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Telstar v Feyenoord

Telstar
3–4Full time
Feyenoord

Eredivisie · SAT 17 OCT · Sportpark Schoonenberg

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01
Telstar 3–4 Feyenoord FEYENOORD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Feyenoord win59%
The market said71%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.257
The market’s Brier score0.127

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Feyenoord win at 59%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Feyenoord was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 19–22–58
  3. 1′Feyenoord find the net on 1′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–12–81
  4. 1′KICK-OFF Telstar v Feyenoord
  5. 1′⚽ GOAL · 1' Telstar 0–1 Feyenoord
  6. 1′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 1' Feyenoord win: 59% at kick-off, 81% now
  7. 2′We published Feyenoord at 59%. Our model now makes it 81%. 0–1 · 7–12–81
  8. 21′We published Feyenoord at 59%. Our model now makes it 94%. 0–2 · 2–5–94
  9. 21′Nacho Ferri scores for Feyenoord on 21′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 2–5–94
  10. 21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Telstar 0–2 Feyenoord
  11. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Feyenoord win: 59% at kick-off, 94% now
  12. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Telstar 1–2 Feyenoord
  13. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Feyenoord win: 59% at kick-off, 80% now
  14. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Gerald Alders · Telstar
  15. 31′30′: Tyrone Owusu on the scoresheet for Telstar, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 6–14–80
  16. 32′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
  17. 32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Telstar 1–3 Feyenoord
  18. 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Feyenoord win: 59% at kick-off, 94% now
  19. 33′Feyenoord ahead on 32′ through Sem Steijn. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–94
  20. 36′We published Feyenoord at 59%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  21. 37′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 5–14–80
  22. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Telstar 2–3 Feyenoord
  23. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Feyenoord win: 59% at kick-off, 80% now
  24. 39′Patrick Brouwer scores for Telstar on 37′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 5–14–80
  25. 42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Charles Vanhoutte · Feyenoord
  26. 45′SECOND HALF Telstar 2–3 Feyenoord
  27. 46′HALF-TIME Telstar 2–3 Feyenoord
  28. 57′6 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–3–97
  29. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Telstar 2–4 Feyenoord
  30. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Feyenoord win: 59% at kick-off, 97% now
  31. 63′57′: Sem Steijn on the scoresheet for Feyenoord, making it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–97
  32. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Telstar · On: Jelani Seedorf · Off: Nökkvi Þeyr Þórisson
  33. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Feyenoord · On: Oussama Targhalline · Off: Charles Vanhoutte
  34. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Feyenoord · On: Javi López · Off: Thijs Kraaijeveld
  35. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Gjivai Zechiel · Feyenoord
  36. 69′We published Feyenoord at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 3–4 · 2–13–85
  37. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Telstar 3–4 Feyenoord
  38. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 69' Feyenoord win: 59% at kick-off, 85% now
  39. 71′Telstar pull one back on 69′ through Noach Shenkman. 3–4. 3–4 · 2–12–86
  40. 72′That is 7, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–4 · 1–12–86
  41. 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Nacho Ferri · Feyenoord
  42. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Feyenoord win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
  43. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Feyenoord · On: Tobias van den Elshout · Off: Sem Steijn
  44. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Feyenoord · On: Luciano Valente · Off: Gaoussou Kyassou Diarra
  45. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Telstar · On: Emirhan Demircan · Off: Ar'jany Martha
  46. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Telstar · On: Jeff Hardeveld · Off: Noach Shenkman
  47. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Telstar · On: Harrie Kuster · Off: Gerald Alders
  48. 90′Full time, 3–4. We called Feyenoord at 59% — that one lands. 3–4 · 0–0–100
  49. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Feyenoord win: 59% at kick-off, 99% now
  50. 98′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Javi López · Feyenoord
  51. FTFULL TIME Telstar 3–4 Feyenoord
  52. FTTelstar 3–4 Feyenoord · Feyenoord win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Feyenoord are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Telstar 19%, draw 22%, Feyenoord 59%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Telstar v FeyenoordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Telstar win19%
Draw22%
Feyenoord win59%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueSportpark Schoonenberg

RefereeJeroen Manschot

Line-ups

Telstar

4-3-3

Feyenoord

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Telstar

Feyenoord

6Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 14 Oct · UEFA Champions League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Feyenoord8+2020
15Telstar8−76

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Telstar

4-3-3

1 R. Koeman

3 Gerald Alders

16 S. Valk

4 A. Soualhia

43 M. Peersman

23 N. Shenkman

10 T. Owusu

17 N. Rossen

42 A. Martha

11 N. Þórisson

27 P. Brouwer

Coach · H. Brugge

Substitutes

19 · F. Rust

20 · D. Reiziger

21 · F. Turay

6 · Isaiah Ahmed

5 · P. Aning

18 · G. Caschili

8 · E. Demircan

2 · J. Hardeveld

14 · H. Kuster

13 · Finn Mulder

28 · R. Oudsten

9 · Jelani Seedorf

Feyenoord

4-2-3-1

1 T. Ernst

26 G. Read

4 T. Watanabe

24 T. Kraaijeveld

35 Mika Màrmol

8 G. Zechiël

34 C. Vanhoutte

23 A. Hadj-Moussa

14 S. Steijn

27 G. Diarra

19 Nacho Ferri

Coach · G. van Bronckhorst

Substitutes

6 · J. St. Juste

32 · T. Wessels

22 · T. van den Elshout

10 · L. Valente

28 · O. Targhalline

57 · J. Schaken

16 · Javi López

33 · F. Kastenmeier

50 · Theodoros Delianidis

20 · M. Deijl

39 · L. Bossin

11 · Gonçalo Borges

Our number · feyenoord winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off
59% The market71%
Us59%
Market71%

We make Feyenoord a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Telstar v Feyenoord1.10 – 2.07
Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 23 AugW0 D3 L3 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 6 v 2015 v 1
The market · Feyenoord win71% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 11 OCT 04:0417 OCT 18:27
Our probability · Feyenoord win The market, margin stripped

Published at 58%, 59% now. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Telstar win19%11%+8
Draw22%17%+5
Feyenoord win59%71%−12
Over 2.5 goals61%67%−6
Both teams to score58%57%+1
Over 1.5 goals83%85%−2
Over 3.5 goals39%47%−8
Telstar or draw41%29%+12
Telstar clean sheet13%––
Feyenoord clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%
0123450 5.1 8.0 9.0 6.2 3.3 1 4.0 10.2 9.7 6.6 3.5 2 2.6 5.2 5.3 3.6 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Telstar down, Feyenoord across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 2
Both scored2 of 2
Last meetingsFEY 2–1 TEL · TEL 1–2 FEY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 23 Aug

TELSTAR

LDLDLD0–4 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

FEYENOORD

WDWWWW5–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 7–0 · 5–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Feyenoord8+2020
2PSV Eindhoven8+1619
3AZ Alkmaar8+1019
4Twente8+817
5Ajax8+1215
6Groningen8+614
7Fortuna Sittard8−114
8Heerenveen9+412
9GO Ahead Eagles8+211
10Excelsior9−211
11NEC Nijmegen8−19
12Cambuur8−88
13Utrecht8−118
14Sparta Rotterdam8−76
15Telstar8−76
16PEC Zwolle8−154
17ADO Den Haag8−103
18Willem II8−162

The competition's standings before kick-off.