PSV Eindhoven v Willem II prediction · Eredivisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PSV EindhovenDrawWillem II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:45

Before kick-off · Match result · PSV Eindhoven 89%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PSV Eindhoven are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PSV Eindhoven 89%, draw 7%, Willem II 4%. Over 2.5 goals 86%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on PSV Eindhoven v Willem IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

PSV Eindhoven win89%

Draw7%

Willem II win4%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePhilips Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PSV Eindhoven

Willem II

11Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 24 Oct · Eredivisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
18	Willem II	10	−22	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · psv eindhoven winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · updated 25 Oct 04:13 · locked at kick-off

89% The market89%

Us89%

~~Market~~89%

We make PSV Eindhoven an 89% chance to win. The market has them at 89%. We are level with the market. The model expects 4.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PSV Eindhoven v Willem II~~4.15 – 0.85

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 19 v 2~~3 v 18

~~The market · PSV Eindhoven win~~89% · ours 89%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · PSV Eindhoven win The market, margin stripped

Published at 90%, 89% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 89% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PSV Eindhoven win	89%	89%	0
Draw	7%	7%	0
Willem II win	4%	4%	0
Over 2.5 goals	86%	83%	+3
Both teams to score	56%	50%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	96%	91%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	72%	67%	+5
PSV Eindhoven or draw	96%	96%	0
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet	43%	–	–
Willem II clean sheet	2%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 8.0%

0123450 1 2.9 2.8 2 6.0 5.1 2.2 3 7.9 6.7 2.9 4 8.0 6.7 2.8 5 6.6 5.5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+PSV Eindhoven down, Willem II across0–5 goals a side shown (75.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,684 Eredivisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.3% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PSV Eindhoven at home: 4.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Willem II away: 1.33 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

4.15 goals for PSV Eindhoven, 0.85 for Willem II. Most likely score 4–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~PSV 1–1 WIL · WIL 0–2 PSV · PSV 4–2 WIL · WIL 2–1 PSV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 30 Aug

PSV EINDHOVEN

WWWLWL6–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–2

WILLEM II

DLLLLL1–1 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 2–3 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	+5	15
8	Groningen	9	+3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	−3	12
11	Utrecht	10	−10	12
12	Excelsior	9	−2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	−12	8
16	Telstar	10	−9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	−10	6
18	Willem II	10	−22	2