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De Treffers v Sparta Rotterdam II

De Treffers

3–3Full time

Sparta Rotterdam II

Tweede Divisie · SAT 24 OCT · Sportpark Zuid

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

De Treffers 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam II DE TREFFERS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said De Treffers win~~63%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.124

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.121

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said De Treffers win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: De Treffers 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–17–20
1′KICK-OFF De Treffers v Sparta Rotterdam II
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' De Treffers win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
41′De Treffers score on 41′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' De Treffers 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam II
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' De Treffers win: 63% at kick-off, 79% now
42′We said De Treffers at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–14–7
45′HALF-TIME De Treffers 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam II
46′SECOND HALF De Treffers 1–0 Sparta Rotterdam II
49′Sparta Rotterdam II find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 49–30–21
49′We said De Treffers at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–30–21
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' De Treffers 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam II
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' De Treffers win: 63% at kick-off, 49% now
50′The goal count is tracking the 4.3 we expected. 1–1 · 49–30–21
59′We said De Treffers at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–36–20
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: D. Jermoumi · Off: G. Vianello
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' De Treffers win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: S. Ebite · Off: D. Hanzen
66′We said De Treffers at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–42–19
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was De Treffers win 41%)
70′A goal for Sparta Rotterdam II on 70′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 10–26–64
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' De Treffers 1–2 Sparta Rotterdam II
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' De Treffers win: 63% at kick-off, 10% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Sparta Rotterdam II win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was Draw 47%)
71′We said De Treffers at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–65
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' De Treffers · On: K. Surmeli · Off: R. van Strien
75′SUBSTITUTION · 72' De Treffers · On: G. Vlijter · Off: K. Keizer
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' De Treffers · On: J. Hekkert · Off: B. Brussaard
78′We said De Treffers at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–74
78′De Treffers score on 78′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 26–61–13
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' De Treffers 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam II
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' De Treffers win: 63% at kick-off, 26% now
78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Draw is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Sparta Rotterdam II win 74%)
79′We said De Treffers at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–63–13
82′We said De Treffers at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–71–10
85′Sparta Rotterdam II find the net on 84′. 2–3. 2–3 · 1–13–86
85′5 goals already, more than the 4.3 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–13–86
85′⚽ GOAL · 84' De Treffers 2–3 Sparta Rotterdam II
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' De Treffers win: 63% at kick-off, 1% now
85′THE CALL SWINGS · 85' Sparta Rotterdam II win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 77%)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: J. Inocencio · Off: K. Sallent
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Sparta Rotterdam II · On: B. Leerdam · Off: J. Esser
86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' De Treffers · On: J. Coffie · Off: S. van Bakel
88′A goal for De Treffers on 88′ — 3–3. 3–3 · 11–83–6
88′We said De Treffers at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 3–3 · 11–83–6
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Sparta Rotterdam II
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' De Treffers 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam II
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' De Treffers win: 63% at kick-off, 11% now
88′THE CALL SWINGS · 88' Draw is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Sparta Rotterdam II win 88%)
89′That is 6, and we only asked for 4.3 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 10–85–5
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' De Treffers win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Sparta Rotterdam II
FTFULL TIME De Treffers 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam II
FTDe Treffers 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam II · De Treffers win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

De Treffers are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: De Treffers 63%, draw 17%, Sparta Rotterdam II 20%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on De Treffers v Sparta Rotterdam IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

De Treffers win63%

Draw17%

Sparta Rotterdam II win20%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportpark Zuid

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

De Treffers

Sparta Rotterdam II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	De Treffers	10	+16	21
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	+4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · de treffers winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

63% The market64%

Us63%

~~Market~~64%

We make De Treffers a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · De Treffers v Sparta Rotterdam II~~2.76 – 1.54

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 12~~2 v 12

~~The market · De Treffers win~~64% · ours 63%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · De Treffers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
De Treffers win	63%	64%	−1
Draw	17%	18%	−1
Sparta Rotterdam II win	20%	18%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	80%	75%	+5
Both teams to score	73%	68%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	92%	87%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	62%	56%	+6
De Treffers or draw	80%	82%	−2
De Treffers clean sheet	22%	–	–
Sparta Rotterdam II clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.8%

0123450 2.3 1 3.9 5.9 4.5 2.3 2 5.2 7.8 6.0 3.1 3 4.7 7.1 5.4 2.8 4 3.2 4.9 3.7 5 2.7 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+De Treffers down, Sparta Rotterdam II across0–5 goals a side shown (92.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,704 Tweede Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

De Treffers at home: 3.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sparta Rotterdam II away: 2.17 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.76 goals for De Treffers, 1.54 for Sparta Rotterdam II. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPA 1–4 DET · DET 2–1 SPA · SPA 1–2 DET · DET 2–5 SPA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

DE TREFFERS

DWWLWW1–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 1–3 · 4–0 · 3–2

SPARTA ROTTERDAM II

DDWLLL2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–3 · 1–4 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	10	+22	25
2	De Treffers	10	+16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	+13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	+5	19
5	HHC	10	+4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	+2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	+2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	−3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	−3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	−9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	+4	12
13	Katwijk	10	−9	11
14	Almere City II	10	0	10
15	Hoek	10	−4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	−6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	−11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	−23	1