AFC Amsterdam v Almere City II prediction · Tweede Divisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

AFC Amsterdam 0–1 Almere City II AFC AMSTERDAM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AFC Amsterdam win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.603

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.712

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AFC Amsterdam win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: AFC Amsterdam was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–22–38
1′KICK-OFF AFC Amsterdam v Almere City II
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Almere City II
40′A goal for Almere City II on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–22–64
40′We said AFC Amsterdam at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' AFC Amsterdam 0–1 Almere City II
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' AFC Amsterdam win: 41% at kick-off, 14% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Almere City II win is now our likeliest result at 64% (was AFC Amsterdam win 36%)
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Almere City II
45′HALF-TIME AFC Amsterdam 0–1 Almere City II
46′SECOND HALF AFC Amsterdam 0–1 Almere City II
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Almere City II · On: M. Haven · Off: E. van de Blaak
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' AFC Amsterdam win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
56′🟨 YELLOW · 26' M. Klopper · AFC Amsterdam
57′We said AFC Amsterdam at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Almere City II · On: Y. Boerhout · Off: O. de Nijs
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Almere City II · On: Q. van Beekveld · Off: B. Huisman
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Almere City II · On: L. Opdam · Off: L. Lenssen
71′We said AFC Amsterdam at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' AFC Amsterdam · On: C. Oostwoud · Off: A. Bensabouh
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' AFC Amsterdam · On: F. van der Linden · Off: M. Elstak
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' AFC Amsterdam · On: G. Markiet · Off: T. Letschert
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' AFC Amsterdam win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Almere City II
FTFULL TIME AFC Amsterdam 0–1 Almere City II
FTAFC Amsterdam 0–1 Almere City II · AFC Amsterdam win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with AFC Amsterdam just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: AFC Amsterdam 41%, draw 21%, Almere City II 38%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on AFC Amsterdam v Almere City IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

AFC Amsterdam win41%

Draw21%

Almere City II win38%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:15

RoundMatchday 11

VenueSportpark Goed Genoeg

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AFC Amsterdam

Almere City II

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Tweede Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	−3	13
14	Almere City II	10	0	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · afc amsterdam winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make AFC Amsterdam a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AFC Amsterdam v Almere City II~~1.89 – 1.80

~~Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 13 v 10~~10 v 14

~~The market · AFC Amsterdam win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AFC Amsterdam win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AFC Amsterdam win	41%	44%	−3
Draw	21%	24%	−3
Almere City II win	38%	32%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	71%	65%	+6
Both teams to score	70%	66%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	88%	82%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	50%	45%	+5
AFC Amsterdam or draw	62%	68%	−6
AFC Amsterdam clean sheet	17%	–	–
Almere City II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.4%

0123450 2.6 4.6 4.1 2.5 1 4.9 8.4 7.5 4.5 2.1 2 4.5 7.9 7.0 4.2 3 2.8 5.0 4.4 2.7 4 2.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AFC Amsterdam down, Almere City II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,704 Tweede Divisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Tweede Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.3% of games this season, across 90 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AFC Amsterdam at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Almere City II away: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.89 goals for AFC Amsterdam, 1.80 for Almere City II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~AFC 0–0 ALM · ALM 2–1 AFC · AFC 2–0 ALM · ALM 0–2 AFC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Tweede Divisie this season · since 12 Sept

AFC AMSTERDAM

DWLLWL2–2 · 3–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–4

ALMERE CITY II

LDLWWL0–3 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 4–1 · 4–1 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Quick Boys	10	+22	25
2	De Treffers	10	+16	21
3	Kozakken Boys	10	+13	21
4	Ijsselmeervogels	10	+5	19
5	HHC	10	+4	18
6	Barendrecht	10	+2	17
7	GVVV Veenendaal	10	+2	15
8	RKAV Volendam	10	0	15
9	Spakenburg	10	−3	14
10	AFC Amsterdam	10	−3	13
11	Rijnsburgse Boys	10	−9	13
12	Sparta Rotterdam II	10	+4	12
13	Katwijk	10	−9	11
14	Almere City II	10	0	10
15	Hoek	10	−4	10
16	Koninklijke HFC	10	−6	9
17	Kloetinge	10	−11	7
18	ROHDA Raalte	10	−23	1