Roda v De Graafschap prediction · KNVB Beker

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

RodaDrawDe Graafschap

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Roda 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Roda are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Roda 46%, draw 24%, De Graafschap 30%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Roda v De GraafschapBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Roda win46%

Draw24%

De Graafschap win30%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 64

VenueParkstad Limburg Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Roda

De Graafschap

4Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · the Dutch Eerste Divisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · roda winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Roda a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Roda v De Graafschap~~1.64 – 1.28

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Roda win	46%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
De Graafschap win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Roda or draw	70%	–	–
Roda clean sheet	28%	–	–
De Graafschap clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.2 7.3 4.4 1 9.2 10.9 7.2 3.1 2 7.2 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 4.0 5.0 3.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Roda down, De Graafschap across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,032 Eerste Divisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eerste Divisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 66.7% of games this season, across 120 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Roda at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). De Graafschap away: 1.17 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Roda, 1.28 for De Graafschap. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DEG 2–3 ROD · ROD 1–0 DEG · DEG 2–0 ROD · ROD 1–4 DEG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · KNVB Beker this season

RODA

No matches in our record yet.

DE GRAAFSCHAP

No matches in our record yet.

Roda v De Graafschap

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Roda

De Graafschap

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · KNVB Beker this season