Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax prediction · Eredivisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sparta RotterdamDrawAjax

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Ajax 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ajax are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sparta Rotterdam 24%, draw 24%, Ajax 52%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Sparta Rotterdam v AjaxBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam win24%

Draw24%

Ajax win52%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:45

RoundMatchday 10

VenueSparta Stadium Het Kasteel

RefereeDanny Makkelie

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sparta Rotterdam

Ajax

8Days since last match3

Last match: 17 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Sarri: ‘Atalanta more positive than negative, unexpected defeat to Ajax’Football Italia · 22 Oct 22:33 · Atalanta, Ajax UECL | Ajax 2-0 Atalanta: Dea undone by two late goalsFootball Italia · 22 Oct 21:55 · Ajax, Atalanta

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · ajax winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market65%

Us52%

~~Market~~65%

We make Ajax a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax~~1.22 – 1.89

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 9 v 18~~13 v 4

~~The market · Ajax win~~65% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Ajax win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sparta Rotterdam win	24%	16%	+8
Draw	24%	19%	+5
Ajax win	52%	65%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%	−10
Both teams to score	60%	63%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	86%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	38%	50%	−12
Sparta Rotterdam or draw	48%	35%	+13
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	15%	–	–
Ajax clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.4 7.7 8.0 5.0 2.4 1 4.7 11.0 9.5 6.0 2.9 2 3.4 6.2 5.8 3.6 3 2.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sparta Rotterdam down, Ajax across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,681 Eredivisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.6% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sparta Rotterdam at home: 1.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Ajax away: 3.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Sparta Rotterdam, 1.89 for Ajax. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AJA 4–0 SPA · SPA 3–3 AJA · AJA 1–1 SPA · SPA 0–2 AJA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 29 Aug

SPARTA ROTTERDAM

LDLLDW1–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–4 · 3–3 · 3–2

AJAX

LWWDDW1–3 · 5–1 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 5–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Groningen	9	+3	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
9	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
10	Utrecht	10	−10	12
11	Excelsior	9	−2	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
14	Cambuur	9	−8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	−12	8
16	ADO Den Haag	9	−9	6
17	Telstar	10	−9	6
18	Willem II	9	−17	2