Willem II v Cambuur prediction · Eredivisie

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

Willem II 1–6 Cambuur WILLEM II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Willem II win~~40%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.657

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.610

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Willem II win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Willem II v Cambuur
2′Much as we predicted: Willem II was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–34
9′We said Willem II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–20–60
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Willem II 0–1 Cambuur
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Willem II win: 40% at kick-off, 20% now
9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Cambuur win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Willem II win 40%)
10′9′: Nicolas Binder on the scoresheet for Cambuur, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 19–20–60
11′We said Willem II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–20–61
13′We said Willem II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 0–2 · 7–12–81
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Willem II 0–2 Cambuur
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Willem II win: 40% at kick-off, 7% now
15′Cambuur ahead on 13′ through Ilyes Hamache. 0–2. 0–2 · 7–12–82
19′We said Willem II at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 0–3 · 2–4–94
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Willem II 0–3 Cambuur
21′Ismaël Baouf scores for Cambuur on 18′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 2–4–94
45′HALF-TIME Willem II 0–3 Cambuur
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Jaden Slory · Willem II
45′SECOND HALF Willem II 0–3 Cambuur
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Willem II · On: Anass Zarrouk · Off: Tonny Vilhena
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Willem II · On: Thomas Verheydt · Off: Maxim Dekker
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Willem II · On: Armin Culum · Off: Vito van Crooy
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Willem II win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Hidde ter Avest · Willem II
58′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–4 · 0–0–100
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Willem II 0–4 Cambuur
59′58′: Nicolas Binder on the scoresheet for Cambuur, making it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
61′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 0–5 · 0–0–100
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Willem II 0–5 Cambuur
64′Cambuur ahead on 62′ through Rafik El Arguioui. 0–5. 0–5 · 0–0–100
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Cambuur · On: Jorn Berkhout · Off: Billy van Duijl
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cambuur · On: Iwan Henstra · Off: Mathieu Maertens
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Cambuur · On: Lucas Jetten · Off: Morgan Costarelli
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Willem II · On: Mats Lemmens · Off: Jaden Slory
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Cambuur · On: Wiebe Kooistra · Off: Rik Mulders
78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Cambuur · On: Skye Vink · Off: Nicolas Binder
82′6 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–5 · 0–0–100
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Willem II 1–5 Cambuur
83′Anass Zarrouk scores for Willem II on 82′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
88′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 1–6 · 0–0–100
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Willem II 1–6 Cambuur
90′89′: Jason Ceka on the scoresheet for Cambuur, making it 1–6. 1–6 · 0–0–100
92′Full time, 1–6. We called Willem II at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–6 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Willem II 1–6 Cambuur
FTWillem II 1–6 Cambuur · Willem II win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Willem II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Willem II 40%, draw 25%, Cambuur 34%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Willem II v CambuurBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Willem II win40%

Draw25%

Cambuur win34%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 10

VenueKoning Willem II Stadion

RefereeDennis Higler

Line-ups

Willem II

4-2-3-1

Cambuur

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Willem II

Cambuur

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 18 Oct · Eredivisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Cambuur	9	−8	9
18	Willem II	9	−17	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Willem II

4-2-3-1

1 T. Didillon

5 H. ter Avest

3 F. Stam

23 M. Dekker

24 N. Tjoe-A-On

6 C. Twigt

52 T. Vilhena

7 J. Slory

19 Uriel van Aalst

32 V. van Crooij

9 D. Haen

Coach · A. Koster

Substitutes

18 · Anass Zarrouk

28 · T. Verheydt

10 · J. Schuurman

17 · O. Martin

15 · A. Et-Taïbi

26 · M. Delanghe

11 · A. Culum

2 · A. Ciranni

8 · K. Boogaard

Cambuur

4-2-3-1

1 T. Jansen

16 R. Mulders

4 I. Baouf

14 B. van Duijl

28 M. Costarelli

33 M. Maertens

8 N. Souren

30 J. Çeka

10 R. El Arguioui

11 I. Hamache

13 N. Binder

Coach · J. Plat

Substitutes

9 · S. Vink

18 · Wiebe van der Heide

22 · L. Plogmann

15 · F. Kvam

24 · M. Kalisvaart

23 · L. Jetten

7 · S. Bouhoudane

3 · J. Berkhout

17 · Ethan Apkakou

Our number · willem ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Willem II a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Willem II v Cambuur~~1.63 – 1.48

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 9~~18 v 14

~~The market · Willem II win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Willem II win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Willem II win	40%	38%	+2
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Cambuur win	34%	37%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	60%	61%	−1
Both teams to score	62%	64%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	38%	41%	−3
Willem II or draw	66%	63%	+3
Willem II clean sheet	23%	–	–
Cambuur clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.5 5.9 5.0 2.5 1 6.5 11.4 7.8 3.9 2 5.9 8.5 6.3 3.1 3 3.2 4.6 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Willem II down, Cambuur across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,681 Eredivisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.6% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Willem II at home: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cambuur away: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Willem II, 1.48 for Cambuur. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~WIL 0–1 CAM · CAM 2–2 WIL · WIL 1–1 CAM · CAM 1–0 WIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 30 Aug

WILLEM II

LDLLLL0–3 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–3

CAMBUUR

LDWDWD1–4 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Groningen	9	+3	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
9	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
10	Excelsior	9	−2	11
11	Utrecht	9	−10	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
14	Cambuur	9	−8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	−12	7
16	ADO Den Haag	9	−9	6
17	Telstar	10	−9	6
18	Willem II	9	−17	2