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Groningen v Ajax

Groningen
2–5Full time
Ajax

Eredivisie · SUN 18 OCT · Hitachi Capital Mobility Stadion

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 18:32
Groningen 2–5 Ajax AJAX WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Ajax win46%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.430
The market’s Brier score0.348

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Ajax win at 46%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Ajax 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 28–25–46
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Groningen v Ajax
  4. 11′PENALTY MISSED · 10' Davy Klaassen · Ajax
  5. 28′Julian Brandt scores for Ajax on 27′. 0–0 · 27–30–42
  6. 28′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 10–18–73
  7. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' Groningen 0–1 Ajax · Julian Brandt
  8. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 73% now
  9. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 9–18–73
  10. 38′37′: Aaron Bouwman on the scoresheet for Ajax. 0–1 · 8–18–73
  11. 39′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
  12. 39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Groningen 0–2 Ajax · Aaron Bouwman
  13. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 92% now
  14. 45′HALF-TIME Groningen 0–2 Ajax
  15. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Thom Van Bergen · Groningen
  16. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Dies Janse · Ajax
  17. 46′SECOND HALF Groningen 0–2 Ajax
  18. 50′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–2 · 6–18–75
  19. 50′Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson scores for Groningen on 49′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 6–18–75
  20. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Groningen 1–2 Ajax
  21. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 75% now
  22. 57′56′: Davy Klaassen on the scoresheet for Ajax. 1–2 · 5–18–77
  23. 58′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–3 · 1–4–95
  24. 58′⚽ GOAL · 56' Groningen 1–3 Ajax · Davy Klaassen
  25. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 95% now
  26. 58′GOAL DISALLOWED · 56' Davy Klaassen · Ajax
  27. 59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 78% now
  28. 61′60′: Julian Brandt on the scoresheet for Ajax, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–96
  29. 61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Groningen 1–3 Ajax · Julian Brandt (assist Owen Wijndal)
  30. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Ajax win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
  31. 62′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–3–96
  32. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Groningen · On: Mark Csinger · Off: Jacob Ondrejka
  33. 70′Jorthy Mokio scores for Ajax on 69′. 1–3 · 0–2–98
  34. 71′We said Ajax at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  35. 71′5 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
  36. 71′⚽ GOAL · 69' Groningen 1–4 Ajax · Jorthy Mokio
  37. 76′Jorthy Mokio scores for Ajax on 75′ — 1–5. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  38. 76′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 1–5 · 0–0–100
  39. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Ajax · On: Tolu Arokodare · Off: Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida
  40. 76′⚽ GOAL · 75' Groningen 1–5 Ajax · Jorthy Mokio
  41. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Ajax · On: Abdellah Ouazane · Off: Julian Brandt
  42. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ajax · On: Rayane Bounida · Off: Oscar Gloukh
  43. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Ajax · On: Yves Bissouma · Off: Davy Klaassen
  44. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Groningen · On: Tygo Land · Off: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
  45. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Groningen · On: Ryan Metu · Off: David van der Werff
  46. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Groningen · On: Wouter Prins · Off: Marco Rente
  47. 84′83′: Thom Van Bergen on the scoresheet for Groningen, making it 2–5. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  48. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Groningen · On: Nils Eggens · Off: Tika de Jonge
  49. 84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Groningen 2–5 Ajax · Thom Van Bergen
  50. 85′7 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–5 · 0–0–100
  51. 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lucas Oliveira·Rosa · Ajax
  52. 92′PENALTY MISSED · 90+1' Thom Van Bergen · Groningen
  53. FTFULL TIME Groningen 2–5 Ajax
  54. FTGroningen 2–5 Ajax · Ajax win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Ajax are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Groningen 28%, draw 25%, Ajax 46%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Groningen v AjaxBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Groningen win28%
Draw25%
Ajax win46%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 15:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenueHitachi Capital Mobility Stadion

RefereeDennis Higler

Line-ups

Groningen

4-2-3-1

Ajax

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Groningen

Ajax

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Ajax8+1215
6Groningen8+614

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Groningen

4-2-3-1

1 E. Vaessen

14 J. Schreuders

3 T. Blokzijl

5 M. Rente

33 H. Hateboer

8 T. de Jonge

24 P. Clement

17 D. van der Werff

26 T. van Bergen

11 J. Ondrejka

9 B. Willumsson

Coach · D. Lukkien

Substitutes

19 · O. Zawada

30 · P. Boevink

4 · M. Csinger

44 · Besnik Mashuku

20 · Nils Eggens

7 · T. Hernes

18 · T. Land

34 · R. Metu

42 · J. Mosselaar

16 · A. Nordin

2 · Wouter Prins

13 · L. Štubljar

Ajax

4-3-3

1 M. ter Stegen

2 Lucas Rosa

30 A. Bouwman

36 D. Janse

5 O. Wijndal

18 D. Klaassen

4 S. Amrabat

24 J. Mokio

8 J. Brandt

38 Marcos Leonardo

10 O. Gloukh

Coach · Míchel

Substitutes

99 · T. Arokodare

15 · Y. Baas

28 · Y. Bissouma

43 · Rayane Bounida

6 · T. Kehrer

68 · A. Ouazane

26 · M. Paes

51 · C. Setford

21 · Jofre Torrents

11 · V. Tsygankov

67 · Mohamed Abdalla

Our number · ajax winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 13:47 · locked at kick-off
46% The market52%
Us46%
Market52%

We make Ajax a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Groningen v Ajax1.30 – 1.73
Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 23 AugW2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 14 v 156 v 5
The market · Ajax win52% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 12 OCT 04:0318 OCT 15:05
Our probability · Ajax win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. The market has gone from 55% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Groningen win28%25%+3
Draw25%23%+2
Ajax win46%52%−6
Over 2.5 goals58%70%−12
Both teams to score60%68%−8
Over 1.5 goals81%86%−5
Over 3.5 goals36%50%−14
Groningen or draw54%48%+6
Groningen clean sheet18%––
Ajax clean sheet27%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 5.8 7.6 7.2 4.2 1 5.5 11.6 9.2 5.3 2.3 2 4.2 7.0 6.0 3.4 3 3.1 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Groningen down, Ajax across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.89
Over 2.57 of 9
Both scored6 of 9
Last meetingsAJA 2–0 GRO · GRO 3–1 AJA · AJA 2–0 GRO · GRO 2–2 AJA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 23 Aug

GRONINGEN

LLDDWW1–5 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 5–1

AJAX

WLWWDD4–0 · 1–3 · 5–1 · 5–1 · 2–2 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Feyenoord9+2123
2AZ Alkmaar8+1019
3PSV Eindhoven9+1519
4Twente8+817
5Ajax8+1215
6Groningen8+614
7Fortuna Sittard8−114
8Heerenveen9+412
9GO Ahead Eagles8+211
10Excelsior9−211
11NEC Nijmegen8−19
12Sparta Rotterdam9−69
13Cambuur8−88
14Utrecht8−118
15Telstar9−86
16ADO Den Haag9−96
17PEC Zwolle8−154
18Willem II9−172

The competition's standings before kick-off.