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GO Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam

GO Ahead Eagles

3–3Full time

Sparta Rotterdam

Eredivisie · SAT 10 OCT · De Adelaarshorst

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 18:06

GO Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam GO AHEAD EAGLES WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said GO Ahead Eagles win~~51%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.885

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.958

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 42 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said GO Ahead Eagles win at 51%.
2′KICK-OFF GO Ahead Eagles v Sparta Rotterdam
4′Much as we predicted: GO Ahead Eagles was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
22′23′ and it is 0–1: Milan Zonneveld on the scoresheet for Sparta Rotterdam. 0–1 · 23–25–53
22′⚽ GOAL · 23' GO Ahead Eagles 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam · Milan Zonneveld
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' GO Ahead Eagles win: 51% at kick-off, 23% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Sparta Rotterdam win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was GO Ahead Eagles win 23%)
28′We said GO Ahead Eagles at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–25–54
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' GO Ahead Eagles win: 51% at kick-off, 21% now
32′We said GO Ahead Eagles at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
36′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 18–26–56
45′SECOND HALF GO Ahead Eagles 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Yassir Salah Rahmouni · Off: Evert Linthorst Corrected
46′⚽ GOAL · 23' GO Ahead Eagles 0–1 Sparta Rotterdam · Milan Zonneveld (assist Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' GO Ahead Eagles win: 51% at kick-off, 13% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Sparta Rotterdam win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was GO Ahead Eagles win 13%)
48′We said GO Ahead Eagles at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' GO Ahead Eagles win: 51% at kick-off, 13% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Sparta Rotterdam win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was GO Ahead Eagles win 13%)
49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi · Sparta Rotterdam
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam · Mathis Suray
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Thibo Baeten · Off: Dean Ruben James Corrected
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Cedric Hatenboer · Sparta Rotterdam
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' GO Ahead Eagles 1–1 Sparta Rotterdam · Milan Zonneveld
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' GO Ahead Eagles 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam · Milan Zonneveld
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' GO Ahead Eagles 2–1 Sparta Rotterdam · Lushendry Martes
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam · Lushendry Martes
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sparta Rotterdam · On: Teo Quintero León · Off: Jens Toornstra Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Sparta Rotterdam · On: Casper Terho · Off: Robin van Cruijsen Corrected
67′⚽ GOAL · 23' GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam · Milan Zonneveld (assist Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi)
67′SUBSTITUTION · 45' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Yassir Salah Rahmouni · Off: Evert Linthorst Corrected
67′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi · Sparta Rotterdam
67′⚽ GOAL · 50' GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam · Mathis Suray (assist Dean Ruben James)
67′SUBSTITUTION · 57' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Thibo Baeten · Off: Dean Ruben James Corrected
67′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Cedric Hatenboer · Sparta Rotterdam
67′⚽ GOAL · 60' GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam · Milan Zonneveld
67′⚽ GOAL · 61' GO Ahead Eagles 2–2 Sparta Rotterdam · Lushendry Martes (assist Isaac Achmed Koroma Junior Babadi)
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sparta Rotterdam · On: Casper Terho · Off: Robin van Cruijsen Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Sparta Rotterdam · On: Teo Quintero León · Off: Jens Toornstra Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 74' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Oskar Siira Sivertsen · Off: Stefán Ingi Sigurdarson Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Tino Jukic · Off: Alfons Sampsted Corrected
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' GO Ahead Eagles 3–2 Sparta Rotterdam · Lushendry Martes
74′⚽ GOAL · 75' GO Ahead Eagles 3–2 Sparta Rotterdam · Søren Tengstedt
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Sparta Rotterdam · On: Andrej Kostić · Off: Bruno Martins Indi Corrected
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Lushendry Martes · Sparta Rotterdam
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' GO Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam · Søren Tengstedt
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' GO Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam · Casper Terho
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' GO Ahead Eagles · On: Erik Flataker Hovden · Off: Søren Tengstedt Corrected
FTFULL TIME GO Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam
FTGO Ahead Eagles 3–3 Sparta Rotterdam · GO Ahead Eagles win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

