GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar prediction · Eredivisie

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

GO Ahead Eagles 3–2 Telstar GO AHEAD EAGLES WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said GO Ahead Eagles win~~50%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.376

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.239

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GO Ahead Eagles win at 50%.
1′Much as we predicted: GO Ahead Eagles was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–24–26
1′KICK-OFF GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar
8′7′: Søren Tengstedt on the scoresheet for GO Ahead Eagles. 0–0 · 49–25–26
8′We published GO Ahead Eagles at 50%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–15–11
8′⚽ GOAL · 7' GO Ahead Eagles 1–0 Telstar · Søren Tengstedt
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' GO Ahead Eagles win: 50% at kick-off, 74% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 74–17–9
32′We published GO Ahead Eagles at 50%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
34′Søren Tengstedt scores for GO Ahead Eagles on 33′. 1–0 · 75–17–8
34′We published GO Ahead Eagles at 50%. Our model now makes it 92%. 2–0 · 92–6–2
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' GO Ahead Eagles 2–0 Telstar · Søren Tengstedt
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' GO Ahead Eagles win: 50% at kick-off, 92% now
45′HALF-TIME GO Ahead Eagles 2–0 Telstar
46′SECOND HALF GO Ahead Eagles 2–0 Telstar
49′48′: Tyrone Owusu on the scoresheet for Telstar, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 76–18–6
49′⚽ GOAL · 48' GO Ahead Eagles 2–1 Telstar · Tyrone Owusu
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' GO Ahead Eagles win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
53′We published GO Ahead Eagles at 50%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
63′We published GO Ahead Eagles at 50%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–17–4
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' GO Ahead Eagles win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Thibo Baeten · Off: Dean Ruben James
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Tomas Galvez · Off: Mathis Suray
68′Evert Linthorst scores for GO Ahead Eagles on 67′. 2–1 · 82–16–3
68′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 97–2–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' GO Ahead Eagles 3–1 Telstar · Evert Linthorst (assist Tomas Galvez)
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' GO Ahead Eagles win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Telstar · On: Isaiah Ahmed · Off: Noach Shenkman
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Telstar · On: Rui Mendes · Off: Ar'jany Martha
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Telstar · On: Rojendro Oudsten · Off: Gabi Caschili
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson · Off: Oskar Siira Sivertsen
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Telstar · On: Jelani Seedorf · Off: Nökkvi Þeyr Þórisson
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Telstar · On: Harrie Kuster · Off: Nils Rossen
83′We published GO Ahead Eagles at 50%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' GO Ahead Eagles win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Julius Dirksen · GO Ahead Eagles
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Robbin Weijenberg · Off: Søren Tengstedt
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Yassir Salah Rahmouni · Off: Melle Meulensteen
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Harrie Kuster · Telstar
90′Full time, 3–2. We called GO Ahead Eagles at 50% — that one lands. 3–2 · 100–0–0
93′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 98–2–0
93′Sem valk scores for Telstar on 90′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 98–2–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' GO Ahead Eagles 3–2 Telstar
FTFULL TIME GO Ahead Eagles 3–2 Telstar
FTGO Ahead Eagles 3–2 Telstar · GO Ahead Eagles win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: GO Ahead Eagles 50%, draw 24%, Telstar 26%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on GO Ahead Eagles v TelstarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

GO Ahead Eagles win50%

Draw24%

Telstar win26%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueDe Adelaarshorst

RefereeRobin Hensgens

Line-ups

GO Ahead Eagles

4-2-3-1

Telstar

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

GO Ahead Eagles

Telstar

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 17 Oct · Eredivisie

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	−1	11
16	Telstar	9	−8	6

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

GO Ahead Eagles

4-2-3-1

1 K. Haug

2 A. Sampsted

26 J. Dirksen

4 J. Kramer

5 D. James

21 M. Meulensteen

8 E. Linthorst

11 O. Sivertsen

10 S. Tengstedt

17 M. Suray

16 V. Edvardsen

Coach · J. Oosting

Substitutes

24 · J. Cillessen

25 · G. van Zwam

27 · Tomas Galvez

29 · E. Flataker

6 · T. Jukić

18 · R. Margaret

3 · G. Nauber

34 · Y. Rahmouni

9 · S. Sigurðarson

33 · N. Verdoni

15 · R. Weijenberg

23 · T. Baeten

Telstar

4-2-3-1

1 R. Koeman

18 G. Caschili

16 S. Valk

4 A. Soualhia

43 M. Peersman

17 N. Rossen

23 N. Shenkman

42 A. Martha

10 T. Owusu

27 P. Brouwer

11 N. Þórisson

Coach · H. Brugge

Substitutes

2 · J. Hardeveld

6 · Isaiah Ahmed

5 · P. Aning

8 · E. Demircan

14 · H. Kuster

7 · Rui Mendes

13 · Finn Mulder

28 · R. Oudsten

20 · D. Reiziger

9 · Jelani Seedorf

21 · F. Turay

Our number · go ahead eagles winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:16 · locked at kick-off

50% The market60%

Us50%

~~Market~~60%

We make GO Ahead Eagles a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · GO Ahead Eagles v Telstar~~1.88 – 1.31

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W0 D3 L3

~~Table places · points 11 v 6~~9 v 16

~~The market · GO Ahead Eagles win~~60% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · GO Ahead Eagles win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 50% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GO Ahead Eagles win	50%	60%	−10
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Telstar win	26%	18%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	61%	70%	−9
Both teams to score	62%	66%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	83%	86%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	50%	−11
GO Ahead Eagles or draw	74%	82%	−8
GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet	27%	–	–
Telstar clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.1 4.7 3.6 1 7.1 10.9 6.6 2.9 2 7.3 9.3 6.1 2.7 3 4.6 5.8 3.8 4 2.2 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GO Ahead Eagles down, Telstar across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,680 Eredivisie matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.3% of games this season, across 81 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GO Ahead Eagles at home: 2.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Telstar away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.88 goals for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.31 for Telstar. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 23 Oct 18:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GOA 1–1 TEL · TEL 2–1 GOA · TEL 4–2 GOA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 29 Aug

GO AHEAD EAGLES

LDDDDL2–5 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 1–4

TELSTAR

DLDLDL2–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Groningen	9	+3	14
8	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	9	−1	11
10	Excelsior	9	−2	11
11	Utrecht	9	−10	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
14	Cambuur	9	−8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	9	−12	7
16	Telstar	9	−8	6
17	ADO Den Haag	9	−9	6
18	Willem II	9	−17	2