Home › Football › Tweede Divisie › AFC Amsterdam v Hoek

AFC Amsterdam v Hoek

AFC Amsterdam

2–0Full time

Hoek

Tweede Divisie · SAT 10 OCT · Sportpark Goed Genoeg

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:52

AFC Amsterdam 2–0 Hoek AFC AMSTERDAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AFC Amsterdam win~~40%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.550

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.670

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Amsterdam win at 40%.
2′Much as we predicted: AFC Amsterdam was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–25–35
2′KICK-OFF AFC Amsterdam v Hoek
16′⚽ GOAL · 15' AFC Amsterdam 1–0 Hoek
23′R. Fonseca scores for AFC Amsterdam on 15′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 67–21–13
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' AFC Amsterdam win: 40% at kick-off, 67% now
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' AFC Amsterdam 2–0 Hoek
27′⚽ GOAL · 15' AFC Amsterdam 2–0 Hoek · R. Fonseca (assist T. Hovenkamp)
27′⚽ GOAL · 25' AFC Amsterdam 2–0 Hoek
30′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Hoek
36′SUBSTITUTION · 32' Hoek · On: H. Bouihrouchane · Off: G. Martens
45′Hoek ahead on 29′ through N. Aelterman. 2–0. 2–0 · 92–7–2
45′HALF-TIME AFC Amsterdam 2–0 Hoek
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' AFC Amsterdam win: 40% at kick-off, 92% now
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hoek · On: T. Boere · Off: D. Demuynck
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hoek · On: M. Steenpoorte · Off: N. Aelterman Corrected
48′SECOND HALF AFC Amsterdam 2–0 Hoek
50′We published AFC Amsterdam at 40%. Our model now makes it 93%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
60′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Hoek · On: A. Jalloh · Off: S. Brebels
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' AFC Amsterdam · On: C. Oostwoud · Off: T. Hovenkamp
72′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hoek · On: M. Steenpoorte · Off: K. Hebbelinck
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' AFC Amsterdam · On: G. de Jager · Off: F. van der Linden
78′SUBSTITUTION · 73' AFC Amsterdam · On: G. Markiet · Off: M. Elstak
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' AFC Amsterdam · On: J. Nsingi · Off: A. Bensabouh
90′🟨 YELLOW · 89' M. Klopper · AFC Amsterdam
FTFULL TIME AFC Amsterdam 2–0 Hoek
FTAFC Amsterdam 2–0 Hoek · AFC Amsterdam win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

AFC Amsterdam win40%

Draw25%

Hoek win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:15

Venue · Sportpark Goed Genoeg

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

AFC Amsterdam

Formation not confirmed

1 G. van Zetten

24 I. Lee

40 L. van der Graaf

55 T. Letschert

5 C. Claver

13 T. Hovenkamp

14 M. Klopper

20 M. Elstak

11 R. Fonseca

9 F. van der Linden

18 A. Bensabouh

Coach · Chedric Seedorf

Substitutes

30 · B. Kroll

17 · R. Aharchaoui

3 · G. Markiet

34 · C. Oostwoud

28 · G. de Jager

23 · J. Nsingi

Hoek

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Standaert

4 L. Ketels

21 G. Martens

24 G. Siereveld

5 Y. de Nooijer

2 R. de Poorter

8 S. Brebels

10 N. Aelterman

14 R. Van Hauter

7 K. Hebbelinck

22 D. Demuynck

Coach · Gerard de Nooijer

Substitutes

30 · S. Van Damme

3 · J. Pengel

18 · H. Bouihrouchane

16 · M. Steenpoorte

23 · T. Boere

11 · M. Bostdorp

19 · A. Jalloh

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

AFC Amsterdam

Formation not confirmed

1 G. van Zetten

24 I. Lee

40 L. van der Graaf

55 T. Letschert

5 C. Claver

13 T. Hovenkamp

14 M. Klopper

20 M. Elstak

11 R. Fonseca

9 F. van der Linden

18 A. Bensabouh

Coach · Chedric Seedorf

Substitutes

30 · B. Kroll

17 · R. Aharchaoui

3 · G. Markiet

34 · C. Oostwoud

28 · G. de Jager

23 · J. Nsingi

Hoek

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Standaert

4 L. Ketels

21 G. Martens

24 G. Siereveld

5 Y. de Nooijer

2 R. de Poorter

8 S. Brebels

10 N. Aelterman

14 R. Van Hauter

7 K. Hebbelinck

22 D. Demuynck

Coach · Gerard de Nooijer

Substitutes

30 · S. Van Damme

3 · J. Pengel

18 · H. Bouihrouchane

16 · M. Steenpoorte

23 · T. Boere

11 · M. Bostdorp

19 · A. Jalloh

Our number · afc amsterdam winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

40% The market34%

Us40%

~~Market~~34%

We make AFC Amsterdam a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · afc amsterdam win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Amsterdam win	40%	34%	+6
Draw	25%	25%	−1
Hoek win	36%	41%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−5
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	38%	−6
AFC Amsterdam or draw	64%	59%	+5
AFC Amsterdam clean sheet	26%	–	–
Hoek clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.9 8.2 5.5 2.6 1 8.7 11.5 7.9 3.7 2 6.3 8.5 5.8 2.7 3 3.1 4.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Amsterdam down, Hoek across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,685 Tweede Divisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 74.6% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AFC Amsterdam at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Hoek away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for AFC Amsterdam, 1.37 for Hoek. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AFC 1–5 HOE · HOE 2–2 AFC

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie

AFC AMSTERDAM

WLDWLL2–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

HOEK

LLDDLW0–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	8	+16	21
2	Kozakken Boys	8	+11	17
3	De Treffers	8	+11	15
4	Barendrecht	8	+3	14
5	HHC	8	+3	14
6	Ijsselmeervogels	7	+5	13
7	Spakenburg	8	−1	13
8	Sparta Rotterdam II	8	+8	12
9	Katwijk	8	−2	11
10	AFC Amsterdam	8	−2	10
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	8	−7	10
12	Hoek	8	−2	9
13	GVVV Veenendaal	7	−3	9
14	RKAV Volendam	8	−7	9
15	Almere City II	8	−2	7
16	Koninklijke HFC	8	−5	6
17	Kloetinge	8	−10	6
18	ROHDA Raalte	8	−16	1