Utrecht v Willem II prediction · Eredivisie

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:05

Utrecht 3–1 Willem II UTRECHT WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Utrecht win~~64%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.191

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.210

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Utrecht win at 64%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Utrecht 64% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–19–15
1′KICK-OFF Utrecht v Willem II
2′Little has changed for our model: Utrecht 64% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 65–19–16
44′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Yoann Cathline · Utrecht
45′SECOND HALF Utrecht 0–0 Willem II
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Utrecht 1–0 Willem II
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Utrecht 1–0 Willem II · Yoann Cathline
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Utrecht 1–1 Willem II · Yoann Cathline
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Utrecht 1–1 Willem II · Jaden Slory
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Utrecht · On: Per Kloosterboer · Off: Arthur Zagre Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Utrecht · On: Ángel Alarcón · Off: Niklas Vesterlund Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Willem II · On: Eser Gürbüz · Off: Jaden Slory Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Willem II · On: Anass Zarrouk · Off: Tonny Vilhena Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Utrecht 2–1 Willem II · Jaden Slory
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Utrecht 2–1 Willem II · Yoann Cathline
79′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Nikolas Panagiotou · Utrecht
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Willem II · On: Thomas Verheydt · Off: Vito van Crooy Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Willem II · On: Alessandro Ciranni · Off: Nathan Tjoe-A-On Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Utrecht · On: Adrian Blake · Off: Marius Broholm Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Utrecht · On: Davy Van Den Berg · Off: Oualid Agougil Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Willem II · On: Chido Obi · Off: Uriël van Aalst Corrected
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Utrecht 3–1 Willem II · Yoann Cathline
91′⚽ GOAL · 92' Utrecht 3–1 Willem II · Ángel Alarcón
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Utrecht · On: S. van Duijn · Off: Yoann Cathline Corrected
FTFULL TIME Utrecht 3–1 Willem II
FTUtrecht 3–1 Willem II · Utrecht win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Utrecht win64%

Draw21%

Willem II win15%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 11:15

VenueStadion Galgenwaard

RefereeJannick van der Laan

Line-ups

Utrecht

3-4-3

Willem II

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Utrecht

Willem II

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Utrecht	7	−13	5
18	Willem II	7	−14	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Utrecht

3-4-3

1 V. Barkas

2 S. Horemans

3 M. Didden

5 N. Panagiotou

23 N. Vesterlund

8 J. van Overeem

38 O. Agougil

92 A. Zagre

80 M. Broholm

20 D. de Wit

10 Y. Cathline

Coach · Anthony Correia

Substitutes

22 · S. Padt

33 · K. Gadellaa

18 · J. Medic

21 · N. Ogidi Nwankwo

6 · G. Offerhaus

32 · P. Kloosterboer

34 · D. van den Berg

39 · N. Amrabat

17 · S. van Duijn

15 · A. Blake

11 · A. Alarcon

Willem II

4-2-3-1

26 M. Delanghe

5 H. ter Avest

3 F. Stam

23 M. Dekker

24 N. Tjoe a On

6 C. Twigt

52 T. Vilhena

7 J. Slory

19 U. van Aalst

32 V. van Crooij

9 D. Haen

Coach · John Stegeman

Substitutes

21 · W. van der Steen

31 · K. de Leeuw

2 · A. Ciranni

15 · A. Et Taibi

83 · M. Lemmens

14 · J. Mathijsen

18 · A. Zarrouk

10 · J. Schuurman

50 · E. Gurbuz

22 · P. van Loon

28 · T. Verheydt

17 · C. Obi

Our number · utrecht winPublished 11 Oct 11:02

64% The market63%

Us64%

~~Market~~63%

We make Utrecht a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.2–1.0.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Utrecht win	64%	63%	+2
Draw	21%	21%	0
Willem II win	15%	17%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	62%	64%	−2
Both teams to score	56%	60%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	40%	44%	−3
Utrecht or draw	85%	83%	+2
Utrecht clean sheet	38%	–	–
Willem II clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.9%

0123450 4.9 3.3 2.0 1 8.2 9.5 4.4 2 9.9 9.6 4.8 3 7.3 7.1 3.5 4 4.2 4.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Utrecht down, Willem II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,667 Eredivisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 4.75 goals a meeting; 4 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Utrecht at home: 2.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Willem II away: 1.17 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.24 goals for Utrecht, 0.99 for Willem II. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.75

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~WIL 2–3 UTR · UTR 3–2 WIL · WIL 3–0 UTR · UTR 5–1 WIL

Form · last six in Eredivisie

UTRECHT

LDLDWL1–4 · 3–3 · 1–6 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–5

WILLEM II

LDLDLL1–4 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	8	+20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	+16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	+10	19
4	Twente	8	+8	17
5	Ajax	8	+12	15
6	Fortuna Sittard	8	−1	14
7	Excelsior	7	+6	11
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	+2	11
9	Groningen	7	+2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	−1	9
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	−7	6
13	Telstar	7	−7	5
14	Cambuur	7	−9	5
15	Utrecht	7	−13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	−14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	−10	2
18	Willem II	7	−14	2