Heerenveen v Excelsior prediction · Eredivisie

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 21:30

Heerenveen 4–0 Excelsior HEERENVEEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Heerenveen win~~49%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.394

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.235

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Heerenveen win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Heerenveen 49% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–23–28
1′KICK-OFF Heerenveen v Excelsior
11′We said Heerenveen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 1–0 · 72–16–11
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Heerenveen 1–0 Excelsior
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Heerenveen win: 49% at kick-off, 72% now
12′Heerenveen ahead on 11′ through Dylan Vente. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–17–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 73–18–9
44′We said Heerenveen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–18–7
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson · Excelsior
45′SECOND HALF Heerenveen 1–0 Excelsior
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Excelsior · On: Mario Domínguez Franco · Off: David Garden
47′HALF-TIME Heerenveen 1–0 Excelsior
53′We said Heerenveen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
53′⚽ GOAL · 53' Heerenveen 2–0 Excelsior
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Heerenveen win: 49% at kick-off, 94% now
54′Oliver Johansen Braude scores for Heerenveen on 54′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
55′We said Heerenveen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Excelsior · On: Ilano Silva Timas · Off: Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Excelsior · On: Valentin Sulzbacher · Off: Aymen sliti
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Excelsior · On: Osman Turay · Off: Simon Janssen
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Heerenveen · On: Marko Farji · Off: Maxence Rivera
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Heerenveen win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Excelsior · On: Noah Naujoks · Off: Eric da Silva Moreira
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Heerenveen · On: Luca Oyen · Off: Nolhan courtens
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Heerenveen · On: Ringo Meerveld · Off: Levi Smans
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Heerenveen · On: Roberts Uldriķis · Off: Dylan Vente
83′We said Heerenveen at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
84′84′: Luca Oyen on the scoresheet for Heerenveen, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Heerenveen 3–0 Excelsior
87′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Heerenveen · On: Hristiyan Petrov · Off: Maas Willemsen
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Heerenveen 4–0 Excelsior
88′Heerenveen ahead on 88′ through Jacob Trenskow. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
92′4–0 at the end. Our 49% on Heerenveen comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Heerenveen 4–0 Excelsior
FTHeerenveen 4–0 Excelsior · Heerenveen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Heerenveen are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Heerenveen 49%, draw 24%, Excelsior 27%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Heerenveen v ExcelsiorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Heerenveen win49%

Draw24%

Excelsior win27%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueAbe Lenstra Stadion

RefereeRobin Hensgens

Line-ups

Heerenveen

4-2-3-1

Excelsior

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Heerenveen

Excelsior

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 11 Oct · Eredivisie

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Excelsior	8	+2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	0	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Heerenveen

4-2-3-1

1 B. Klaverboer

45 O. Braude

4 S. Kersten

3 M. Willemsen

19 V. Zagaritis

16 M. Linday

8 N. Courtens

20 J. Trenskow

14 L. Smans

7 M. Rivera

9 D. Vente

Coach · R. Veldeman

Substitutes

23 · D. Bladi

49 · Anass Bouziane

21 · M. Farji

2 · M. Hilgers

28 · H. Petrov

29 · L. Machine

10 · R. Meerveld

15 · M. Egbring

44 · A. Noppert

11 · L. Oyen

30 · T. Schreuder

17 · R. Uldriķis

Excelsior

4-3-3

1 S. van Gassel

2 Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira

4 C. Widell

14 J. Plug

15 S. Janssen

8 I. Yegoian

3 R. Meissen

20 L. Hartjes

7 A. Sliti

19 D. Garden

30 Á. Þorsteinsson

Coach · R. den Uil

Substitutes

6 · D. van Vianen

22 · O. Turay

18 · V. Sulzbacher

21 · I. Silva Timas

10 · N. Naujoks

11 · A. Jahanbakhsh

28 · N. Groen

9 · Mario Domínguez

24 · Giulliano Cairo

16 · Celton Biai

Our number · heerenveen winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 12 Oct 04:03 · locked at kick-off

49% The market60%

Us49%

~~Market~~60%

We make Heerenveen a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Heerenveen v Excelsior~~1.87 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 11~~10 v 9

~~The market · Heerenveen win~~60% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Heerenveen win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 49% now. The market has gone from 54% to 60% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Heerenveen win	49%	60%	−11
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Excelsior win	27%	18%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Both teams to score	63%	64%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Heerenveen or draw	73%	82%	−9
Heerenveen clean sheet	26%	–	–
Excelsior clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.9 4.7 3.7 1 6.7 10.8 6.8 3.1 2 6.9 9.3 6.3 2.8 3 4.3 5.8 3.9 4 2.1 2.7 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Heerenveen down, Excelsior across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,671 Eredivisie matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.2% of games this season, across 72 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Heerenveen at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Excelsior away: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.87 goals for Heerenveen, 1.36 for Excelsior. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 16 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~EXC 1–2 HEE · HEE 2–1 EXC · EXC 3–0 HEE · HEE 0–3 EXC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug

HEERENVEEN

LDLDWL0–2 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 0–2

EXCELSIOR

WWDLDL2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	8	+20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	+16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	+10	19
4	Twente	8	+8	17
5	Ajax	8	+12	15
6	Groningen	8	+6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	−1	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	+2	11
9	Excelsior	8	+2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	−1	9
12	Cambuur	8	−8	8
13	Utrecht	8	−11	8
14	Sparta Rotterdam	8	−7	6
15	Telstar	8	−7	6
16	PEC Zwolle	8	−15	4
17	ADO Den Haag	8	−10	3
18	Willem II	8	−16	2