Add to your Home ScreenGet the appFree · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.1

Home › Football › Eredivisie › Telstar v ADO Den Haag

Back
Netherlands flag

Telstar v ADO Den Haag

Telstar
2–2Full time
ADO Den Haag

Eredivisie · SUN 11 OCT · Sportpark Schoonenberg

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04
Telstar 2–2 ADO Den Haag TELSTAR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Telstar win57%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.957
The market’s Brier score0.829

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 41 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Telstar win at 57%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Telstar was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–22–20
  3. 4′Much as we predicted: Telstar was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–22–20
  4. 13′A red card for ADO Den Haag on 13′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 56–24–21
  5. 15′Telstar ahead on 14′ through Tyrone Owusu. 1–0. 1–0 · 79–14–7
  6. 17′Yannick Fereira Eduardo scores for ADO Den Haag on 16′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 55–25–21
  7. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 55% now
  8. 19′Yannick Fereira Eduardo scores for ADO Den Haag on 16′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 54–25–21
  9. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 79% now
  10. 19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 55% now
  11. 21′A red card for ADO Den Haag on 13′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 54–26–21
  12. 24′25′ and it is 1–2: Evan Rottier on the scoresheet for ADO Den Haag. 1–2 · 27–26–47
  13. 24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Telstar 1–2 ADO Den Haag · Yannick Fereira Eduardo
  14. 24′⚽ GOAL · 25' Telstar 1–2 ADO Den Haag · Evan Rottier
  15. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  16. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' ADO Den Haag win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Telstar win 27%)
  17. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
  18. 24′THE CALL SWINGS · 24' Telstar win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was ADO Den Haag win 21%)
  19. 25′25′ and it is 1–2: Evan Rottier on the scoresheet for ADO Den Haag. 1–2 · 26–26–47
  20. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 53% now
  21. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' Telstar win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was ADO Den Haag win 21%)
  22. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
  23. 25′THE CALL SWINGS · 25' ADO Den Haag win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Telstar win 27%)
  24. 27′We said Telstar at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–2 · 26–26–48
  25. 30′We said Telstar at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–27–49
  26. 31′We said Telstar at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–2 · 24–27–49
  27. 37′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 49–31–20
  28. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Telstar 2–2 ADO Den Haag · Evan Rottier
  29. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 49% now
  30. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Telstar win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was ADO Den Haag win 20%)
  31. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 22% now
  32. 37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' ADO Den Haag win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Telstar win 22%)
  33. 37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Telstar 2–2 ADO Den Haag · Tyrone Owusu
  34. 38′Telstar ahead on 37′ through Tyrone Owusu. 2–2. 2–2 · 48–31–20
  35. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 49% now
  36. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Telstar win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was ADO Den Haag win 20%)
  37. 39′Telstar ahead on 37′ through Tyrone Owusu. 2–2. 2–2 · 48–32–20
  38. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Alejandro Pozo · ADO Den Haag
  39. 40′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 48–32–20
  40. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
  41. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 48% now
  42. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 48% now
  43. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
  44. 45′Telstar have had 8.0 attempts to 2.0 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 46–35–20
  45. 45′SECOND HALF Telstar 2–2 ADO Den Haag
  46. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ADO Den Haag · On: Jan Zamburek · Off: Matěj Šín
  47. 45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' ADO Den Haag · On: Othniël Raterink · Off: Alejandro Pozo
  48. 46′We said Telstar at 57%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 45%. 2–2 · 45–35–20
  49. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 46% now
  50. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 46% now
  51. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Telstar win: 57% at kick-off, 46% now
  52. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Telstar · On: Ar'jany Martha · Off: Noach Shenkman
  53. 57′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Telstar · On: Nökkvi Þeyr Þórisson · Off: Rui Mendes
  54. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' ADO Den Haag · On: Sekou Sylla · Off: Jalen Hawkins
  55. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' ADO Den Haag · On: Donat Barany · Off: Yannick Fereira Eduardo
  56. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Telstar · On: Emirhan Demircan · Off: Patrick Brouwer
  57. 78′SUBSTITUTION · 79' ADO Den Haag · On: Daryl van Mieghem · Off: Evan Rottier
  58. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Abdelnour Soualhia · Telstar
  59. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Telstar · On: Prince Aning · Off: Jelani Seedorf
  60. FTFULL TIME Telstar 2–2 ADO Den Haag
  61. FTTelstar 2–2 ADO Den Haag · Telstar win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get the 30-day pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Telstar win57%
Draw23%
ADO Den Haag win20%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueSportpark Schoonenberg

RefereeErwin Blank

Line-ups

Telstar

4-3-3

ADO Den Haag

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Telstar

ADO Den Haag

21Days since last match22
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Telstar7−75
17ADO Den Haag7−102

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Telstar

4-3-3

1 R. Koeman Jr

3 G. Alders

16 S. Valk

4 A. Soualhia

43 M. Peersman

23 N. Shenkman

10 T. Owusu

17 N. Rossen

7 R. Mendes

9 J. Seedorf

27 P. Brouwer

Coach · Henk Brugge

Substitutes

20 · D. Reiziger

13 · F. Mulder

18 · G. Caschili

5 · P. Aning

15 · N. Nwankwo

42 · A. Martha

6 · I. Ahmed

2 · J. Hardeveld

28 · R. Oudsten

14 · H. Kuster

11 · N. Thorisson

8 · E. Demircan

ADO Den Haag

4-4-2

1 K. Nikiema

5 J. Jensen-Abbew

3 P. Mulder

4 M. Waem

15 M. Hokke

24 A. Pozo

25 J. Kilo

33 M. Sin

17 J. Hawkins

46 Y. Eduardo

11 E. Rottier

Coach · Robin Peter

Substitutes

23 · N. Thiede

18 · S. Sylla

22 · L. Wilhelm

2 · O. Raterink

10 · I. de Ruijter

8 · J. Zamburek

16 · F. de Bruin

14 · M. Jimenez

7 · D. van Mieghem

27 · N. Thomas

77 · D. Barany

9 · J. Bal

Our number · telstar winPublished 11 Oct 13:43
57% The market44%
Us57%
Market44%

We make Telstar a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 06:1911 OCT 13:20
Our probability · telstar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Telstar win57%44%+12
Draw23%26%−3
ADO Den Haag win20%29%−9
Over 2.5 goals60%59%0
Both teams to score58%62%−5
Over 1.5 goals82%81%+1
Over 3.5 goals38%39%−1
Telstar or draw80%71%+9
Telstar clean sheet34%––
ADO Den Haag clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.6%
0123450 5.6 4.3 2.9 1 8.2 10.6 5.4 2.1 2 8.8 9.5 5.2 3 5.9 6.3 3.5 4 3.1 3.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Telstar down, ADO Den Haag across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting1.50
Over 2.50 of 2
Both scored0 of 2
Last meetingsADO 0–1 TEL · TEL 2–0 ADO

Form · last six in Eredivisie

TELSTAR

LLDLDL1–3 · 0–4 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1

ADO DEN HAAG

LLDLLD1–4 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Feyenoord8+2020
2PSV Eindhoven8+1619
3AZ Alkmaar8+1019
4Twente8+817
5Ajax8+1215
6Fortuna Sittard8−114
7Excelsior7+611
8GO Ahead Eagles8+211
9Groningen7+211
10Heerenveen809
11NEC Nijmegen8−19
12Sparta Rotterdam8−76
13Telstar7−75
14Cambuur7−95
15Utrecht7−135
16PEC Zwolle7−144
17ADO Den Haag7−102
18Willem II7−142

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.