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GVVV Veenendaal v Rijnsburgse Boys

GVVV Veenendaal

4–1Full time

Rijnsburgse Boys

Tweede Divisie · SAT 10 OCT · Sportpark Panhuis

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

GVVV Veenendaal 4–1 Rijnsburgse Boys RIJNSBURGSE BOYS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rijnsburgse Boys win~~48%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.722

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.643

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rijnsburgse Boys win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF GVVV Veenendaal v Rijnsburgse Boys
2′Much as we predicted: Rijnsburgse Boys was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 32–20–48
8′⚽ GOAL · 8' GVVV Veenendaal 1–0 Rijnsburgse Boys
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' GVVV Veenendaal 2–0 Rijnsburgse Boys
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' GVVV Veenendaal 3–0 Rijnsburgse Boys
20′16′ and it is 3–0: Q. Veenhof on the scoresheet for GVVV Veenendaal. 3–0 · 89–7–4
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Rijnsburgse Boys win: 48% at kick-off, 4% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' GVVV Veenendaal win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Rijnsburgse Boys win 4%)
30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' R. Zandbergen · Rijnsburgse Boys
34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Rijnsburgse Boys · On: Y. Tufi · Off: K. Lever
40′We said Rijnsburgse Boys at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 3–0 · 94–5–2
45′GVVV Veenendaal find the net on 45′. 4–0. 4–0 · 99–1–0
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Rijnsburgse Boys
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Rijnsburgse Boys
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' R. Zandbergen · Rijnsburgse Boys
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' GVVV Veenendaal 4–0 Rijnsburgse Boys
45′HALF-TIME GVVV Veenendaal 4–0 Rijnsburgse Boys
45′⚽ GOAL · 8' GVVV Veenendaal 4–0 Rijnsburgse Boys · J. Spies (assist T. Dilrosun)
45′⚽ GOAL · 13' GVVV Veenendaal 4–0 Rijnsburgse Boys · B. van Essen (assist Q. Veenhof)
45′⚽ GOAL · 16' GVVV Veenendaal 4–0 Rijnsburgse Boys · Q. Veenhof
45′🟨 YELLOW · 28' R. Zandbergen · Rijnsburgse Boys
45′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Rijnsburgse Boys · On: Y. Tufi · Off: K. Lever
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' R. Zandbergen · Rijnsburgse Boys
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' GVVV Veenendaal 4–0 Rijnsburgse Boys · J. Potjes (assist A. van Soest)
46′SECOND HALF GVVV Veenendaal 4–0 Rijnsburgse Boys
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rijnsburgse Boys · On: S. Bastmeijer · Off: B. de Bruin
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Rijnsburgse Boys · On: N. de Haas · Off: N. Klaver
54′A red card for Rijnsburgse Boys on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 4–0 · 99–1–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' GVVV Veenendaal 4–1 Rijnsburgse Boys
74′Y. Tufi scores for Rijnsburgse Boys on 66′ — 4–1. 4–1 · 99–1–0
77′SUBSTITUTION · 74' GVVV Veenendaal · On: Y. Roseboom · Off: Q. Veenhof
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' GVVV Veenendaal · On: S. Martina · Off: B. van Essen
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' GVVV Veenendaal · On: G. Slijkhuis · Off: A. Yadir
86′SUBSTITUTION · 82' GVVV Veenendaal · On: J. Houtriet · Off: M. de Jong
FTFULL TIME GVVV Veenendaal 4–1 Rijnsburgse Boys
FTGVVV Veenendaal 4–1 Rijnsburgse Boys · Rijnsburgse Boys win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

