PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles prediction · Eredivisie

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 14:08

PEC Zwolle 4–1 GO Ahead Eagles GO AHEAD EAGLES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said GO Ahead Eagles win~~44%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.737

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.851

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GO Ahead Eagles win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: GO Ahead Eagles was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 31–25–44
1′KICK-OFF PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles
21′We published GO Ahead Eagles at 44%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 12–18–70
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' PEC Zwolle 0–1 GO Ahead Eagles
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' GO Ahead Eagles win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
23′22′: Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson on the scoresheet for GO Ahead Eagles, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 12–18–70
25′SUBSTITUTION · 24' PEC Zwolle · On: Damian van der Haar · Off: Sherel Floranus
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 11–19–71
45′SECOND HALF PEC Zwolle 0–1 GO Ahead Eagles
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' PEC Zwolle 1–1 GO Ahead Eagles
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' GO Ahead Eagles win: 44% at kick-off, 36% now
48′PEC Zwolle level it on 47′ through Sydney van Hooijdonk. 1–1. 1–1 · 27–37–36
48′HALF-TIME PEC Zwolle 0–1 GO Ahead Eagles
49′9 shots for PEC Zwolle, 4 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 27–38–35
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' GO Ahead Eagles win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was GO Ahead Eagles win 34%)
57′We said GO Ahead Eagles at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 25–43–32
58′We said GO Ahead Eagles at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 68–23–9
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' PEC Zwolle 2–1 GO Ahead Eagles
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' GO Ahead Eagles win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' PEC Zwolle win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 23%)
59′Thijs Oosting scores for PEC Zwolle on 58′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 69–23–8
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Tomas Galvez · Off: Dean Ruben James
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Yassir Salah Rahmouni · Off: Evert Linthorst
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Thibo Baeten · Off: Mathis Suray
70′We said GO Ahead Eagles at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–20–4
70′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 96–4–1
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' GO Ahead Eagles win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' PEC Zwolle 3–1 GO Ahead Eagles
71′70′: Thijs Oosting on the scoresheet for PEC Zwolle, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 96–4–1
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' PEC Zwolle · On: Ibrahim Cissoko · Off: Dylan Mbayo
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Oskar Siira Sivertsen · Off: Alfons Sampsted
80′SUBSTITUTION · 78' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Erik Flataker Hovden · Off: Giovanni Van Zwam
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' PEC Zwolle · On: Koen Kostons · Off: Sydney van Hooijdonk
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' PEC Zwolle · On: Jan Burger · Off: Gilles Van Der Wal
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' PEC Zwolle · On: Tijs Velthuis · Off: Ryan Thomas
89′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' PEC Zwolle 4–1 GO Ahead Eagles
90′PEC Zwolle ahead on 89′ through Koen Kostons. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
91′Full time, 4–1. We called GO Ahead Eagles at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 4–1 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME PEC Zwolle 4–1 GO Ahead Eagles
FTPEC Zwolle 4–1 GO Ahead Eagles · GO Ahead Eagles win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PEC Zwolle 31%, draw 25%, GO Ahead Eagles 44%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead EaglesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

PEC Zwolle win31%

Draw25%

GO Ahead Eagles win44%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:15

RoundMatchday 9

VenueMAC³PARK Stadion

RefereeDanny Makkelie

Line-ups

PEC Zwolle

4-2-3-1

GO Ahead Eagles

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PEC Zwolle

GO Ahead Eagles

7Days since last match8

Last match: 11 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 10 Oct · Eredivisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	GO Ahead Eagles	8	+2	11
17	PEC Zwolle	8	−15	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

PEC Zwolle

4-2-3-1

1 J. Schendelaar

3 O. Aertssen

28 S. Graves

24 N. Viergever

2 S. Floranus

30 R. Thomas

8 T. Sommer

37 Gilles van der Wal

25 T. Oosting

11 D. Mbayo

17 S. van Hooijdonk

Coach · Henry van der Vegt

Substitutes

22 · I. Cissoko

41 · D. Verduin

16 · T. de Graaff

34 · N. Fichtinger

10 · K. Kostons

26 · Jadiel Pereira da Gama

20 · G. Reiziger

9 · E. Sørensen

33 · D. van der Haar

18 · O. Velanas

4 · T. Velthuis

6 · Jan Bürger

GO Ahead Eagles

4-2-3-1

1 K. Haug

2 A. Sampsted

25 G. van Zwam

4 J. Kramer

5 D. James

21 M. Meulensteen

8 E. Linthorst

16 V. Edvardsen

10 S. Tengstedt

17 M. Suray

9 S. Sigurðarson

Coach · J. Oosting

Substitutes

15 · R. Weijenberg

30 · T. Hulleman

33 · N. Verdoni

11 · O. Sivertsen

34 · Y. Rahmouni

3 · G. Nauber

18 · R. Margaret

6 · T. Jukić

27 · Tomas Galvez

29 · E. Flataker

26 · J. Dirksen

23 · T. Baeten

Our number · go ahead eagles winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make GO Ahead Eagles a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PEC Zwolle v GO Ahead Eagles~~1.42 – 1.75

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 11~~17 v 9

~~The market · GO Ahead Eagles win~~49% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · GO Ahead Eagles win The market, margin stripped

Published at 45%, 44% now. The market has gone from 46% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PEC Zwolle win	31%	26%	+5
Draw	25%	25%	0
GO Ahead Eagles win	44%	49%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	64%	−3
Both teams to score	63%	65%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	39%	44%	−5
PEC Zwolle or draw	56%	51%	+5
PEC Zwolle clean sheet	18%	–	–
GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.1 6.6 6.4 3.7 1 5.3 11.2 9.0 5.2 2.3 2 4.3 7.3 6.3 3.7 3 2.1 3.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PEC Zwolle down, GO Ahead Eagles across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,675 Eredivisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.38 goals a meeting; 2 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PEC Zwolle at home: 0.33 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). GO Ahead Eagles away: 1.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.42 goals for PEC Zwolle, 1.75 for GO Ahead Eagles. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.38

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~GOA 5–0 PEC · PEC 0–2 GOA · PEC 1–1 GOA · GOA 2–2 PEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug

PEC ZWOLLE

WLDLLL2–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–7 · 0–3 · 0–1

GO AHEAD EAGLES

WLDDDD3–1 · 2–5 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	8	+10	19
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Twente	8	+8	17
5	Ajax	8	+12	15
6	Groningen	8	+6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	−1	14
8	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	8	+2	11
10	Excelsior	9	−2	11
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	−1	9
12	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
13	Cambuur	8	−8	8
14	Utrecht	8	−11	8
15	Telstar	9	−8	6
16	ADO Den Haag	9	−9	6
17	PEC Zwolle	8	−15	4
18	Willem II	9	−17	2