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Excelsior v Groningen

Excelsior

1–5Full time

Groningen

Eredivisie · SUN 11 OCT · Van Donge & De Roo Stadion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Excelsior 1–5 Groningen EXCELSIOR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Excelsior win~~42%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.711

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.596

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Excelsior win at 42%.
0′Much as we predicted: Excelsior was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
2′Much as we predicted: Excelsior was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–24–33
6′We said Excelsior at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–22–57
7′7′ and it is 0–1: Marco Rente on the scoresheet for Groningen. 0–1 · 21–22–57
7′THE CALL SWINGS · 7' Groningen win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Excelsior win 21%)
8′We said Excelsior at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–22–58
9′7′ and it is 0–1: Marco Rente on the scoresheet for Groningen. 0–1 · 20–22–58
14′We said Excelsior at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–58
17′We said Excelsior at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' David van der Werff · Groningen
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Excelsior win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Groningen win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Excelsior win 16%)
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Excelsior win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Groningen win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Excelsior win 16%)
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Excelsior win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Groningen win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Excelsior win 16%)
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Excelsior 1–1 Groningen · Marco Rente
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Excelsior win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Groningen win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Excelsior win 16%)
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' Excelsior 1–1 Groningen · Irakli Yegoian
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Excelsior win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Groningen win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Excelsior win 16%)
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Excelsior 1–2 Groningen · Irakli Yegoian
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Excelsior win: 42% at kick-off, 16% now
37′THE CALL SWINGS · 37' Groningen win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Excelsior win 16%)
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Excelsior 1–2 Groningen · Stijn van Gassel
45′SECOND HALF Excelsior 1–2 Groningen
47′HALF-TIME Excelsior 1–2 Groningen
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Excelsior 1–3 Groningen · Stijn van Gassel
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Excelsior 1–3 Groningen · Thom Van Bergen
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Excelsior · On: Kasey Bos · Off: Simon Janssen
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Excelsior · On: Mario Domínguez Franco · Off: David Garden
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Excelsior · On: Daniel van Vianen · Off: Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Excelsior · On: Valentin Sulzbacher · Off: Eric da Silva Moreira
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Excelsior 1–4 Groningen · Thom Van Bergen
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Groningen · On: Tygo Land · Off: Jacob Ondrejka
66′⚽ GOAL · 67' Excelsior 1–4 Groningen · Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
71′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Groningen · On: Mark Csinger · Off: Hans Hateboer
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Tygo Land · Groningen
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Excelsior · On: Alireza Jahanbakhsh · Off: Aymen sliti
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Groningen · On: Nils Eggens · Off: Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Groningen · On: Ryan Metu · Off: Thom Van Bergen
85′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Groningen · On: Oskar Zawada · Off: David van der Werff
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Excelsior 1–5 Groningen · Brynjólfur Darri Willumsson
94′⚽ GOAL · 95' Excelsior 1–5 Groningen · Marco Rente
FTFULL TIME Excelsior 1–5 Groningen
FTExcelsior 1–5 Groningen · Excelsior win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Excelsior win42%

Draw26%

Groningen win32%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:45

VenueVan Donge & De Roo Stadion

RefereeRichard Martens

Line-ups

Excelsior

4-3-3

Groningen

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Excelsior

Groningen

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Excelsior	7	+6	11
9	Groningen	7	+2	11

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Excelsior

4-3-3

1 S. van Gassel

2 E. da Silva Moreira

4 C. Widell

14 J. Plug

15 S. Janssen

8 I. Yegoian

3 R. Meissen

20 L. Hartjes

7 A. Sliti

19 D. Garden

30 A. Thorsteinsson

Coach · Ruben den Uil

Substitutes

16 · C. Biai

24 · G. Cairo

6 · D. van Vianen

18 · V. Sulzbacher

21 · I. Silva Timas

9 · M. Dominguez

11 · A. Jahanbakhsh

28 · N. Groen

12 · K. Bos

22 · O. Turay

Groningen

4-2-3-1

1 E. Vaessen

14 J. Schreuders

3 T. Blokzijl

5 M. Rente

33 H. Hateboer

8 T. de Jonge

24 P. Clement

17 D. van der Werff

26 T. van Bergen

11 J. Ondrejka

9 B. Willumsson

Coach · Dick Lukkien

Substitutes

30 · P. Boevink

13 · L. Stubljar

4 · M. Csinger

2 · W. Prins

42 · J. Mosselaar

16 · A. Nordin

18 · T. Land

53 · J. Hall

19 · O. Zawada

20 · N. Eggens

34 · R. Metu

Our number · excelsior winPublished 11 Oct 15:49

42% The market37%

Us42%

~~Market~~37%

We make Excelsior a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Excelsior win	42%	37%	+6
Draw	26%	26%	0
Groningen win	32%	37%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	58%	61%	−3
Both teams to score	61%	65%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	82%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	41%	−6
Excelsior or draw	68%	63%	+5
Excelsior clean sheet	25%	–	–
Groningen clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.0 6.0 4.7 2.2 1 7.2 11.9 7.6 3.5 2 6.5 8.9 6.1 2.8 3 3.6 4.8 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Excelsior down, Groningen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,667 Eredivisie matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 72.1% of games this season, across 68 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Excelsior at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Groningen away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.63 goals for Excelsior, 1.38 for Groningen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:27. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~GRO 2–3 EXC · EXC 0–2 GRO · GRO 3–0 EXC · EXC 1–0 GRO

Form · last six in Eredivisie

EXCELSIOR

LWWDLD1–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

GRONINGEN

WLLDDW4–1 · 1–5 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	8	+20	20
2	PSV Eindhoven	8	+16	19
3	AZ Alkmaar	8	+10	19
4	Twente	8	+8	17
5	Ajax	8	+12	15
6	Fortuna Sittard	8	−1	14
7	Excelsior	7	+6	11
8	GO Ahead Eagles	8	+2	11
9	Groningen	7	+2	11
10	Heerenveen	8	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	−1	9
12	Sparta Rotterdam	8	−7	6
13	Telstar	7	−7	5
14	Cambuur	7	−9	5
15	Utrecht	7	−13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	−14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	−10	2
18	Willem II	7	−14	2