GVVV Veenendaal win33%

Draw20%

Rijnsburgse Boys win48%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

Venue · Sportpark Panhuis

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

GVVV Veenendaal

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Heus

2 T. Dilrosun

3 M. Willems

4 K. Hillen

20 J. Potjes

25 M. de Jong

34 A. Yadir

6 A. van Soest

21 J. Spies

9 B. van Essen

10 Q. Veenhof

Coach · Gery Vink

Substitutes

31 · M. Yaroshevych

5 · D. Hillen

7 · S. Martina

11 · N. Huls

17 · Y. Roseboom

27 · J. Houtriet

29 · G. Slijkhuis

Rijnsburgse Boys

Formation not confirmed

16 T. Van der Kleij

28 C. Tureaij

6 B. Ros

5 R. Zandbergen

33 C. Van Bohemen

18 B. de Bruin

8 N. Klaver

19 J. Buitenweg

30 S. van Rooijen

7 I. Kariouh

10 K. Lever

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · S. Bastmeijer

14 · E. Broug

29 · T. Maarschalkerweerd

32 · N. de Haas

22 · J. van Nobelen

34 · Y. Tufi

21 · J. Walters

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

GVVV Veenendaal

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Heus

2 T. Dilrosun

3 M. Willems

4 K. Hillen

20 J. Potjes

25 M. de Jong

34 A. Yadir

6 A. van Soest

21 J. Spies

9 B. van Essen

10 Q. Veenhof

Coach · Gery Vink

Substitutes

31 · M. Yaroshevych

5 · D. Hillen

7 · S. Martina

11 · N. Huls

17 · Y. Roseboom

27 · J. Houtriet

29 · G. Slijkhuis

Rijnsburgse Boys

Formation not confirmed

16 T. Van der Kleij

28 C. Tureaij

6 B. Ros

5 R. Zandbergen

33 C. Van Bohemen

18 B. de Bruin

8 N. Klaver

19 J. Buitenweg

30 S. van Rooijen

7 I. Kariouh

10 K. Lever

Coach · –

Substitutes

9 · S. Bastmeijer

14 · E. Broug

29 · T. Maarschalkerweerd

32 · N. de Haas

22 · J. van Nobelen

34 · Y. Tufi

21 · J. Walters

Our number · rijnsburgse boys winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

48% The market42%

Us48%

~~Market~~42%

We make Rijnsburgse Boys a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–2.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · rijnsburgse boys win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GVVV Veenendaal win	33%	35%	−3
Draw	20%	23%	−3
Rijnsburgse Boys win	48%	42%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	77%	72%	+5
Both teams to score	75%	72%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	91%	88%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	58%	53%	+5
GVVV Veenendaal or draw	52%	58%	−6
GVVV Veenendaal clean sheet	11%	–	–
Rijnsburgse Boys clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 7.6%

0123450 3.9 4.3 3.2 1 3.3 6.9 7.6 5.7 3.2 2 2.9 6.3 6.9 5.2 2.9 3 3.9 4.3 3.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GVVV Veenendaal down, Rijnsburgse Boys across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,685 Tweede Divisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

8 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GVVV Veenendaal at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Rijnsburgse Boys away: 0.67 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.85 goals for GVVV Veenendaal, 2.26 for Rijnsburgse Boys. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 8

~~Both scored~~6 of 8

~~Last meetings~~RIJ 5–0 GVV · GVV 2–1 RIJ · RIJ 3–1 GVV · GVV 2–2 RIJ

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie

GVVV VEENENDAAL

LLLWWW2–3 · 2–3 · 0–3 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 3–1

RIJNSBURGSE BOYS

DWLWLW1–1 · 3–0 · 1–6 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 4–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	8	+16	21
2	Kozakken Boys	8	+11	17
3	De Treffers	8	+11	15
4	Barendrecht	8	+3	14
5	HHC	8	+3	14
6	Ijsselmeervogels	7	+5	13
7	Spakenburg	8	−1	13
8	Sparta Rotterdam II	8	+8	12
9	Katwijk	8	−2	11
10	AFC Amsterdam	8	−2	10
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	8	−7	10
12	Hoek	8	−2	9
13	GVVV Veenendaal	7	−3	9
14	RKAV Volendam	8	−7	9
15	Almere City II	8	−2	7
16	Koninklijke HFC	8	−5	6
17	Kloetinge	8	−10	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	8	−16	1