Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen prediction · Eredivisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

HeerenveenDrawNEC Nijmegen

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Heerenveen 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Heerenveen just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Heerenveen 39%, draw 25%, NEC Nijmegen 37%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Heerenveen v NEC NijmegenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Heerenveen win39%

Draw25%

NEC Nijmegen win37%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 17:45

RoundMatchday 11

VenueAbe Lenstra Stadion

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Heerenveen

NEC Nijmegen

7Days since last match9

Last match: 24 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Heerenveen	10	+5	15
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · heerenveen winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Heerenveen a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Heerenveen v NEC Nijmegen~~1.67 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W0 D4 L2

~~Table places · points 15 v 10~~7 v 13

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heerenveen win	39%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
NEC Nijmegen win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Heerenveen or draw	63%	–	–
Heerenveen clean sheet	20%	–	–
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.6 5.3 4.9 2.7 1 5.5 10.8 8.0 4.4 2 5.2 8.3 6.7 3.6 3 2.9 4.6 3.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Heerenveen down, NEC Nijmegen across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,684 Eredivisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.3% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Heerenveen at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). NEC Nijmegen away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Heerenveen, 1.62 for NEC Nijmegen. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NEC 2–2 HEE · HEE 3–2 NEC · HEE 1–0 NEC · NEC 3–0 HEE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 5 Sept

HEERENVEEN

LDWLWW2–3 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 0–2 · 4–0 · 3–2

NEC NIJMEGEN

LDLDDD1–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	+5	15
8	Groningen	9	+3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	−3	12
11	Utrecht	10	−10	12
12	Excelsior	9	−2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	−12	8
16	Telstar	10	−9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	−10	6
18	Willem II	10	−22	2