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PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen

PSV Eindhoven

2–0Full time

Heerenveen

Eredivisie · FRI 9 OCT · Philips Stadion

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen PSV EINDHOVEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG3–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PSV Eindhoven win~~78%

~~The market said~~70%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.076

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.131

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PSV Eindhoven win at 78%.
1′Much as we predicted: PSV Eindhoven was 78% before kick-off and our model makes it 78% now. 0–0 · 78–12–9
1′KICK-OFF PSV Eindhoven v Heerenveen
29′PSV Eindhoven ahead on 29′ through Guus Til. 0–0. 0–0 · 71–18–11
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' PSV Eindhoven 1–0 Heerenveen
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' PSV Eindhoven 1–0 Heerenveen · Guus Til
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' PSV Eindhoven win: 78% at kick-off, 89% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Armando Obispo · PSV Eindhoven
45′HALF-TIME PSV Eindhoven 1–0 Heerenveen
46′SECOND HALF PSV Eindhoven 1–0 Heerenveen
63′🟨 YELLOW · 60' marcus linday · Heerenveen
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Heerenveen · On: Marko Farji · Off: Maxence Rivera Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Heerenveen · On: Ringo Meerveld · Off: Dylan Vente Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PSV Eindhoven · On: Ivan Perišić · Off: Esmir Bajraktarević Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PSV Eindhoven · On: Yarek Gasiorowski · Off: Armando Obispo Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PSV Eindhoven · On: Yarek Gasiorowski · Off: Armando Obispo Corrected
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen · Guus Til
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' PSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen · marcus linday
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Sam Kersten · Heerenveen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Heerenveen · On: Mats Egbring · Off: Oliver Johansen Braude Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Heerenveen · On: Lanroy Machine · Off: Dylan Vente Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' PSV Eindhoven · On: Shuryjano Cornecion · Off: Mauro Júnior Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' PSV Eindhoven · On: Ayoni Santos · Off: Ruben van Bommel Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Heerenveen · On: Luca Oyen · Off: Nolhan courtens Corrected
FTPSV Eindhoven 2–0 Heerenveen · PSV Eindhoven win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 3–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

PSV Eindhoven win78%

Draw13%

Heerenveen win9%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Philips Stadion

Referee · Joey Kooij

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1

32 M. Kovar

8 S. Dest

6 R. Flamingo

4 A. Obispo

17 Mauro Junior

24 K. Sano

31 N. Fernandez

19 E. Bajraktarevic

20 G. Til

7 R. van Bommel

21 S. Mijnans

Coach · Peter Bosz

Substitutes

1 · N. Olij

41 · K. Ngom

3 · Y. Gasiorowski

2 · L. Geertruida

18 · F. Kostic

35 · A. Santos

42 · S. Cornecion

5 · I. Perisic

27 · D. Man

37 · A. Bouhamdi

23 · M. Bro Hansen

Heerenveen

4-2-3-1

22 B. Klaverboer

45 O. Braude

4 S. Kersten

3 M. Willemsen

19 V. Zagaritis

16 M. Linday

36 N. Courtens

20 J. Trenskow

14 L. Smans

7 M. Rivera

9 D. Vente

Coach · Robin Veldman

Substitutes

44 · A. Noppert

30 · T. Schreuder

28 · H. Petrov

2 · M. Hilgers

15 · M. Egbring

23 · D. Bladi

10 · R. Meerveld

41 · J. Scholten

21 · M. Farji

17 · R. Uldrikis

11 · L. Oyen

29 · L. Machine

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-3-1

32 M. Kovar

8 S. Dest

6 R. Flamingo

4 A. Obispo

17 Mauro Junior

24 K. Sano

31 N. Fernandez

19 E. Bajraktarevic

20 G. Til

7 R. van Bommel

21 S. Mijnans

Coach · Peter Bosz

Substitutes

1 · N. Olij

41 · K. Ngom

3 · Y. Gasiorowski

2 · L. Geertruida

18 · F. Kostic

35 · A. Santos

42 · S. Cornecion

5 · I. Perisic

27 · D. Man

37 · A. Bouhamdi

23 · M. Bro Hansen

Heerenveen

4-2-3-1

22 B. Klaverboer

45 O. Braude

4 S. Kersten

3 M. Willemsen

19 V. Zagaritis

16 M. Linday

36 N. Courtens

20 J. Trenskow

14 L. Smans

7 M. Rivera

9 D. Vente

Coach · Robin Veldman

Substitutes

44 · A. Noppert

30 · T. Schreuder

28 · H. Petrov

2 · M. Hilgers

15 · M. Egbring

23 · D. Bladi

10 · R. Meerveld

41 · J. Scholten

21 · M. Farji

17 · R. Uldrikis

11 · L. Oyen

29 · L. Machine

Our number · psv eindhoven winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

78% The market70%

Us78%

~~Market~~70%

We make PSV Eindhoven a 78% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 7 points more confident than the market. The model expects 3.3–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · psv eindhoven win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 76% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PSV Eindhoven win	78%	70%	+7
Draw	13%	15%	−2
Heerenveen win	9%	14%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	81%	79%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	69%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	93%	91%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	63%	63%	0
PSV Eindhoven or draw	91%	86%	+5
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet	33%	–	–
Heerenveen clean sheet	4%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–1 at 7.8%

0123450 1 3.9 5.1 2.6 2 6.7 7.4 4.1 3 7.1 7.8 4.4 4 5.8 6.3 3.5 5 3.8 4.2 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+PSV Eindhoven down, Heerenveen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,662 Eredivisie matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 76.2% of games this season, across 63 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PSV Eindhoven at home: 4.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Heerenveen away: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.25 goals for PSV Eindhoven, 1.11 for Heerenveen. Most likely score 3–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PSV 3–1 HEE · HEE 0–2 PSV · PSV 2–1 HEE · HEE 1–0 PSV

Form · last six in Eredivisie

PSV EINDHOVEN

WWWWWL2–1 · 5–1 · 6–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–3

HEERENVEEN

DLDLDW2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	+14	16
4	Twente	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	−1	13
7	Excelsior	7	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	−1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	−7	5
13	Telstar	7	−7	5
14	Cambuur	7	−9	5
15	Utrecht	7	−13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	−14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	−10	2
18	Willem II	7	−14	2