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Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar

Cambuur

2–2Full time

AZ Alkmaar

Eredivisie · SUN 18 OCT · Kooi Stadion

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Cambuur 2–2 AZ Alkmaar AZ ALKMAAR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AZ Alkmaar win~~57%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.966

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.079

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AZ Alkmaar win at 57%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AZ Alkmaar 57% before kick-off, 56% now. 0–0 · 21–23–56
1′KICK-OFF Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar
8′Nicolas Binder scores for Cambuur on 7′. 0–0 · 21–24–55
10′We said AZ Alkmaar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–0 · 45–23–32
10′⚽ GOAL · 7' Cambuur 1–0 AZ Alkmaar · Nicolas Binder (assist Jason Ceka)
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' AZ Alkmaar win: 57% at kick-off, 32% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Cambuur win is now our likeliest result at 45% (was AZ Alkmaar win 32%)
11′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Lewis Schouten · AZ Alkmaar
18′We said AZ Alkmaar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 47–24–29
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' AZ Alkmaar win: 57% at kick-off, 27% now
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Devid Eugene Bouah · Cambuur
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Cambuur 1–1 AZ Alkmaar
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' AZ Alkmaar win: 57% at kick-off, 51% now
26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' AZ Alkmaar win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Cambuur win 21%)
27′Ro Zangelo Daal scores for AZ Alkmaar on 26′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–28–51
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' AZ Alkmaar win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
40′Ilyes Hamache scores for Cambuur on 39′. 1–1 · 21–32–47
41′We said AZ Alkmaar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 2–1 · 53–26–20
41′⚽ GOAL · 39' Cambuur 2–1 AZ Alkmaar · Ilyes Hamache (assist Billy van Duijl)
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' AZ Alkmaar win: 57% at kick-off, 20% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Cambuur win is now our likeliest result at 53% (was AZ Alkmaar win 20%)
43′We said AZ Alkmaar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 54–27–19
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' AZ Alkmaar win: 57% at kick-off, 17% now
54′We said AZ Alkmaar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 2–1 · 59–27–14
55′Cambuur are down to ten from 53′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 59–27–14
55′🟥 RED CARD · 53' Devid Eugene Bouah · Cambuur
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Cambuur · On: Rik Mulders · Off: Jason Ceka
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Ayoub Oufkir · AZ Alkmaar
64′We said AZ Alkmaar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 65–26–9
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' AZ Alkmaar · On: Mees de Wit · Off: Mateo Chávez
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' AZ Alkmaar · On: Bendegúz Kovács · Off: Ayoub Oufkir
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' AZ Alkmaar · On: Valdemar Byskov Andreasen · Off: Jordy Clasie
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' AZ Alkmaar · On: Dave Kwakman · Off: Wouter Goes
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' AZ Alkmaar win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
73′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 2–1 · 73–22–5
74′We said AZ Alkmaar at 57%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 74–21–4
76′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Cambuur · On: Sami Bouhoudane · Off: Nicolas Binder
82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Johan Plat · Cambuur
84′AZ Alkmaar level it on 83′ through Mexx Meerdink. 2–2. 2–2 · 7–81–12
84′Cambuur have had 11 attempts to 5 and it is still 2–2. 2–2 · 7–81–12
84′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Thijs Jansen · Cambuur
84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Cambuur 2–2 AZ Alkmaar · Mexx Meerdink
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' AZ Alkmaar win: 57% at kick-off, 12% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 81% (was Cambuur win 7%)
85′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 6–83–11
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cambuur · On: Wiebe Kooistra · Off: Rafik El Arguioui
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cambuur · On: Jorn Berkhout · Off: Mathieu Maertens
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Cambuur · On: Iwan Henstra · Off: Ilyes Hamache
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' AZ Alkmaar win: 57% at kick-off, 7% now
90′2–2 at the end. Our 57% on AZ Alkmaar misses, and the record keeps it. 2–2 · 0–100–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' AZ Alkmaar · On: Jerolldino Bergraaf · Off: Calvin Stengs
FTFULL TIME Cambuur 2–2 AZ Alkmaar
FTCambuur 2–2 AZ Alkmaar · AZ Alkmaar win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Cambuur 21%, draw 22%, AZ Alkmaar 57%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Cambuur v AZ AlkmaarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Cambuur win21%

