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Model 1.2

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VVV Venlo v Vitesse

VVV Venlo
19:00Upcoming
Vitesse

KNVB Beker · WED 28 OCT · Seacon - De Koel

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VVV VenloDrawVitesse
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00
Before kick-off · Match result · VVV Venlo 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

VVV Venlo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: VVV Venlo 45%, draw 23%, Vitesse 32%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on VVV Venlo v VitesseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

VVV Venlo win45%
Draw23%
Vitesse win32%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueSeacon - De Koel

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

VVV Venlo

Vitesse

4Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

Last match: 23 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vvv venlo winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:29 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make VVV Venlo a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · VVV Venlo v Vitesse1.74 – 1.44

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 01:06
Our probability · VVV Venlo win

Published at 43%, 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
VVV Venlo win45%––
Draw23%––
Vitesse win32%––
Over 2.5 goals61%––
Both teams to score62%––
Over 1.5 goals82%––
Over 3.5 goals39%––
VVV Venlo or draw68%––
VVV Venlo clean sheet24%––
Vitesse clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%
0123450 4.0 6.3 4.3 2.1 1 7.6 10.1 7.4 3.6 2 6.3 8.9 6.4 3.1 3 3.7 5.2 3.7 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+VVV Venlo down, Vitesse across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.25
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsVIT 2–2 VVV · VVV 1–2 VIT · VIT 1–4 VVV · VVV 0–1 VIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · KNVB Beker this season

VVV VENLO

No matches in our record yet.

VITESSE

No matches in our record yet.