Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard prediction · Eredivisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FeyenoordDrawFortuna Sittard

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Feyenoord 75%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Feyenoord are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Feyenoord 75%, draw 16%, Fortuna Sittard 10%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Feyenoord v Fortuna SittardBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Feyenoord win75%

Draw16%

Fortuna Sittard win10%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 11

VenueDe Kuip

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Feyenoord

Fortuna Sittard

10Days since last match13

Last match: 21 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 18 Oct · Eredivisie

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · feyenoord winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

75% The market83%

Us75%

~~Market~~83%

We make Feyenoord a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Feyenoord v Fortuna Sittard~~2.73 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 23 v 15~~1 v 6

~~The market · Feyenoord win~~83% · ours 75%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Feyenoord win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Feyenoord win	75%	83%	−8
Draw	16%	11%	+5
Fortuna Sittard win	10%	6%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	70%	76%	−6
Both teams to score	56%	53%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	88%	90%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	49%	58%	−9
Feyenoord or draw	90%	94%	−4
Feyenoord clean sheet	40%	–	–
Fortuna Sittard clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.7%

0123450 3.3 1 6.7 7.1 3.0 2 9.7 8.8 4.0 3 8.7 7.9 3.6 4 6.0 5.4 2.5 5 3.3 3.0

under 2% 5% 12%+Feyenoord down, Fortuna Sittard across0–5 goals a side shown (93.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,684 Eredivisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.3% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Feyenoord at home: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Fortuna Sittard away: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.73 goals for Feyenoord, 0.91 for Fortuna Sittard. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FOR 1–2 FEY · FEY 2–0 FOR · FOR 0–2 FEY · FEY 1–1 FOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 28 Aug

FEYENOORD

DWWWWW2–2 · 3–1 · 7–0 · 5–0 · 2–0 · 4–3

FORTUNA SITTARD

WWLWDD3–2 · 3–2 · 1–5 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Heerenveen	10	+5	15
8	Groningen	9	+3	14
9	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
10	Cambuur	10	−3	12
11	Utrecht	10	−10	12
12	Excelsior	9	−2	11
13	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
14	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	−12	8
16	Telstar	10	−9	6
17	ADO Den Haag	10	−10	6
18	Willem II	10	−22	2