AZ Alkmaar v Twente prediction · Eredivisie

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AZ AlkmaarDrawTwente

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · AZ Alkmaar 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

AZ Alkmaar are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AZ Alkmaar 42%, draw 26%, Twente 32%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on AZ Alkmaar v TwenteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

AZ Alkmaar win42%

Draw26%

Twente win32%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 10

VenueAFAS Stadion（Alkmaar）

RefereeAlex Bos

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AZ Alkmaar

Twente

3Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa League

Last match: 22 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
5	Twente	9	+7	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · az alkmaar winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

42% The market43%

Us42%

~~Market~~43%

We make AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AZ Alkmaar v Twente~~1.58 – 1.34

~~Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 29 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 20 v 17~~2 v 5

~~The market · AZ Alkmaar win~~43% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · AZ Alkmaar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AZ Alkmaar win	42%	43%	−1
Draw	26%	24%	+2
Twente win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	56%	65%	−9
Both teams to score	59%	66%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	80%	84%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	34%	44%	−10
AZ Alkmaar or draw	68%	68%	0
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	26%	–	–
Twente clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.4 6.4 4.9 2.2 1 7.7 12.2 7.6 3.4 2 6.7 8.9 5.9 2.7 3 3.6 4.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AZ Alkmaar down, Twente across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,684 Eredivisie matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.3% of games this season, across 85 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AZ Alkmaar at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Twente away: 1.67 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for AZ Alkmaar, 1.34 for Twente. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AZA 2–2 TWE · AZA 1–1 TWE · TWE 1–0 AZA · AZA 3–2 TWE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Eredivisie this season · since 29 Aug

AZ ALKMAAR

WWDWLD5–2 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–2

TWENTE

DWWWDL2–2 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Feyenoord	9	+21	23
2	AZ Alkmaar	9	+10	20
3	PSV Eindhoven	9	+15	19
4	Ajax	9	+15	18
5	Twente	9	+7	17
6	Fortuna Sittard	9	−1	15
7	Groningen	9	+3	14
8	GO Ahead Eagles	10	0	14
9	Heerenveen	9	+4	12
10	Utrecht	10	−10	12
11	Excelsior	9	−2	11
12	NEC Nijmegen	9	−1	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	9	−6	9
14	Cambuur	9	−8	9
15	PEC Zwolle	10	−12	8
16	ADO Den Haag	9	−9	6
17	Telstar	10	−9	6
18	Willem II	9	−17	2