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NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard

NEC Nijmegen

2–2Full time

Fortuna Sittard

Eredivisie · SUN 18 OCT · Stadion de Goffert

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 21:31

NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Fortuna Sittard NEC NIJMEGEN WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said NEC Nijmegen win~~59%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.006

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.935

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said NEC Nijmegen win at 59%.
1′KICK-OFF NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard
2′Little has changed for our model: NEC Nijmegen 59% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–22–19
18′18′: Anthony Descotte on the scoresheet for Fortuna Sittard, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 32–24–44
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' NEC Nijmegen 0–1 Fortuna Sittard · Anthony Descotte
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' NEC Nijmegen win: 59% at kick-off, 32% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was NEC Nijmegen win 32%)
20′We said NEC Nijmegen at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 0–1 · 31–25–45
24′We said NEC Nijmegen at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–1 · 29–25–46
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' NEC Nijmegen win: 59% at kick-off, 29% now
29′NEC Nijmegen level it on 28′ through Kevin Kers. 1–1. 1–1 · 53–27–20
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Fortuna Sittard · Kevin Kers
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' NEC Nijmegen win: 59% at kick-off, 53% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' NEC Nijmegen win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Fortuna Sittard win 20%)
35′NEC Nijmegen have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 51–29–20
37′8 shots for NEC Nijmegen, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 50–30–20
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Shiloh 't Zand · Fortuna Sittard
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' NEC Nijmegen win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
44′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 48–33–19
45′We said NEC Nijmegen at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 47%. 1–1 · 47–33–19
45′HALF-TIME NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Fortuna Sittard
46′SECOND HALF NEC Nijmegen 1–1 Fortuna Sittard
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Fortuna Sittard · On: Kristoffer Peterson · Off: Sven Simons
49′We said NEC Nijmegen at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–28–54
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' NEC Nijmegen 1–2 Fortuna Sittard
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' NEC Nijmegen win: 59% at kick-off, 18% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was NEC Nijmegen win 18%)
50′Anthony Descotte scores for Fortuna Sittard on 48′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 17–28–55
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Rodrigo Guth · Fortuna Sittard
56′We said NEC Nijmegen at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–28–58
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' NEC Nijmegen · On: Adam Tahaui · Off: Kevin Kers
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' NEC Nijmegen · On: Mitchel Bakker · Off: Deveron Fonville
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' NEC Nijmegen · On: Kaj Sierhuis · Off: Noe Lebreton
65′We said NEC Nijmegen at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–26–64
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' NEC Nijmegen win: 59% at kick-off, 9% now
69′NEC Nijmegen have had 13 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 7–25–68
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Fortuna Sittard · On: Daley Sinkgraven · Off: Lequincio Zeefuik
75′We said NEC Nijmegen at 59%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–21–74
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Fortuna Sittard · On: Siebe Wylin · Off: Shiloh 't Zand
84′16 shots for NEC Nijmegen, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 1–12–87
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' NEC Nijmegen · On: Perr Schuurs · Off: Jamiro Monteiro
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' NEC Nijmegen · On: Willum Thor Willumsson · Off: Tobias Storm
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Fortuna Sittard · On: Nick de Groot · Off: Syb Van Ottele
90′PENALTY · 88' NEC Nijmegen
93′20 shots for NEC Nijmegen, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 3–95–2
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Fortuna Sittard
93′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+3' Draw is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Fortuna Sittard win 2%)
93′PENALTY MISSED · 90' Mitchel Bakker · NEC Nijmegen
94′90′: Willum Thor Willumsson on the scoresheet for NEC Nijmegen, making it 2–2. 2–2 · 2–96–1
FTFULL TIME NEC Nijmegen 2–2 Fortuna Sittard
FTNEC Nijmegen 2–2 Fortuna Sittard · NEC Nijmegen win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

NEC Nijmegen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: NEC Nijmegen 59%, draw 22%, Fortuna Sittard 19%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna SittardBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

NEC Nijmegen win59%

Draw22%

Fortuna Sittard win19%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueStadion de Goffert

RefereeAlex Bos

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen

3-4-2-1

Fortuna Sittard

5-3-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

NEC Nijmegen

Fortuna Sittard

3Days since last match8

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 10 Oct · Eredivisie

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	−1	14
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	−1	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

NEC Nijmegen

3-4-2-1

1 G. Crettaz

21 T. Storm

22 A. Kaplan

24 Deveron Fonville

34 Kevin Kers

6 D. Nejašmić

18 D. Geiger

35 Jamiro Monteiro

20 N. Lebreton

99 Clement Bischoff

30 B. Linssen

Coach · Dick Schreuder

Substitutes

5 · M. Bakker

11 · W. Willumsson

19 · Adam Tahaui

73 · Gabriel Brás

9 · T. Chery

38 · Joep Geneste

8 · I. Hansen-Aarøen

66 · Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar

42 · Y. Moslih

12 · N. Polster

4 · P. Schuurs

14 · K. Sierhuis

Fortuna Sittard

5-3-2

31 M. Branderhorst

12 Ivo Pinto

6 S. van Ottele

3 Rodrigo Guth

23 P. Brittijn

28 Justin Quincy Hubner

14 S. Simons

20 É. Michut

22 Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand

9 A. Descotte

25 L. Zeefuik

Coach · D. Buijs

Substitutes

24 · D. Sinkgraven

7 · K. Peterson

1 · L. Koopmans

33 · K. Reitmaier

38 · Moussa Gbemou

15 · N. de Groot

39 · Ganni Buyukhan

52 · M. Ihattaren

2 · S. Wylin

Our number · nec nijmegen winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

59% The market55%

Us59%

~~Market~~55%

We make NEC Nijmegen a 59% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · NEC Nijmegen v Fortuna Sittard~~2.17 – 1.15

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 14~~11 v 7

~~The market · NEC Nijmegen win~~55% · ours 59%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · NEC Nijmegen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 64% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
NEC Nijmegen win	59%	55%	+4
Draw	22%	23%	−1
Fortuna Sittard win	19%	22%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	64%	64%	0
Both teams to score	61%	63%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	44%	−2
NEC Nijmegen or draw	81%	78%	+3
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	32%	–	–
Fortuna Sittard clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.5 3.6 2.5 1 7.2 9.7 5.2 2.0 2 8.4 9.6 5.5 2.2 3 6.1 6.9 4.0 4 3.3 3.8 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+NEC Nijmegen down, Fortuna Sittard across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,675 Eredivisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

NEC Nijmegen at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Fortuna Sittard away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.17 goals for NEC Nijmegen, 1.15 for Fortuna Sittard. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEC 2–3 FOR · FOR 3–2 NEC · NEC 4–1 FOR · FOR 0–3 NEC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug

NEC NIJMEGEN

WLDLDD3–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

FORTUNA SITTARD

LWWLWD0–2 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Twente	8	+8	17
5	Ajax	8	+12	15
6	Groningen	8	+6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	−1	14
8	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	−1	11
10	Excelsior	9	−2	11
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	−1	9
12	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
13	Cambuur	9	−8	9
14	Utrecht	8	−11	8
15	PEC Zwolle	9	−12	7
16	Telstar	9	−8	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	−9	6
18	Willem II	9	−17	2