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De Treffers v Barendrecht

De Treffers

4–0Full time

Barendrecht

Tweede Divisie · SAT 10 OCT · Sportpark Zuid

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

De Treffers 4–0 Barendrecht DE TREFFERS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said De Treffers win~~64%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.191

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.159

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said De Treffers win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: De Treffers 64% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–17–18
8′1′ and it is 1–0: T. Waterink on the scoresheet for De Treffers. 1–0 · 82–11–7
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 65% now
24′1′ and it is 1–0: T. Waterink on the scoresheet for De Treffers. 1–0 · 81–12–7
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 82% now
32′We said De Treffers at 64% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 1–0 · 81–13–6
34′⚽ GOAL · 34' De Treffers 2–0 Barendrecht
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' De Treffers
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Barendrecht
45′A goal for De Treffers on 45′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' De Treffers 3–0 Barendrecht
45′HALF-TIME De Treffers 3–0 Barendrecht
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 81% now
46′SECOND HALF De Treffers 3–0 Barendrecht
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Barendrecht · On: T. Bayram · Off: R. Ouali
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' De Treffers win: 64% at kick-off, 99% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Barendrecht · On: J. Kieboom · Off: E. Fortes
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Barendrecht · On: M. Bakour · Off: O. Mrowicki
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' De Treffers · On: K. Surmeli · Off: W. den Dekker
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' De Treffers · On: J. Hekkert · Off: T. Waterink
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Barendrecht · On: O. Stewart · Off: V. Knol
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' De Treffers 4–0 Barendrecht
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' De Treffers 4–0 Barendrecht · B. Brussaard
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' De Treffers · On: J. Coffie · Off: S. van Bakel
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' De Treffers · On: G. Vlijter · Off: K. Keizer
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' De Treffers · On: J. van der Logt · Off: J. van Hedel
FTFULL TIME De Treffers 4–0 Barendrecht
FTDe Treffers 4–0 Barendrecht · De Treffers win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

De Treffers win64%

Draw17%

Barendrecht win18%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Sportpark Zuid

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

De Treffers

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Stoskovic

12 J. van Hedel

4 J. van Ginkel

2 M. Zeller

7 B. Brussaard

24 K. Keizer

8 S. van der Heijden

5 R. van Strien

10 W. den Dekker

9 T. Waterink

17 S. van Bakel

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · J. Kesting

22 · J. van der Logt

18 · J. Hekkert

6 · R. Ippel

29 · K. Surmeli

19 · J. Coffie

11 · G. Vlijter

Barendrecht

Formation not confirmed

1 Meer Bradley

2 J. Brand

4 V. Knol

3 T. de Graaf

15 K. Rook

9 B. Vugts

10 E. Fortes

24 R. Ouali

21 O. Mrowicki

23 F. Hooreman

11 A. Serghini

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · N. Keehnen

5 · N. Jouhri

6 · T. Bayram

17 · J. Kieboom

25 · R. Rimon

26 · M. Bakour

8 · O. Stewart

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

De Treffers

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Stoskovic

12 J. van Hedel

4 J. van Ginkel

2 M. Zeller

7 B. Brussaard

24 K. Keizer

8 S. van der Heijden

5 R. van Strien

10 W. den Dekker

9 T. Waterink

17 S. van Bakel

Coach · –

Substitutes

23 · J. Kesting

22 · J. van der Logt

18 · J. Hekkert

6 · R. Ippel

29 · K. Surmeli

19 · J. Coffie

11 · G. Vlijter

Barendrecht

Formation not confirmed

1 Meer Bradley

2 J. Brand

4 V. Knol

3 T. de Graaf

15 K. Rook

9 B. Vugts

10 E. Fortes

24 R. Ouali

21 O. Mrowicki

23 F. Hooreman

11 A. Serghini

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · N. Keehnen

5 · N. Jouhri

6 · T. Bayram

17 · J. Kieboom

25 · R. Rimon

26 · M. Bakour

8 · O. Stewart

Our number · de treffers winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

64% The market67%

Us64%

~~Market~~67%

We make De Treffers a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.6–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · de treffers win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
De Treffers win	64%	67%	−3
Draw	17%	18%	−1
Barendrecht win	18%	15%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	75%	70%	+5
Both teams to score	68%	62%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	90%	86%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	56%	51%	+5
De Treffers or draw	82%	85%	−4
De Treffers clean sheet	26%	–	–
Barendrecht clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.6%

0123450 2.7 1 5.1 6.6 4.5 2.1 2 6.4 8.6 5.8 2.6 3 5.6 7.4 5.0 2.3 4 3.7 4.9 3.3 5 2.6

under 2% 5% 12%+De Treffers down, Barendrecht across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,685 Tweede Divisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

De Treffers at home: 2.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Barendrecht away: 2.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.63 goals for De Treffers, 1.35 for Barendrecht. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~DET 3–0 BAR · BAR 2–2 DET · BAR 5–1 DET · DET 1–0 BAR

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie

DE TREFFERS

DDDWWL1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 5–0 · 1–3

BARENDRECHT

LWDDWW0–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	8	+16	21
2	Kozakken Boys	8	+11	17
3	De Treffers	8	+11	15
4	Barendrecht	8	+3	14
5	HHC	8	+3	14
6	Ijsselmeervogels	7	+5	13
7	Spakenburg	8	−1	13
8	Sparta Rotterdam II	8	+8	12
9	Katwijk	8	−2	11
10	AFC Amsterdam	8	−2	10
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	8	−7	10
12	Hoek	8	−2	9
13	GVVV Veenendaal	7	−3	9
14	RKAV Volendam	8	−7	9
15	Almere City II	8	−2	7
16	Koninklijke HFC	8	−5	6
17	Kloetinge	8	−10	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	8	−16	1