NEC Nijmegen v Groningen prediction · Eredivisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NEC NijmegenDrawGroningen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · NEC Nijmegen 52%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NEC Nijmegen 52%, draw 23%, Groningen 25%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on NEC Nijmegen v GroningenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

NEC Nijmegen win52%

Draw23%

Groningen win25%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 10

VenueStadion de Goffert

RefereeMartin Van den Kerkhof

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NEC Nijmegen

Groningen

3Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 18 Oct · Eredivisie

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Groningen	9	+3	14
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nec nijmegen winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

52% The market41%

Us52%

~~Market~~41%

We make NEC Nijmegen a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NEC Nijmegen v Groningen~~1.99 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 14~~13 v 8

~~The market · NEC Nijmegen win~~41% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NEC Nijmegen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NEC Nijmegen win	52%	41%	+11
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Groningen win	25%	34%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	64%	66%	−2
Both teams to score	63%	68%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	46%	−4
NEC Nijmegen or draw	75%	66%	+9
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	27%	–	–
Groningen clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 4.6 4.2 3.2 1 6.6 10.3 6.3 2.8 2 7.3 9.4 6.1 2.7 3 4.8 6.2 4.1 4 2.4 3.1 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NEC Nijmegen down, Groningen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,684 Eredivisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.3% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.33 goals a meeting; 6 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Groningen away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for NEC Nijmegen, 1.31 for Groningen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 9

~~Both scored~~5 of 9

~~Last meetings~~GRO 2–1 NEC · NEC 2–0 GRO · GRO 2–1 NEC · NEC 6–0 GRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 28 Aug

NEC NIJMEGEN

LDLDDD1–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

GRONINGEN

LDDWWL2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 2–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	+5	15
8	Groningen	9	+3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	−3	12
11	Utrecht	10	−10	12
12	Excelsior	9	−2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	−12	8
16	Telstar	10	−9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	−10	6
18	Willem II	10	−22	2