Twente v Utrecht

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Twente win at 54%.
2. 0′KICK-OFF Twente v Utrecht
3. 2′Much as we predicted: Twente was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–24–22
4. 28′28′: Daouda Weidmann on the scoresheet for Twente. 0–0 · 48–29–22
5. 29′We published Twente at 54%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
6. 29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Twente 1–0 Utrecht · Daouda Weidmann (assist Aske Emil Berg Adelgaard)
7. 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Twente win: 54% at kick-off, 78% now
8. 30′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 78–15–7
9. 45′HALF-TIME Twente 1–0 Utrecht
10. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Twente · On: Marko Pjaca · Off: Daan Rots
11. 46′SECOND HALF Twente 1–0 Utrecht
12. 48′Ángel Alarcón scores for Utrecht on 47′. 1–0 · 79–16–5
13. 48′We said Twente at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 42–37–21
14. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Twente 1–1 Utrecht · Ángel Alarcón (assist Arthur Zagre)
15. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Twente win: 54% at kick-off, 42% now
16. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Twente win: 54% at kick-off, 41% now
17. 53′We said Twente at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–40–20
18. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Twente win 37%)
19. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Siebe Horemans · Utrecht
20. 62′We said Twente at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–47–18
21. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Twente win: 54% at kick-off, 34% now
22. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Twente · On: Thomas Van den Belt · Off: Robin Propper
23. 63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Twente · On: Younes Taha El Idrissi · Off: Kristian Nokkvi Hlynsson
24. 64′63′: Ángel Alarcón on the scoresheet for Utrecht. 1–1 · 33–49–18
25. 64′We said Twente at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 8%. 1–2 · 8–25–67
26. 64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Twente 1–2 Utrecht · Ángel Alarcón (assist Arthur Zagre)
27. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Twente win: 54% at kick-off, 8% now
28. 64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Utrecht win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 25%)
29. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Utrecht · On: Nordin Amrabat · Off: Oualid Agougil Corrected
30. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Utrecht · On: Davy Van Den Berg · Off: Siebe Horemans Corrected
31. 71′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Davy Van Den Berg · Utrecht
32. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Twente win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
33. 74′We said Twente at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
34. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Utrecht · On: Adrian Blake · Off: Yoann Cathline Corrected
35. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Utrecht · On: S. van Duijn · Off: Ángel Alarcón Corrected
36. 78′19 shots for Twente, 13 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 2–17–80
37. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Twente · On: Lucas hesselink of vennegoor · Off: Aske Emil Berg Adelgaard
38. 86′Twente have had 20 attempts to 14 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–9–91
39. 95′Twente have had 24 attempts to 16 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 0–2–98
40. FTFULL TIME Twente 1–2 Utrecht
41. FTTwente 1–2 Utrecht · Twente win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.