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Fortuna Sittard v Twente

Fortuna Sittard

1–1Full time

Twente

Eredivisie · SAT 10 OCT · Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Twente TWENTE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Twente win~~51%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.886

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.128

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Twente win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: Twente was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 25–23–52
4′Much as we predicted: Twente was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 25–24–51
10′Anthony Descotte scores for Fortuna Sittard on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 50–24–26
13′Anthony Descotte scores for Fortuna Sittard on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 50–24–26
14′Anthony Descotte scores for Fortuna Sittard on 9′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 50–24–25
17′We said Twente at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 51–25–24
24′We said Twente at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 1–0 · 53–25–22
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 54–26–20
33′We said Twente at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 55–26–19
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Twente win 22%)
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Twente win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Twente win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Twente win 22%)
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Twente win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Twente win 22%)
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Twente win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Twente win 22%)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Twente win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Twente win 22%)
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Twente win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Twente win 22%)
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Twente win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Twente win 22%)
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Twente win: 51% at kick-off, 22% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Fortuna Sittard win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Twente win 22%)
45′HALF-TIME Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Twente
45′SECOND HALF Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Twente
54′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Twente · On: Kristian Nokkvi Hlynsson · Off: Marko Pjaca Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Twente · On: Thomas Van den Belt · Off: Daouda Weidmann Corrected
74′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Bart van Rooij · Twente
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Fortuna Sittard · On: Kristoffer Peterson · Off: Lequincio Zeefuik Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Twente · On: Lucas hesselink of vennegoor · Off: Daan Rots Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Fortuna Sittard · On: Sven Simons · Off: Mohammed Ihattaren Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Fortuna Sittard · On: Siebe Wylin · Off: Ivo Pinto Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' Fortuna Sittard · On: Daley Sinkgraven · Off: Shiloh 't Zand Corrected
FTFULL TIME Fortuna Sittard 1–1 Twente
FTFortuna Sittard 1–1 Twente · Twente win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Fortuna Sittard win24%

Draw25%

Twente win51%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Fortuna Sittard Stadion

Referee · Robin Hensgens

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Fortuna Sittard

4-3-3

31 M. Branderhorst

12 I. Pinto

6 S. van Ottele

3 R. Guth

28 J. Hubner

20 E. Michut

23 P. Brittijn

22 S. Zand

52 M. Ihattaren

25 L. Zeefuik

9 A. Descotte

Coach · Danny Buijs

Substitutes

33 · Kaylen

1 · L. Koopmans

2 · S. Wylin

24 · D. Sinkgraven

15 · N. de Groot

14 · S. Simons

38 · M. Gbemou

39 · G. Buyukhan

7 · K. Peterson

10 · O. Romeny

Twente

4-2-3-1

16 J. Drommel

28 B. van Rooij

3 R. Propper

4 R. Nijstad

29 A. Adelgaard

6 R. Zerrouki

8 D. Weidmann

11 D. Rots

10 Y. Taha

7 M. Pjaca

9 W. Weghorst

Coach · John van den Brom

Substitutes

31 · Y. Gerritsen

22 · R. Pasveer

24 · K. Kurowski

14 · K. Hlynsson

2 · M. Rosiak

20 · T. van den Belt

18 · J. Bawuah

37 · N. Unuvar

25 · L. Vennegoor of Hesselink

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Fortuna Sittard

4-3-3

31 M. Branderhorst

12 I. Pinto

6 S. van Ottele

3 R. Guth

28 J. Hubner

20 E. Michut

23 P. Brittijn

22 S. Zand

52 M. Ihattaren

25 L. Zeefuik

9 A. Descotte

Coach · Danny Buijs

Substitutes

33 · Kaylen

1 · L. Koopmans

2 · S. Wylin

24 · D. Sinkgraven

15 · N. de Groot

14 · S. Simons

38 · M. Gbemou

39 · G. Buyukhan

7 · K. Peterson

10 · O. Romeny

Twente

4-2-3-1

16 J. Drommel

28 B. van Rooij

3 R. Propper

4 R. Nijstad

29 A. Adelgaard

6 R. Zerrouki

8 D. Weidmann

11 D. Rots

10 Y. Taha

7 M. Pjaca

9 W. Weghorst

Coach · John van den Brom

Substitutes

31 · Y. Gerritsen

22 · R. Pasveer

24 · K. Kurowski

14 · K. Hlynsson

2 · M. Rosiak

20 · T. van den Belt

18 · J. Bawuah

37 · N. Unuvar

25 · L. Vennegoor of Hesselink

Our number · twente winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

51% The market67%

Us51%

~~Market~~67%

We make Twente a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · twente win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 66% to 67% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Sittard win	24%	15%	+10
Draw	25%	19%	+6
Twente win	51%	67%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	57%	70%	−13
Both teams to score	58%	62%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	86%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	35%	49%	−15
Fortuna Sittard or draw	49%	33%	+16
Fortuna Sittard clean sheet	17%	–	–
Twente clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.1 8.5 8.3 5.0 2.3 1 5.2 11.6 9.6 5.7 2.6 2 3.6 6.3 5.6 3.3 3 2.5 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Sittard down, Twente across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,663 Eredivisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Twente away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Fortuna Sittard, 1.80 for Twente. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOR 1–2 TWE · TWE 3–2 FOR · TWE 1–1 FOR · FOR 1–2 TWE

Form · last six in Eredivisie

FORTUNA SITTARD

WLWWLW3–1 · 0–2 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 1–5 · 1–0

TWENTE

WWDWWW3–1 · 4–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	+16	19
2	AZ Alkmaar	7	+12	19
3	Feyenoord	7	+18	17
4	Twente	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	−1	13
7	Excelsior	7	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	8	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	−1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	−7	5
13	Telstar	7	−7	5
14	Cambuur	7	−9	5
15	Utrecht	7	−13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	−14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	−10	2
18	Willem II	7	−14	2