ijsselmeervogels win	36%	39%	−3
Draw	23%	25%	−2
Spakenburg win	40%	36%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	61%	62%	−1
Both teams to score	62%	65%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	42%	−3
Ijsselmeervogels or draw	60%	64%	−4
Ijsselmeervogels clean sheet	20%	–	–
Spakenburg clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.4 7.1 5.7 3.1 1 6.6 10.4 8.4 4.6 2 5.0 8.0 6.4 3.5 3 2.6 4.1 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ijsselmeervogels down, Spakenburg across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,704 Tweede Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ijsselmeervogels at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Spakenburg away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Ijsselmeervogels, 1.63 for Spakenburg. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~IJS 0–2 SPA · SPA 1–0 IJS · IJS 4–1 SPA · SPA 1–1 IJS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

IJSSELMEERVOGELS

WWLWLW1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 2–1

SPAKENBURG

WDLWLD3–0 · 1–1 · 0–5 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	10	+22	25
2	De Treffers	10	+16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	+13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	+5	19
5	HHC	10	+4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	+2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	+2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	−3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	−3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	−9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	+4	12
13	Katwijk	10	−9	11
14	Almere City II	10	0	10
15	Hoek	10	−4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	−6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	−11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	−23	1