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GVVV Veenendaal v Koninklijke HFC

GVVV Veenendaal

2–0Full time

Koninklijke HFC

Tweede Divisie · SAT 24 OCT · Sportpark Panhuis

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

GVVV Veenendaal 2–0 Koninklijke HFC GVVV VEENENDAAL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said GVVV Veenendaal win~~46%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.436

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.332

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GVVV Veenendaal win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: GVVV Veenendaal was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
1′KICK-OFF GVVV Veenendaal v Koninklijke HFC
5′GVVV Veenendaal find the net on 5′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–17–12
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' GVVV Veenendaal 1–0 Koninklijke HFC
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' GVVV Veenendaal win: 46% at kick-off, 70% now
6′We published GVVV Veenendaal at 46%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–0 · 70–17–12
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' GVVV Veenendaal
45′HALF-TIME GVVV Veenendaal 1–0 Koninklijke HFC
46′SECOND HALF GVVV Veenendaal 1–0 Koninklijke HFC
48′We published GVVV Veenendaal at 46%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' GVVV Veenendaal win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
65′We published GVVV Veenendaal at 46%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Koninklijke HFC
70′🟨 YELLOW · 65' A. Morgan · Koninklijke HFC
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' GVVV Veenendaal · On: S. Martina · Off: B. van Essen
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Koninklijke HFC · On: J. Kors · Off: F. Klomp
75′We published GVVV Veenendaal at 46%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' GVVV Veenendaal win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Koninklijke HFC · On: M. van Leeuwen · Off: T. de Boer
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Koninklijke HFC
81′We published GVVV Veenendaal at 46%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
84′A goal for GVVV Veenendaal on 84′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′We published GVVV Veenendaal at 46%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Koninklijke HFC · On: T. Ras · Off: A. Morgan
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' GVVV Veenendaal 2–0 Koninklijke HFC
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' GVVV Veenendaal win: 46% at kick-off, over 99% now
87′SUBSTITUTION · 85' GVVV Veenendaal · On: J. Houtriet · Off: M. de Jong
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Koninklijke HFC
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' GVVV Veenendaal · On: F. Helderton · Off: J. Potjes
FTFULL TIME GVVV Veenendaal 2–0 Koninklijke HFC
FTGVVV Veenendaal 2–0 Koninklijke HFC · GVVV Veenendaal win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

GVVV Veenendaal are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: GVVV Veenendaal 46%, draw 24%, Koninklijke HFC 30%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on GVVV Veenendaal v Koninklijke HFCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

GVVV Veenendaal win46%

Draw24%

Koninklijke HFC win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportpark Panhuis

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

GVVV Veenendaal

Koninklijke HFC

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tweede Divisie

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	+2	15
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	−6	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gvvv veenendaal winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

46% The market53%

Us46%

~~Market~~53%

We make GVVV Veenendaal a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · GVVV Veenendaal v Koninklijke HFC~~1.66 – 1.29

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 9~~7 v 16

~~The market · GVVV Veenendaal win~~53% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · GVVV Veenendaal win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GVVV Veenendaal win	46%	53%	−7
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Koninklijke HFC win	30%	25%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	56%	66%	−10
Both teams to score	58%	65%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	82%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	46%	−12
GVVV Veenendaal or draw	70%	75%	−5
GVVV Veenendaal clean sheet	28%	–	–
Koninklijke HFC clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.4 6.9 4.4 1 8.8 11.0 7.1 3.1 2 7.2 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.0 5.1 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GVVV Veenendaal down, Koninklijke HFC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,704 Tweede Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.62 goals a meeting; 4 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GVVV Veenendaal at home: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Koninklijke HFC away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for GVVV Veenendaal, 1.29 for Koninklijke HFC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.62

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GVV 2–1 KON · KON 2–0 GVV · KON 4–1 GVV · GVV 3–1 KON

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

GVVV VEENENDAAL

WWWWWL3–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 3–0 · 1–2

KONINKLIJKE HFC

DLDLLW1–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	10	+22	25
2	De Treffers	10	+16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	+13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	+5	19
5	HHC	10	+4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	+2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	+2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	−3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	−3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	−9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	+4	12
13	Katwijk	10	−9	11
14	Almere City II	10	0	10
15	Hoek	10	−4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	−6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	−11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	−23	1