PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord prediction · Eredivisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

PSV EindhovenDrawFeyenoord

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · PSV Eindhoven 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

PSV Eindhoven are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PSV Eindhoven 52%, draw 21%, Feyenoord 27%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 73%.

The AI’s read on PSV Eindhoven v FeyenoordBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

PSV Eindhoven win52%

Draw21%

Feyenoord win27%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenuePhilips Stadion

RefereeSerdar Gozubuyuk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PSV Eindhoven

Feyenoord

5Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · psv eindhoven winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market47%

Us52%

~~Market~~47%

We make PSV Eindhoven a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PSV Eindhoven v Feyenoord~~2.32 – 1.64

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 30 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 23~~3 v 1

~~The market · PSV Eindhoven win~~47% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · PSV Eindhoven win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PSV Eindhoven win	52%	47%	+5
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Feyenoord win	27%	31%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	75%	73%	+2
Both teams to score	73%	72%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	91%	88%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	56%	55%	+1
PSV Eindhoven or draw	73%	69%	+4
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet	20%	–	–
Feyenoord clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.6 2.7 2.6 1 3.9 7.8 5.9 3.3 2 5.1 8.3 6.8 3.7 3 3.9 6.4 5.2 2.9 4 2.3 3.7 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PSV Eindhoven down, Feyenoord across0–5 goals a side shown (95.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,681 Eredivisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.6% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PSV Eindhoven at home: 4.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Feyenoord away: 3.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.32 goals for PSV Eindhoven, 1.64 for Feyenoord. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PSV 3–0 FEY · FEY 2–3 PSV · FEY 2–3 PSV · PSV 2–0 FEY

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 30 Aug

PSV EINDHOVEN

WWWLWL6–1 · 3–1 · 4–1 · 2–3 · 2–0 · 1–2

FEYENOORD

DWWWWW2–2 · 3–1 · 7–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 4–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Groningen	9	+3	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
9	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
10	Utrecht	10	−10	12
11	Excelsior	9	−2	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
14	Cambuur	9	−8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	−12	8
16	ADO Den Haag	9	−9	6
17	Telstar	10	−9	6
18	Willem II	9	−17	2