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Ijsselmeervogels v Koninklijke HFC

Ijsselmeervogels

2–0Full time

Koninklijke HFC

Tweede Divisie · SAT 10 OCT · Sportpark De Westmaat

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Ijsselmeervogels 2–0 Koninklijke HFC IJSSELMEERVOGELS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Ijsselmeervogels win~~45%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.457

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.293

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ijsselmeervogels win at 45%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Ijsselmeervogels 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–27–29
2′KICK-OFF Ijsselmeervogels v Koninklijke HFC
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Ijsselmeervogels win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Ijsselmeervogels win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Ijsselmeervogels 0–0 Koninklijke HFC
46′SECOND HALF Ijsselmeervogels 0–0 Koninklijke HFC
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Koninklijke HFC · On: J. van der Weijden · Off: T. Ras
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Koninklijke HFC · On: R. Mwenda · Off: O. Diallo
54′We said Ijsselmeervogels at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 32–46–23
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Ijsselmeervogels 1–0 Koninklijke HFC
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Ijsselmeervogels · On: J. van den Dikkenberg · Off: R. Reemnet
68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Koninklijke HFC
74′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ijsselmeervogels · On: D. Beukers · Off: Q. Dumay
74′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Ijsselmeervogels · On: J. Ruizendaal · Off: R. Schulte
74′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Koninklijke HFC · On: N. Donker · Off: T. de Boer
82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Ijsselmeervogels · On: A. Belgadi · Off: G. Robertha
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' J. Beers · Ijsselmeervogels
86′⚽ GOAL · 85' Ijsselmeervogels 2–0 Koninklijke HFC
FTFULL TIME Ijsselmeervogels 2–0 Koninklijke HFC
FTIjsselmeervogels 2–0 Koninklijke HFC · Ijsselmeervogels win: right · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ijsselmeervogels win45%

Draw26%

Koninklijke HFC win29%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Sportpark De Westmaat

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ijsselmeervogels

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Kaarsgaren

2 G. van de Groep

22 J. Schuurman

27 J. Mattheij

15 Q. Dumay

7 M. Hardijk

10 R. Schulte

6 J. van Eerden

24 G. Robertha

9 J. Beers

29 R. Reemnet

Coach · Willem Leushuis

Substitutes

20 · R. van Kouwen

26 · D. Beukers

28 · J. Janssen

14 · J. Ruizendaal

16 · A. Belgadi

18 · B. Spijkerman

17 · J. van den Dikkenberg

Koninklijke HFC

Formation not confirmed

21 K. Bucker

3 R. Heeremans

77 A. Morgan

14 J. Kranthove

19 T. Ras

8 M. Fichtinger

7 F. Klomp

40 O. Diallo

20 T. de Boer

10 D. Ladan

12 L. Klaasen

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · F. Gemmel

1 · J. van der Sar

2 · M. Ploem

11 · R. Mwenda

9 · N. Donker

25 · N. Mokhtari

4 · J. van der Weijden

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ijsselmeervogels

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Kaarsgaren

2 G. van de Groep

22 J. Schuurman

27 J. Mattheij

15 Q. Dumay

7 M. Hardijk

10 R. Schulte

6 J. van Eerden

24 G. Robertha

9 J. Beers

29 R. Reemnet

Coach · Willem Leushuis

Substitutes

20 · R. van Kouwen

26 · D. Beukers

28 · J. Janssen

14 · J. Ruizendaal

16 · A. Belgadi

18 · B. Spijkerman

17 · J. van den Dikkenberg

Koninklijke HFC

Formation not confirmed

21 K. Bucker

3 R. Heeremans

77 A. Morgan

14 J. Kranthove

19 T. Ras

8 M. Fichtinger

7 F. Klomp

40 O. Diallo

20 T. de Boer

10 D. Ladan

12 L. Klaasen

Coach · –

Substitutes

6 · F. Gemmel

1 · J. van der Sar

2 · M. Ploem

11 · R. Mwenda

9 · N. Donker

25 · N. Mokhtari

4 · J. van der Weijden

Our number · ijsselmeervogels winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

45% The market56%

Us45%

~~Market~~56%

We make Ijsselmeervogels a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ijsselmeervogels win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ijsselmeervogels win	45%	56%	−11
Draw	26%	23%	+3
Koninklijke HFC win	29%	21%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	47%	60%	−13
Both teams to score	51%	59%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	80%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	26%	38%	−13
Ijsselmeervogels or draw	71%	79%	−8
Ijsselmeervogels clean sheet	33%	–	–
Koninklijke HFC clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.8 8.8 4.8 1 11.3 12.2 6.8 2.6 2 8.1 8.8 4.9 3 3.9 4.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ijsselmeervogels down, Koninklijke HFC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,685 Tweede Divisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.83 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ijsselmeervogels at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Koninklijke HFC away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for Ijsselmeervogels, 1.11 for Koninklijke HFC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.83

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KON 1–0 IJS · IJS 3–0 KON · IJS 2–3 KON · KON 2–0 IJS

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie

IJSSELMEERVOGELS

LDWWWL0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 1–2

KONINKLIJKE HFC

WDDLDL2–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	8	+16	21
2	Kozakken Boys	8	+11	17
3	De Treffers	8	+11	15
4	Barendrecht	8	+3	14
5	HHC	8	+3	14
6	Ijsselmeervogels	7	+5	13
7	Spakenburg	8	−1	13
8	Sparta Rotterdam II	8	+8	12
9	Katwijk	8	−2	11
10	AFC Amsterdam	8	−2	10
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	8	−7	10
12	Hoek	8	−2	9
13	GVVV Veenendaal	7	−3	9
14	RKAV Volendam	8	−7	9
15	Almere City II	8	−2	7
16	Koninklijke HFC	8	−5	6
17	Kloetinge	8	−10	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	8	−16	1