Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior prediction · Eredivisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Fortuna SittardDrawExcelsior

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Fortuna Sittard 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fortuna Sittard are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fortuna Sittard 43%, draw 25%, Excelsior 32%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Fortuna Sittard v ExcelsiorBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Fortuna Sittard win43%

Draw25%

Excelsior win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:15

RoundMatchday 10

VenueFortuna Sittard Stadion

RefereeIngmar Oostrom

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fortuna Sittard

Excelsior

7Days since last match9

Last match: 18 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 16 Oct · Eredivisie

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
11	Excelsior	9	−2	11

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fortuna sittard winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make Fortuna Sittard a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fortuna Sittard v Excelsior~~1.70 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 11~~6 v 11

~~The market · Fortuna Sittard win~~40% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Fortuna Sittard win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fortuna Sittard win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Excelsior win	32%	34%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%	0
Both teams to score	63%	63%	0
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	40%	−2
Fortuna Sittard or draw	68%	66%	+2
Fortuna Sittard clean sheet	24%	–	–
Excelsior clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.3 5.5 4.5 2.2 1 6.6 11.3 7.5 3.6 2 6.3 8.9 6.3 3.1 3 3.6 5.0 3.6 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fortuna Sittard down, Excelsior across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,681 Eredivisie matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.6% of games this season, across 82 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fortuna Sittard at home: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Excelsior away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Fortuna Sittard, 1.44 for Excelsior. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FOR 2–1 EXC · EXC 1–0 FOR · FOR 5–2 EXC · EXC 2–2 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 28 Aug

FORTUNA SITTARD

WWLWDD3–2 · 3–2 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

EXCELSIOR

WDLDLL3–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–5 · 0–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Groningen	9	+3	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
9	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
10	Utrecht	10	−10	12
11	Excelsior	9	−2	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
14	Cambuur	9	−8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	−12	8
16	ADO Den Haag	9	−9	6
17	Telstar	10	−9	6
18	Willem II	9	−17	2