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Model 1.2

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Hoek v Kozakken Boys

Hoek
0–0Full time
Kozakken Boys

Tweede Divisie · SAT 17 OCT · Sportpark Denoek

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26
Hoek 0–0 Kozakken Boys HOEK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Hoek win46%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.883
The market’s Brier score0.847

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Hoek win at 46%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Hoek was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hoek v Kozakken Boys
  4. 23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Kozakken Boys
  5. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Kozakken Boys
  6. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Kozakken Boys
  7. 44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Hoek
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Hoek 0–0 Kozakken Boys
  9. 46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Hoek win: 46% at kick-off, 36% now
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Hoek 0–0 Kozakken Boys
  11. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Hoek win 35%)
  12. 52′We said Hoek at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–41–25
  13. 55′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 33–43–24
  14. 62′We said Hoek at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–49–22
  15. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kozakken Boys · On: M. Maletic · Off: D. Versluis
  16. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Kozakken Boys · On: M. Hassan · Off: M. van den Berg
  17. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Hoek · On: A. Jalloh · Off: C. Van Daele
  18. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Hoek · On: M. Bostdorp · Off: K. Hebbelinck
  19. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Hoek · On: D. Demuynck · Off: T. Boere
  20. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Hoek win: 46% at kick-off, 26% now
  21. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Kozakken Boys · On: S. Jalloh · Off: S. Hop
  22. 70′We said Hoek at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–58–18
  23. 76′We said Hoek at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–67–14
  24. 78′We said Hoek at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 17–70–13
  25. 78′We expected about 2.9 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 17–70–13
  26. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Hoek · On: M. Steenpoorte · Off: N. Aelterman
  27. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Kozakken Boys · On: S. Martina · Off: G. Damen
  28. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Hoek win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
  29. 81′We said Hoek at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–76–10
  30. 85′We said Hoek at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–7
  31. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Hoek win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  32. 91′We said Hoek at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–3
  33. 91′A red card for Kozakken Boys on 72′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 4–92–3
  34. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 72' D. den Besten · Kozakken Boys
  35. 91′🟥 RED CARD · 72' D. den Besten · Kozakken Boys
  36. FTFULL TIME Hoek 0–0 Kozakken Boys
  37. FTHoek 0–0 Kozakken Boys · Hoek win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Hoek are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hoek 46%, draw 24%, Kozakken Boys 30%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Hoek v Kozakken BoysBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Hoek win46%
Draw24%
Kozakken Boys win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSportpark Denoek

Line-ups

Hoek

Kozakken Boys

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hoek

Kozakken Boys

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Tweede Divisie

Last match: 10 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Kozakken Boys9+1320
15Hoek9−49

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Hoek

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Standaert

2 R. de Poorter

24 G. Siereveld

4 L. Ketels

5 Y. de Nooijer

14 R. Van Hauter

18 H. Bouihrouchane

6 C. Van Daele

10 N. Aelterman

7 K. Hebbelinck

23 T. Boere

Coach · Gerard de Nooijer

Substitutes

11 · M. Bostdorp

22 · D. Demuynck

19 · A. Jalloh

3 · J. Pengel

16 · M. Steenpoorte

30 · S. Van Damme

Kozakken Boys

Formation not confirmed

1 R. ten Hove

20 D. den Besten

6 T. Sas

23 J. Giebels

17 D. Pedro

24 G. Damen

3 S. Hop

12 G. Stout

21 Z. Deurloo

9 D. Versluis

15 M. van den Berg

Coach · –

Substitutes

11 · S. Jalloh

16 · J. Koorevaar

19 · J. Lommers

14 · M. Maletic

4 · S. Martina

7 · M. Hassan

18 · Y. Taytay

Our number · hoek winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
46% The market35%
Us46%
Market35%

We make Hoek a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hoek v Kozakken Boys1.65 – 1.29
Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 9 v 2015 v 2
The market · Hoek win35% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 12:54
Our probability · Hoek win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hoek win46%35%+11
Draw24%25%−1
Kozakken Boys win30%40%−10
Over 2.5 goals56%61%−5
Both teams to score58%64%−6
Over 1.5 goals79%82%−3
Over 3.5 goals34%41%−7
Hoek or draw70%60%+10
Hoek clean sheet28%––
Kozakken Boys clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%
0123450 5.4 7.0 4.4 1 8.9 11.0 7.1 3.1 2 7.2 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.0 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hoek down, Kozakken Boys across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsHOE 1–2 KOZ · KOZ 1–3 HOE · KOZ 1–1 HOE · HOE 3–0 KOZ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

HOEK

LDDLWL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–2

KOZAKKEN BOYS

WWWDWW2–1 · 6–1 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Quick Boys9+2224
2Kozakken Boys9+1320
3De Treffers9+1518
4Ijsselmeervogels9+416
5GVVV Veenendaal9+315
6HHC9+315
7Barendrecht9−114
8AFC Amsterdam9013
9Spakenburg9−313
10Sparta Rotterdam II9+512
11RKAV Volendam9−112
12Katwijk9−811
13Almere City II9+110
14Rijnsburgse Boys9−1010
15Hoek9−49
16Kloetinge9−107
17Koninklijke HFC9−76
18ROHDA Raalte9−221

The competition's standings before kick-off.