PEC Zwolle v Cambuur prediction · Eredivisie

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:04

PEC Zwolle 0–1 Cambuur PEC ZWOLLE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said PEC Zwolle win~~47%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.787

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.792

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said PEC Zwolle win at 47%.
1′KICK-OFF PEC Zwolle v Cambuur
2′Little has changed for our model: PEC Zwolle 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
3′Little has changed for our model: PEC Zwolle 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
37′8.0 shots for PEC Zwolle, 0.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 41–31–27
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Sherel Floranus · PEC Zwolle
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Devid Eugene Bouah · Cambuur
40′8.0 shots for PEC Zwolle, 0.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 41–32–27
45′SECOND HALF PEC Zwolle 0–0 Cambuur
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cambuur · On: Jason Ceka · Off: Fabian Kvam
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' PEC Zwolle win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' PEC Zwolle win: 47% at kick-off, 38% now
52′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Cambuur · On: Nicolas Binder · Off: Ethan Apkakou
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Ibrahim Cissoko · PEC Zwolle
55′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Jason Ceka · Cambuur
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' PEC Zwolle · On: Elias Sörensen · Off: Ibrahim Cissoko
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' PEC Zwolle · On: Sydney van Hooijdonk · Off: Koen Kostons
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Cambuur · On: Sami Bouhoudane · Off: Mathieu Maertens
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Morgan Costarelli · Cambuur
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cambuur · On: Jamal Amofa · Off: Devid Eugene Bouah
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' PEC Zwolle · On: Gilles Van Der Wal · Off: Thijs Oosting
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' PEC Zwolle · On: Gabriel Reiziger · Off: Dylan Mbayo
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Cambuur · On: Rik Mulders · Off: Jamal Amofa
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' PEC Zwolle 0–1 Cambuur
82′⚽ GOAL · 83' PEC Zwolle 0–1 Cambuur · Nicolas Binder
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Gabriel Reiziger · PEC Zwolle
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' PEC Zwolle · On: Damian van der Haar · Off: Sherel Floranus
FTFULL TIME PEC Zwolle 0–1 Cambuur
FTPEC Zwolle 0–1 Cambuur · PEC Zwolle win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

PEC Zwolle win47%

Draw24%

Cambuur win29%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:30

VenueMAC³PARK Stadion

RefereeSander van der Eijk

Line-ups

PEC Zwolle

4-2-3-1

Cambuur

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

PEC Zwolle

Cambuur

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Cambuur	7	−9	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	−14	4

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

PEC Zwolle

4-2-3-1

1 J. Schendelaar

3 O. Aertssen

28 S. Graves

24 N. Viergever

2 S. Floranus

30 R. Thomas

8 T. Sommer

11 D. Mbayo

25 T. Oosting

22 I. Cissoko

10 K. Kostons

Coach · Henry Van Der Vegt

Substitutes

41 · D. Verduin

16 · T. de Graaff

4 · T. Velthuis

33 · D. van der Haar

6 · J. Burger

34 · N. Fichtinger

26 · J. Pereira da Gama

18 · O. Velanas

20 · G. Reiziger

37 · G. van der Wal

17 · S. van Hooijdonk

9 · E. Sorensen

Cambuur

4-2-3-1

1 T. Jansen

2 D. Bouah

4 I. Baouf

14 B. van Duijl

28 M. Costarelli

17 E. Apkakou

8 N. Souren

15 F. Kvam

10 R. El Arguioui

11 I. Hamache

33 M. Maertens

Coach · Johan Plat

Substitutes

22 · L. Plogmann

24 · M. Kalisvaart

6 · J. Amofa

16 · R. Mulders

3 · J. Berkhout

23 · L. Jetten

30 · J. Ceka

9 · S. Vink

13 · N. Binder

7 · S. Bouhoudane

27 · W. Kooistra

29 · I. Henstra

Our number · pec zwolle winPublished 11 Oct 13:43

47% The market47%

Us47%

~~Market~~47%

We make PEC Zwolle a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · pec zwolle win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 48% to 47% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PEC Zwolle win	47%	47%	0
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Cambuur win	29%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Both teams to score	64%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	83%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	43%	−2
PEC Zwolle or draw	71%	72%	0
PEC Zwolle clean sheet	25%	–	–
Cambuur clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 4.9 4.7 3.9 1 6.3 10.7 6.9 3.3 2 6.6 9.0 6.3 3.0 3 4.1 5.6 3.9 4 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PEC Zwolle down, Cambuur across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,667 Eredivisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PEC Zwolle at home: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Cambuur away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.86 goals for PEC Zwolle, 1.41 for Cambuur. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 13:05. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CAM 3–4 PEC · PEC 1–2 CAM

Form · last six in Eredivisie

PEC ZWOLLE

LWLDLL1–3 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–7 · 0–3

CAMBUUR

LLLDWD1–3 · 2–5 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	8	+20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	+16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	+10	19
4	Twente	8	+8	17
5	Ajax	8	+12	15
6	Fortuna Sittard	8	−1	14
7	Excelsior	7	+6	11
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	+2	11
9	Groningen	7	+2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	−1	9
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	−7	6
13	Telstar	7	−7	5
14	Cambuur	7	−9	5
15	Utrecht	7	−13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	−14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	−10	2
18	Willem II	7	−14	2