Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II prediction · Eredivisie

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31

Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II SPARTA ROTTERDAM WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sparta Rotterdam win~~55%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.303

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.245

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sparta Rotterdam win at 55%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Sparta Rotterdam 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–24–21
2′KICK-OFF Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II
16′We said Sparta Rotterdam at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–25–48
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Sparta Rotterdam 0–1 Willem II
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Sparta Rotterdam win: 55% at kick-off, 27% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Willem II win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Sparta Rotterdam win 27%)
18′A goal for Willem II on 17′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 27–25–48
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Sparta Rotterdam win: 55% at kick-off, 25% now
25′We said Sparta Rotterdam at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–26–50
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 22–26–51
38′We said Sparta Rotterdam at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–27–54
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 Willem II
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Sparta Rotterdam win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Sparta Rotterdam win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Willem II win 21%)
41′39′: Jens Toornstra on the scoresheet for Sparta Rotterdam, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 45–35–20
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Finn Stam · Willem II
45′We said Sparta Rotterdam at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 43–36–20
45′HALF-TIME Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 Willem II
46′SECOND HALF Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 Willem II
49′We said Sparta Rotterdam at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–1 · 80–15–4
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Sparta Rotterdam 2–1 Willem II
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Sparta Rotterdam win: 55% at kick-off, 80% now
50′3 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 80–15–4
51′Sparta Rotterdam ahead on 50′ through Lushendry Martes. 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–4
85′68′: Uriël van Aalst on the scoresheet for Willem II, making it 3–2. 3–2 · 94–5–0
85′⚽ GOAL · 57' Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II · Milan Zonneveld (assist Jens Toornstra)
85′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Rogier Meijer · Sparta Rotterdam
85′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Willem II · On: Thomas Verheydt · Off: Anass Zarrouk
85′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Willem II · On: Mats Lemmens · Off: Tonny Vilhena
85′⚽ GOAL · 68' Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II · Uriël van Aalst (assist Vito van Crooy)
85′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Vito van Crooy · Willem II
85′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Lushendry Martes · Sparta Rotterdam
85′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Sparta Rotterdam · On: Alwande Benedict Roaldsøy · Off: Jens Toornstra
85′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Thomas Verheydt · Willem II
85′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Alwande Benedict Roaldsøy · Sparta Rotterdam
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Willem II · On: Jari Schuurman · Off: Uriël van Aalst
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Willem II · On: Chido Obi · Off: Jaden Slory
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sparta Rotterdam · On: Teo Quintero León · Off: Cedric Hatenboer
85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Sparta Rotterdam · On: Mitchell Van Bergen · Off: Robin van Cruijsen
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Sparta Rotterdam win: 55% at kick-off, 94% now
88′We said Sparta Rotterdam at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 3–2 · 96–4–0
88′5 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 96–4–0
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Sparta Rotterdam win: 55% at kick-off, 96% now
88′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Milan Zonneveld · Sparta Rotterdam
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Teo Quintero León · Sparta Rotterdam
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Willem II · On: Eser Gürbüz · Off: Maxim Dekker
91′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Bas Kuipers · Sparta Rotterdam
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Chido Obi · Willem II
FTFULL TIME Sparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II
FTSparta Rotterdam 3–2 Willem II · Sparta Rotterdam win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sparta Rotterdam 55%, draw 24%, Willem II 21%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Sparta Rotterdam v Willem IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam win55%

Draw24%

Willem II win21%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueSparta Stadium Het Kasteel

RefereeSerdar Gozubuyuk

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam

5-4-1

Willem II

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sparta Rotterdam

Willem II

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 11 Oct · Eredivisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	−7	6
18	Willem II	8	−16	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sparta Rotterdam

5-4-1

1 M. Brouwer

2 L. Martes

3 M. Young

6 N. Verschuren

4 B. Martins Indi

5 B. Kuipers

7 Robin van Cruijsen

8 J. Toornstra

10 Cedric Hatenboer

11 I. Babadi

9 M. Zonneveld

Coach · R. Meijer

Substitutes

16 · J. Baas

20 · F. Bednarek

22 · Joel Ideho

19 · Andrej Kostić

30 · P. Kuiper

14 · Teo Quintero

12 · B. Reith

18 · A. Roaldsøy

21 · C. Terho

17 · M. van Bergen

15 · G. Vianello

Willem II

4-2-3-1

26 M. Delanghe

5 H. ter Avest

3 F. Stam

23 M. Dekker

24 N. Tjoe-A-On

18 Anass Zarrouk

52 T. Vilhena

7 J. Slory

19 Uriel van Aalst

32 V. van Crooij

9 D. Haen

Coach · J. Stegeman

Substitutes

2 · A. Ciranni

28 · T. Verheydt

22 · Per van Loon

10 · J. Schuurman

17 · O. Martin

14 · Jens Mathijsen

83 · M. Lemmens

50 · E. Gürbüz

15 · A. Et-Taïbi

31 · K. de Leeuw

8 · K. Boogaard

41 · Tygo Kotte

44 · L. Maal

Our number · sparta rotterdam winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

55% The market60%

Us55%

~~Market~~60%

We make Sparta Rotterdam a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II~~1.87 – 1.07

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug~~W0 D3 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~14 v 18

~~The market · Sparta Rotterdam win~~60% · ours 55%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sparta Rotterdam win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sparta Rotterdam win	55%	60%	−5
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Willem II win	21%	19%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	56%	64%	−8
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	43%	−9
Sparta Rotterdam or draw	79%	81%	−2
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	35%	–	–
Willem II clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 6.3 4.9 3.1 1 9.2 11.3 5.6 2.0 2 9.2 9.7 5.2 3 5.8 6.0 3.2 4 2.7 2.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Rotterdam down, Willem II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,672 Eredivisie matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.6% of games this season, across 73 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 4 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Willem II away: 1.17 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.07 for Willem II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~WIL 1–5 SPA · SPA 4–0 WIL · WIL 1–2 SPA · SPA 1–0 WIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug

SPARTA ROTTERDAM

DLDLLD3–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 3–3

WILLEM II

DLDLLL2–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	8	+20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	+16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	+10	19
4	Twente	8	+8	17
5	Ajax	8	+12	15
6	Groningen	8	+6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	−1	14
8	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	8	+2	11
10	Excelsior	9	−2	11
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	−1	9
12	Cambuur	8	−8	8
13	Utrecht	8	−11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	−7	6
15	Telstar	8	−7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	−15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	−10	3
18	Willem II	8	−16	2