GO Ahead Eagles win51%

Draw25%

Sparta Rotterdam win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:30

Venue · De Adelaarshorst

Referee · Jeroen Manschot

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

GO Ahead Eagles

4-2-3-1

1 K. Haug

2 A. Sampsted

25 G. van Zwam

4 J. Kramer

5 D. James

21 M. Meulensteen

8 E. Linthorst

10 S. Tengstedt

16 V. Edvardsen

17 M. Suray

9 S. I. Sigurdarson

Coach · Joseph Oosting

Substitutes

33 · N. Verdoni

30 · T. Hulleman

3 · G. Nauber

6 · T. Jukic

20 · E. Waayers

27 · T. Galvez

34 · Y. Salah Rahmouni

15 · R. Weijenberg

18 · R. Margaret

23 · T. Baeten

29 · E. Flataker

11 · O. Sivertsen

Sparta Rotterdam

5-4-1

1 M. Brouwer

2 L. Martes

3 M. Young

6 N. Verschuren

4 B. Martins Indi

5 B. Kuipers

7 R. van Cruijsen

8 J. Toornstra

10 C. Hatenboer

11 I. Babadi

9 M. Zonneveld

Coach · Rogier Meijer

Substitutes

20 · F. Bednarek

30 · P. Kuiper

12 · B. Reith

14 · T. Quintero

15 · G. Vianello

18 · A. Roaldsoy

16 · J. Baas

17 · C. Terho

22 · J. Ideho

19 · A. Kostic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

GO Ahead Eagles

4-2-3-1

1 K. Haug

2 A. Sampsted

25 G. van Zwam

4 J. Kramer

5 D. James

21 M. Meulensteen

8 E. Linthorst

10 S. Tengstedt

16 V. Edvardsen

17 M. Suray

9 S. I. Sigurdarson

Coach · Joseph Oosting

Substitutes

33 · N. Verdoni

30 · T. Hulleman

3 · G. Nauber

6 · T. Jukic

20 · E. Waayers

27 · T. Galvez

34 · Y. Salah Rahmouni

15 · R. Weijenberg

18 · R. Margaret

23 · T. Baeten

29 · E. Flataker

11 · O. Sivertsen

Sparta Rotterdam

5-4-1

1 M. Brouwer

2 L. Martes

3 M. Young

6 N. Verschuren

4 B. Martins Indi

5 B. Kuipers

7 R. van Cruijsen

8 J. Toornstra

10 C. Hatenboer

11 I. Babadi

9 M. Zonneveld

Coach · Rogier Meijer

Substitutes

20 · F. Bednarek

30 · P. Kuiper

12 · B. Reith

14 · T. Quintero

15 · G. Vianello

18 · A. Roaldsoy

16 · J. Baas

17 · C. Terho

22 · J. Ideho

19 · A. Kostic

Our number · go ahead eagles winPublished 10 Oct 15:43

51% The market56%

Us51%

~~Market~~56%

We make GO Ahead Eagles a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · go ahead eagles win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 54% to 56% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
GO Ahead Eagles win	51%	56%	−5
Draw	25%	23%	+2
Sparta Rotterdam win	25%	21%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	68%	−10
Both teams to score	59%	67%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	81%	86%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	36%	49%	−13
GO Ahead Eagles or draw	75%	79%	−3
GO Ahead Eagles clean sheet	30%	–	–
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.9 5.1 3.6 1 8.1 11.4 6.4 2.6 2 8.0 9.5 5.7 2.3 3 4.8 5.7 3.5 4 2.2 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+GO Ahead Eagles down, Sparta Rotterdam across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,663 Eredivisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

GO Ahead Eagles at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Sparta Rotterdam away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.81 goals for GO Ahead Eagles, 1.21 for Sparta Rotterdam. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:07. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPA 2–2 GOA · GOA 0–3 SPA · GOA 1–0 SPA · SPA 1–2 GOA

Form · last six in Eredivisie

GO AHEAD EAGLES

DWLDDD2–2 · 3–1 · 2–5 · 3–3 · 1–1 · 1–1

SPARTA ROTTERDAM

WDLDLL3–1 · 3–3 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–4 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	+16	19
2	AZ Alkmaar	7	+12	19
3	Feyenoord	7	+18	17
4	Twente	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	−1	13
7	Excelsior	7	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	8	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	−1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	−7	5
13	Telstar	7	−7	5
14	Cambuur	7	−9	5
15	Utrecht	7	−13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	−14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	−10	2
18	Willem II	7	−14	2