HHC v GVVV Veenendaal prediction · Tweede Divisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

HHC 2–1 GVVV Veenendaal HHC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said HHC win~~51%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.355

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.431

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said HHC win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: HHC was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–21–27
1′KICK-OFF HHC v GVVV Veenendaal
34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' HHC · On: B. Scholte · Off: S. Deuling
45′HALF-TIME HHC 0–0 GVVV Veenendaal
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' HHC win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
46′SECOND HALF HHC 0–0 GVVV Veenendaal
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' GVVV Veenendaal · On: S. Martina · Off: A. van Soest
51′We said HHC at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–36–24
52′HHC score on 52′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
52′We published HHC at 51%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' HHC 1–0 GVVV Veenendaal
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' HHC win: 51% at kick-off, 76% now
54′HHC find the net on 54′. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
54′We published HHC at 51%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' HHC 2–0 GVVV Veenendaal
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' HHC win: 51% at kick-off, 94% now
55′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 94–5–1
56′We published HHC at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
56′SUBSTITUTION · 52' HHC · On: G. Zwikstra · Off: T. Reinders
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' GVVV Veenendaal · On: G. Slijkhuis · Off: B. van Essen
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' GVVV Veenendaal · On: J. Houtriet · Off: M. de Jong
77′HHC ahead on 54′ through M. Pouwels. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
77′We published HHC at 51%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' HHC · On: M. Steenvoorden · Off: M. Pouwels
80′SUBSTITUTION · 74' HHC · On: D. Bouws · Off: N. ten Brinke
83′We published HHC at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
92′A goal for GVVV Veenendaal on 90′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 97–3–0
92′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 2–1 · 97–3–0
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' HHC 2–1 GVVV Veenendaal
FTFULL TIME HHC 2–1 GVVV Veenendaal
FTHHC 2–1 GVVV Veenendaal · HHC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

HHC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: HHC 51%, draw 21%, GVVV Veenendaal 27%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on HHC v GVVV VeenendaalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

HHC win51%

Draw21%

GVVV Veenendaal win27%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSportpark de Boshoek

Line-ups

HHC

GVVV Veenendaal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

HHC

GVVV Veenendaal

7Days since last match4

Last match: 10 Oct · Tweede Divisie

Last match: 13 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	GVVV Veenendaal	9	+3	15
6	HHC	9	+3	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

HHC

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Maats

5 J. Vermaning

3 S. Fatima

24 L. Prljic

2 T. Sopacua

22 N. ten Brinke

8 T. Olde Weghuis

7 M. Witteveen

14 S. Deuling

23 T. Reinders

28 M. Pouwels

Coach · Rene van der Weij

Substitutes

20 · D. Bouws

6 · D. Otten

19 · B. Scholte

15 · A. Slot

4 · M. Steenvoorden

26 · T. Terhalle

9 · G. Zwikstra

GVVV Veenendaal

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Heus

2 T. Dilrosun

3 M. Willems

4 K. Hillen

20 J. Potjes

21 J. Spies

25 M. de Jong

9 B. van Essen

34 A. Yadir

6 A. van Soest

10 Q. Veenhof

Coach · Gery Vink

Substitutes

5 · D. Hillen

27 · J. Houtriet

11 · N. Huls

7 · S. Martina

29 · G. Slijkhuis

31 · M. Yaroshevych

Our number · hhc winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:46 · locked at kick-off

51% The market47%

Us51%

~~Market~~47%

We make HHC a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · HHC v GVVV Veenendaal~~2.02 – 1.42

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 15~~6 v 5

~~The market · HHC win~~47% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · HHC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
HHC win	51%	47%	+4
Draw	21%	24%	−3
GVVV Veenendaal win	27%	30%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	66%	66%	0
Both teams to score	65%	67%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	83%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	45%	0
HHC or draw	73%	70%	+3
HHC clean sheet	25%	–	–
GVVV Veenendaal clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.3 4.8 3.3 1 6.7 9.1 6.4 3.1 2 6.6 9.1 6.4 3.0 3 4.4 6.1 4.3 2.0 4 2.3 3.1 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+HHC down, GVVV Veenendaal across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,695 Tweede Divisie matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.1% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 5 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

HHC at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). GVVV Veenendaal away: 2.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for HHC, 1.42 for GVVV Veenendaal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GVV 1–2 HHC · HHC 3–2 GVV · HHC 1–1 GVV · GVV 2–1 HHC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 5 Sept

HHC

DDLLWD2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–3

GVVV VEENENDAAL

LWWWWW0–3 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	9	+22	24
2	Kozakken Boys	9	+13	20
3	De Treffers	9	+15	18
4	Ijsselmeervogels	9	+4	16
5	GVVV Veenendaal	9	+3	15
6	HHC	9	+3	15
7	Barendrecht	9	−1	14
8	AFC Amsterdam	9	0	13
9	Spakenburg	9	−3	13
10	Sparta Rotterdam II	9	+5	12
11	RKAV Volendam	9	−1	12
12	Katwijk	9	−8	11
13	Almere City II	9	+1	10
14	Rijnsburgse Boys	9	−10	10
15	Hoek	9	−4	9
16	Kloetinge	9	−10	7
17	Koninklijke HFC	9	−7	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	9	−22	1