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Ajax v NEC Nijmegen

Ajax

1–1Full time

NEC Nijmegen

Eredivisie · SAT 10 OCT · Johan Cruijff Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:31

Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen AJAX WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Ajax win~~56%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.975

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.236

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 34 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Ajax win at 56%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Ajax 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
2′Little has changed for our model: Ajax 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–22
7′Ajax ahead on 7′ through Tolu Arokodare. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–14–9
11′We said Ajax at 56% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–0 · 78–14–9
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
18′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Jorthy Mokio · Ajax
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen · Tolu Arokodare
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 78% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Ajax win: 56% at kick-off, 54% now
18′⚽ GOAL · 19' Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen · Tjaronn Chery
21′Tjaronn Chery scores for NEC Nijmegen on 19′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 53–25–22
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Bryan Linssen · NEC Nijmegen
45′HALF-TIME Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen
45′SECOND HALF Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen
52′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Gabriel·Bras · NEC Nijmegen
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Ajax 1–2 NEC Nijmegen · Tjaronn Chery
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ajax · On: Abdellah Ouazane · Off: Oscar Gloukh Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Ajax · On: Simon Adingra · Off: Viktor Tsygankov Corrected
67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Abdellah Ouazane · Ajax
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' NEC Nijmegen · On: Ahmetcan Kaplan · Off: Perr Schuurs Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' NEC Nijmegen · On: Mitchel Bakker · Off: Bryan Linssen Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Ajax · On: Marcos Leonardo Santos Almeida · Off: Tolu Arokodare Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Ajax · On: Aaron Bouwman · Off: Lucas Oliveira·Rosa Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ajax · On: Davy Klaassen · Off: Owen Wijndal Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' NEC Nijmegen · On: Jamiro Monteiro · Off: Kevin Kers Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' NEC Nijmegen · On: Willum Thor Willumsson · Off: Tjaronn Chery Corrected
FTFULL TIME Ajax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen
FTAjax 1–1 NEC Nijmegen · Ajax win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ajax win56%

Draw22%

NEC Nijmegen win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 20:00

Venue · Johan Cruijff Arena

Referee · Serdar Gozubuyuk

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3

1 M. ter Stegen

2 L. Rosa

6 T. Kehrer

15 Y. Baas

5 O. Wijndal

24 J. Mokio

4 S. Amrabat

8 J. Brandt

11 V. Tsygankov

99 T. Arokodare

10 O. Gloukh

Coach · Michel

Substitutes

26 · M. Paes

51 · C. Setford

36 · D. Janse

21 · J. Torrents

30 · A. Bouwman

43 · R. Bounida

68 · A. Ouazane

18 · D. Klaassen

28 · Y. Bissouma

20 · O. Edvardsen

38 · Marcos Leonardo

7 · S. Adingra

NEC Nijmegen

3-4-2-1

1 G. Crettaz

73 G. Bras

4 P. Schuurs

24 D. Fonville

21 T. Storm

6 D. Nejasmic

20 N. Lebreton

34 K. Kers

9 T. Chery

10 D. Tadic

30 B. Linssen

Coach · Dick Schreuder

Substitutes

12 · N. Polster

36 · F. Entius

5 · M. Bakker

22 · A. Kaplan

66 · A. Kabar

42 · Y. Moslih

35 · J. Monteiro

8 · I. Hansen-Aaroen

11 · W. T. Willumsson

19 · A. Tahaui

99 · C. Bischoff

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ajax

4-3-3

1 M. ter Stegen

2 L. Rosa

6 T. Kehrer

15 Y. Baas

5 O. Wijndal

24 J. Mokio

4 S. Amrabat

8 J. Brandt

11 V. Tsygankov

99 T. Arokodare

10 O. Gloukh

Coach · Michel

Substitutes

26 · M. Paes

51 · C. Setford

36 · D. Janse

21 · J. Torrents

30 · A. Bouwman

43 · R. Bounida

68 · A. Ouazane

18 · D. Klaassen

28 · Y. Bissouma

20 · O. Edvardsen

38 · Marcos Leonardo

7 · S. Adingra

NEC Nijmegen

3-4-2-1

1 G. Crettaz

73 G. Bras

4 P. Schuurs

24 D. Fonville

21 T. Storm

6 D. Nejasmic

20 N. Lebreton

34 K. Kers

9 T. Chery

10 D. Tadic

30 B. Linssen

Coach · Dick Schreuder

Substitutes

12 · N. Polster

36 · F. Entius

5 · M. Bakker

22 · A. Kaplan

66 · A. Kabar

42 · Y. Moslih

35 · J. Monteiro

8 · I. Hansen-Aaroen

11 · W. T. Willumsson

19 · A. Tahaui

99 · C. Bischoff

Our number · ajax winPublished 10 Oct 20:07

56% The market72%

Us56%

~~Market~~72%

We make Ajax a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ajax win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ajax win	56%	72%	−15
Draw	22%	16%	+6
NEC Nijmegen win	22%	12%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	66%	76%	−10
Both teams to score	64%	66%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	86%	90%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	45%	58%	−13
Ajax or draw	78%	88%	−9
Ajax clean sheet	28%	–	–
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.1 3.5 2.7 1 6.3 9.6 5.7 2.4 2 7.5 9.4 6.0 2.6 3 5.3 6.7 4.3 4 2.9 3.6 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ajax down, NEC Nijmegen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,663 Eredivisie matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Eredivisie matches have gone over 2.5 in 75.0% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ajax at home: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). NEC Nijmegen away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Ajax, 1.28 for NEC Nijmegen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 20:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AJA 1–1 NEC · NEC 2–2 AJA · AJA 0–3 NEC · NEC 1–2 AJA

Form · last six in Eredivisie

AJAX

DWLWWD2–2 · 4–0 · 1–3 · 5–1 · 5–1 · 2–2

NEC NIJMEGEN

WWLDLD4–1 · 3–1 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	PSV Eindhoven	8	+16	19
2	AZ Alkmaar	7	+12	19
3	Feyenoord	7	+18	17
4	Twente	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	−1	13
7	Excelsior	7	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	8	0	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	−1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	−7	5
13	Telstar	7	−7	5
14	Cambuur	7	−9	5
15	Utrecht	7	−13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	−14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	−10	2
18	Willem II	7	−14	2