Draw22%

AZ Alkmaar win57%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenueKooi Stadion

RefereeStan Teuben

Line-ups

Cambuur

4-2-3-1

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cambuur

AZ Alkmaar

7Days since last match3

Last match: 11 Oct · Eredivisie

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	AZ Alkmaar	8	+10	19
13	Cambuur	8	−8	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Cambuur

4-2-3-1

1 T. Jansen

2 D. Bouah

4 I. Baouf

14 B. van Duijl

28 M. Costarelli

33 M. Maertens

8 N. Souren

30 J. Çeka

10 R. El Arguioui

11 I. Hamache

13 N. Binder

Coach · J. Plat

Substitutes

24 · M. Kalisvaart

23 · L. Jetten

29 · Iwan Henstra

7 · S. Bouhoudane

3 · J. Berkhout

27 · W. Kooistra

15 · F. Kvam

16 · R. Mulders

22 · L. Plogmann

9 · S. Vink

48 · D. Westerhof

17 · Ethan Apkakou

AZ Alkmaar

4-2-3-1

28 J. De Busser

22 E. Dijkstra

3 W. Goes

4 L. Schouten

5 M. Chávez

8 J. Clasie

6 P. Koopmeiners

24 A. Oufkir

14 C. Stengs

11 R. Daal

9 M. Meerdink

Coach · L. Echteld

Substitutes

27 · Wassim bouziane

17 · V. Byskov

34 · M. de Wit

29 · W. Hoedt

31 · R. Ichihara

30 · D. Kasius

18 · B. Kovacs

21 · D. Kwakman

2 · S. Maikuma

1 · R. Owusu-Oduro

7 · Weslley Patati

54 · Jerolldino Bergraaf

Our number · az alkmaar winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

57% The market64%

Us57%

~~Market~~64%

We make AZ Alkmaar a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cambuur v AZ Alkmaar~~1.17 – 2.06

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 19~~13 v 2

~~The market · AZ Alkmaar win~~64% · ours 57%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AZ Alkmaar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 69% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cambuur win	21%	16%	+5
Draw	22%	20%	+2
AZ Alkmaar win	57%	64%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Both teams to score	60%	62%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	84%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	40%	47%	−7
Cambuur or draw	43%	36%	+7
Cambuur clean sheet	13%	–	–
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.9 7.4 8.3 5.7 3.0 1 4.1 10.2 9.5 6.5 3.4 2 2.8 5.6 5.6 3.8 3 2.2 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cambuur down, AZ Alkmaar across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,675 Eredivisie matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 73.7% of games this season, across 76 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cambuur at home: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). AZ Alkmaar away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Cambuur, 2.06 for AZ Alkmaar. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 13:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AZA 2–1 CAM · CAM 0–1 AZA · AZA 0–0 CAM · CAM 1–3 AZA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 22 Aug

CAMBUUR

LLDWDW2–5 · 1–4 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

AZ ALKMAAR

WWWDWL2–0 · 5–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	8	+10	19
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Twente	8	+8	17
5	Ajax	8	+12	15
6	Groningen	8	+6	14
7	Fortuna Sittard	8	−1	14
8	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
9	GO Ahead Eagles	8	+2	11
10	Excelsior	9	−2	11
11	NEC Nijmegen	8	−1	9
12	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
13	Cambuur	8	−8	8
14	Utrecht	8	−11	8
15	Telstar	9	−8	6
16	ADO Den Haag	9	−9	6
17	PEC Zwolle	8	−15	4
18	Willem II	9	−17	2