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Groningen v Ajax
Groningen
AjaxEredivisie · SUN 18 OCT · Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Ajax win at 46%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Ajax 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 28–25–46
- 2′KICK-OFF Groningen v Ajax
- 11′PENALTY MISSED · 10' Davy Klaassen · Ajax
- 28′Julian Brandt scores for Ajax on 27′. 0–0 · 27–30–42
- 28′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 10–18–73
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Groningen 0–1 Ajax · Julian Brandt
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 9–18–73
- 38′37′: Aaron Bouwman on the scoresheet for Ajax. 0–1 · 8–18–73
- 39′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
- 39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Groningen 0–2 Ajax · Aaron Bouwman
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
- 45′HALF-TIME Groningen 0–2 Ajax
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Thom Van Bergen · Groningen
- 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Dies Janse · Ajax
- 46′SECOND HALF Groningen 0–2 Ajax
- 50′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–18–75
- 50′Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson scores for Groningen on 49′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–18–75
- 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Groningen 1–2 Ajax
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
- 57′56′: Davy Klaassen on the scoresheet for Ajax. 1–2 · 5–18–77
- 58′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
- 58′⚽ GOAL · 56' Groningen 1–3 Ajax · Davy Klaassen
- 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
- 58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 56' Davy Klaassen · Ajax
- 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 78% now
- 61′60′: Julian Brandt on the scoresheet for Ajax, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
- 61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Groningen 1–3 Ajax · Julian Brandt (assist Owen Wijndal)
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
- 62′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–3–96
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Groningen · On: Mark Csinger · Off: Jacob Ondrejka
- 70′Jorthy Mokio scores for Ajax on 69′. 1–3 · 0–2–98
- 71′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
- 71′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
- 71′⚽ GOAL · 69' Groningen 1–4 Ajax · Jorthy Mokio
- 76′Jorthy Mokio scores for Ajax on 75′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
- 76′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ajax · On: Tolu Arokodare · Off: Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida
- 76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Groningen 1–5 Ajax · Jorthy Mokio
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ajax · On: Abdellah Ouazane · Off: Julian Brandt
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ajax · On: Rayane Bounida · Off: Oscar Gloukh
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ajax · On: Yves Bissouma · Off: Davy Klaassen
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Groningen · On: Tygo Land · Off: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Groningen · On: Ryan Metu · Off: David van der Werff
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Groningen · On: Wouter Prins · Off: Marco Rente
- 84′83′: Thom Van Bergen on the scoresheet for Groningen, making it 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Groningen · On: Nils Eggens · Off: Tika de Jonge
- 84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Groningen 2–5 Ajax · Thom Van Bergen
- 85′7 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–0–100
- 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lucas Oliveira·Rosa · Ajax
- 92′PENALTY MISSED · 90+1' Thom Van Bergen · Groningen
- FTFULL TIME Groningen 2–5 Ajax
- FTGroningen 2–5 Ajax · Ajax win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Ajax are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Groningen 28%, draw 25%, Ajax 46%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Groningen win28%
Ajax win46%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:45
RoundMatchday 9
VenueHitachi Capital Mobility Stadion
RefereeDennis Higler
Match timeline
All events
GroningenMIN
AjaxEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Groningen
4-2-3-1
Ajax
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Groningen
Ajax
Last match: 11 Oct · Eredivisie
Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Groningen
4-2-3-1
1 E. Vaessen
14 J. Schreuders
3 T. Blokzijl
5 M. Rente
33 H. Hateboer
8 T. de Jonge
24 P. Clement
17 D. van der Werff
26 T. van Bergen
11 J. Ondrejka
9 B. Willumsson
Coach · D. Lukkien
Substitutes
19 · O. Zawada
30 · P. Boevink
4 · M. Csinger
44 · Besnik Mashuku
20 · Nils Eggens
7 · T. Hernes
18 · T. Land
34 · R. Metu
42 · J. Mosselaar
16 · A. Nordin
2 · Wouter Prins
13 · L. Štubljar
Ajax
4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen
2 Lucas Rosa
30 A. Bouwman
36 D. Janse
5 O. Wijndal
18 D. Klaassen
4 S. Amrabat
24 J. Mokio
8 J. Brandt
38 Marcos Leonardo
10 O. Gloukh
Coach · Míchel
Substitutes
99 · T. Arokodare
15 · Y. Baas
28 · Y. Bissouma
43 · Rayane Bounida
6 · T. Kehrer
68 · A. Ouazane
26 · M. Paes
51 · C. Setford
21 · Jofre Torrents
11 · V. Tsygankov
67 · Mohamed Abdalla
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Groningen
4-2-3-1
1 E. Vaessen
14 J. Schreuders
3 T. Blokzijl
5 M. Rente
33 H. Hateboer
8 T. de Jonge
24 P. Clement
17 D. van der Werff
26 T. van Bergen
11 J. Ondrejka
9 B. Willumsson
Coach · D. Lukkien
Substitutes
19 · O. Zawada
30 · P. Boevink
4 · M. Csinger
44 · Besnik Mashuku
20 · Nils Eggens
7 · T. Hernes
18 · T. Land
34 · R. Metu
42 · J. Mosselaar
16 · A. Nordin
2 · Wouter Prins
13 · L. Štubljar
Ajax
4-3-3
1 M. ter Stegen
2 Lucas Rosa
30 A. Bouwman
36 D. Janse
5 O. Wijndal
18 D. Klaassen
4 S. Amrabat
24 J. Mokio
8 J. Brandt
38 Marcos Leonardo
10 O. Gloukh
Coach · Míchel
Substitutes
99 · T. Arokodare
15 · Y. Baas
28 · Y. Bissouma
43 · Rayane Bounida
6 · T. Kehrer
68 · A. Ouazane
26 · M. Paes
51 · C. Setford
21 · Jofre Torrents
11 · V. Tsygankov
67 · Mohamed Abdalla
We make Ajax a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 47%, 46% now. The market has gone from 55% to 52% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Groningen win | 28% | 25% | +3 |
| Draw | 25% | 23% | +2 |
| Ajax win | 46% | 52% | −6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 70% | −12 |
| Both teams to score | 60% | 68% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | 86% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36% | 50% | −14 |
| Groningen or draw | 54% | 48% | +6 |
| Groningen clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
| Ajax clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
9 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 23 Aug
GRONINGEN
AJAX
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 9 | +21 | 23 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | +10 | 19 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 9 | +15 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | +8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | +12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | +6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | −1 | 14 |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | +4 | 12 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 | Excelsior | 9 | −2 | 11 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | −1 | 9 |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | −6 | 9 |
| 13 | Cambuur | 8 | −8 | 8 |
| 14 | Utrecht | 8 | −11 | 8 |
| 15 | Telstar | 9 | −8 | 6 |
| 16 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | −9 | 6 |
| 17 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | −15 | 4 |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | −17 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Feyenoord
AZ Alkmaar
PSV Eindhoven
Twente
Fortuna Sittard
Heerenveen
GO Ahead Eagles
Excelsior
NEC Nijmegen
Sparta Rotterdam
Cambuur
Utrecht
Telstar
ADO Den Haag
PEC Zwolle
Willem II