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Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar

Feyenoord

2–0Full time

AZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie · SAT 10 OCT · Stadion Feijenoord

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:31

Feyenoord 2–0 AZ Alkmaar FEYENOORD WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Feyenoord win~~55%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.300

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.305

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Feyenoord win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Feyenoord 55% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 56–21–23
1′KICK-OFF Feyenoord v AZ Alkmaar
11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Lewis Schouten · AZ Alkmaar
12′We said Feyenoord at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–8
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Feyenoord 1–0 AZ Alkmaar
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Feyenoord win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Feyenoord win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
13′We said Feyenoord at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–14–8
13′Nacho Ferri scores for Feyenoord on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–14–8
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Feyenoord win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Feyenoord win: 55% at kick-off, 54% now
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Feyenoord 1–0 AZ Alkmaar · Nacho Ferri
23′Nacho Ferri scores for Feyenoord on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–15–8
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Ro Zangelo Daal · AZ Alkmaar
31′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 77–16–7
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Feyenoord win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Feyenoord win: 55% at kick-off, 77% now
45′SECOND HALF Feyenoord 1–0 AZ Alkmaar
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Oussama Targhalline · Feyenoord
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Feyenoord 2–0 AZ Alkmaar · Nacho Ferri
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Feyenoord 2–0 AZ Alkmaar · Javi López
66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Wouter Goes · AZ Alkmaar
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' AZ Alkmaar · On: Weslley Pinto Batista · Off: Ro Zangelo Daal
67′SUBSTITUTION · 68' AZ Alkmaar · On: Denso Kasius · Off: Elijah Dijkstra
77′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Feyenoord · On: Tobias van den Elshout · Off: Gjivai Zechiel
79′SUBSTITUTION · 80' AZ Alkmaar · On: Bendegúz Kovács · Off: Jordy Clasie
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Feyenoord · On: Gaoussou Kyassou Diarra · Off: Nacho Ferri
FTFULL TIME Feyenoord 2–0 AZ Alkmaar
FTFeyenoord 2–0 AZ Alkmaar · Feyenoord win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Feyenoord win55%

Draw23%

AZ Alkmaar win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:45

Venue · Stadion Feijenoord

Referee · Danny Makkelie

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Feyenoord

4-3-3

1 T. Ernst

26 G. Read

6 J. St. Juste

35 M. Marmol

16 J. Lopez

8 G. Zechiel

34 C. Vanhoutte

28 O. Targhalline

23 A. Hadj Moussa

19 Nacho

10 L. Valente

Coach · Giovanni van Bronckhorst

Substitutes

39 · L. Bossin

33 · F. Kastenmeier

20 · M. Deijl

32 · T. Wessels

24 · T. Kraaijeveld

65 · D. Slory

50 · T. Delianidis

14 · S. Steijn

22 · T. van den Elshout

36 · J. Zinhagel

27 · G. Diarra

57 · J. Schaken

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3

28 J. De Busser

22 E. Dijkstra

3 W. Goes

4 L. Schouten

5 M. Chavez Garcia

8 J. Clasie

14 C. Stengs

6 P. Koopmeiners

24 A. Oufkir

9 M. Meerdink

11 R. Daal

Coach · Leeroy Echteld

Substitutes

1 · R. Owusu-Oduro

29 · W. Hoedt

30 · D. Kasius

2 · S. Maikuma

31 · R. Ichihara

34 · M. de Wit

21 · D. Kwakman

17 · V. Byskov

45 · J. Bergraaf

7 · Weslley Patati

27 · W. Bouziane

18 · B. Kovacs

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Feyenoord

4-3-3

1 T. Ernst

26 G. Read

6 J. St. Juste

35 M. Marmol

16 J. Lopez

8 G. Zechiel

34 C. Vanhoutte

28 O. Targhalline

23 A. Hadj Moussa

19 Nacho

10 L. Valente

Coach · Giovanni van Bronckhorst

Substitutes

39 · L. Bossin

33 · F. Kastenmeier

20 · M. Deijl

32 · T. Wessels

24 · T. Kraaijeveld

65 · D. Slory

50 · T. Delianidis

14 · S. Steijn

22 · T. van den Elshout

36 · J. Zinhagel

27 · G. Diarra

57 · J. Schaken

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3

28 J. De Busser

22 E. Dijkstra

3 W. Goes

4 L. Schouten

5 M. Chavez Garcia

8 J. Clasie

14 C. Stengs

6 P. Koopmeiners

24 A. Oufkir

9 M. Meerdink

11 R. Daal

Coach · Leeroy Echteld

Substitutes

1 · R. Owusu-Oduro

29 · W. Hoedt

30 · D. Kasius

2 · S. Maikuma

31 · R. Ichihara

34 · M. de Wit

21 · D. Kwakman

17 · V. Byskov

45 · J. Bergraaf

7 · Weslley Patati

27 · W. Bouziane

18 · B. Kovacs

Our number · feyenoord winPublished 10 Oct 17:54

55% The market55%

Us55%

~~Market~~55%

We make Feyenoord a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · feyenoord win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Feyenoord win	55%	55%	0
Draw	23%	23%	0
AZ Alkmaar win	22%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	63%	67%	−4
Both teams to score	62%	66%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	47%	−6
Feyenoord or draw	78%	78%	0
Feyenoord clean sheet	29%	–	–
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.6 4.0 2.9 1 7.0 10.2 5.8 2.4 2 7.8 9.5 5.9 2.4 3 5.3 6.5 4.0 4 2.8 3.4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Feyenoord down, AZ Alkmaar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,663 Eredivisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Feyenoord at home: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). AZ Alkmaar away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Feyenoord, 1.24 for AZ Alkmaar. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 17:32. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FEY 1–1 AZA · AZA 3–3 FEY · AZA 0–1 FEY · FEY 3–2 AZA

Form · last six in Eredivisie

FEYENOORD

DWDWWW2–2 · 5–2 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 7–0 · 5–0

AZ ALKMAAR

WWWWDW4–1 · 2–0 · 5–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	+16	19
2	AZ Alkmaar	7	+12	19
3	Feyenoord	7	+18	17
4	Twente	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	−1	13
7	Excelsior	7	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	8	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	−1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	−7	5
13	Telstar	7	−7	5
14	Cambuur	7	−9	5
15	Utrecht	7	−13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	−14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	−10	2
18	Willem II	7	−14	2